12th IMF Statistical Forum: Measuring the Implications of AI on the Economy
Washington, DC
November 20-21, 2024
The 12th Statistical Forum of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will take place in hybrid format (in person and virtually) in Washington, D.C. from November 20 to 21, 2024. The Forum is a platform for policymakers, researchers, the private sector, regulators, and compilers of economic and financial data to come together to discuss cutting edge issues in macroeconomic and financial statistics and to build support for statistical improvements.
The theme of this year’s Statistical Forum is Measuring the Implications of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on the Economy. The increased use of AI presents both opportunities and challenges, with significant economic and societal implications. However, the impact of AI on the economy and society remains an evolving field of study. To understand these implications, governments, businesses, individuals require robust and comparable statistics.
The 12th Statistical Forum will explore (i) the transformative potential of AI and where its impact will most likely be felt over the short to medium term, (ii) the impact of AI on jobs and productivity, (iii) the distributional implications of AI, (iv) how AI is being used by firms (including statistical agencies) and regulated by governments, and (v) some early attempts to produce official measures of the “AI industry”, “AI investment”, and the “use of AI”. The Forum will provide participants with an opportunity to share experiences and build on topics of mutual interest through presentations and panel discussions.
Follow the forum: https://imf.webex.com/imf/j.php?MTID=m5f5d68d8a220683a4667a3700a1c38e1
For questions regarding the conference, please email STAForum@imf.org.
Preliminary Agenda
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WEDNESDAY, November 20, 2024 |
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8:30- |
Registration and Light Breakfast |
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9:00- |
Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director, IMF |
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9:05- |
Introduction to the Forum Bert Kroese, Chief Statistician and Data Officer, and Director (Statistics Department, IMF) |
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9:15-10:00 am |
Session I: Opening Address Embracing the future – navigating the opportunities and challenges of AI adoption How are organizations adopting AI and what kind of dangers and opportunities AI represents? AI is a reality which will reshape the operational, strategic, and ethical landscapes of businesses across various sectors, what would be the right balance of risks and rewards of adopting AI in organizations? Keynote Speech: Susan Athey, Professor, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business One-on-one Discussion: Bo Li, Deputy Managing Director, IMF Susan Athey, Professor, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business |
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10:00-10:30 am |
Coffee Break |
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10:30-12:00 pm |
Session II: Exploring the Horizon Where AI is headed, and which sectors will witness the greatest impact As AI develops, its impact on various sectors is becoming increasingly profound and pervasive. The prospect of "turning over the keys" to increasingly autonomous systems raises many questions. This session will explore the rise of AI, its transformative potential, and where its impact will be the greatest. Moderator: Cheng Hoon Lim, Statistics Department, IMF Marek Rozkrut (EY Chief Economist – Europe & Central Asia) (Poland), Macroeconomic Consequences of Generative AI: a Regional Perspective Marina Tavares (IMF Research Department), Gen-AI: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work Thomas Melonio (Agence Française de Développement), AI Investment Potential Index: Mapping Global Opportunities for Sustainable Development Filippo Natoli (Bank of Italy), The Macroeconomic Effects of AI Innovation Questions and Answers |
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12:00-1:30 pm |
Lunch: An Introduction to StatGPT |
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1:30- |
Session III: Shaping the Future AI’s implications on jobs and productivity This session will be dedicated to the implications AI will have on jobs and productivity. New AI tools can potentially change the way we work, raising productivity and boosting growth and incomes. This session will discuss how economies will respond as versatile robots and machine-learning systems potentially displace blue- and white-collar workers. It will consider important questions about how AI will affect the labor market and productivity and the type of statistics that are needed to quantify these changes. Moderator: Andrea Richter Hume, African Department, IMF Janine Berg (International Labor Organization), Generative AI and Jobs: A Global Analysis of Potential Effects on Job Quantity and Quality. Iñaki Aldasoro (Bank of International Settlements), The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Output and Inflation Alex Copestake (Research Department, IMF), AI and Services-Led Growth: Evidence from Indian Job Adverts Chen Zhihan (Singapore Ministry of Manpower), Harnessing AI for Enhanced Efficiency and Data Quality in Labour Market Statistics Questions and Answers |
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3:00- |
Coffee Break |
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3:30- |
Session IV: Panel Discussion AI for all – navigating the unevenness in adopting AI The adoption of technology is often uneven across countries. The result is that some countries are left behind and rather than enjoying the benefits of the technology they bear a significant share of the transitionary costs as the world embraces a new way of working. This session will explore (i) the type of policies countries are putting in place to responsibly adopt AI and ensure transitionary implications are addressed and (ii) the type of data needed to guide the development of these policies and monitor their application. Moderator: David Wessel, Brookings Institute Susan Athey, Professor, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business Indermit Gill, Chief Economist, The World Bank Group Shikoh Gitau, CEO, Qhala Limited Kenneth Kang, Deputy Director, Strategy, Policy & Review Department, IMF |
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5:00- |
Cocktail Reception |
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THURSDAY, November 21, 2024 |
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8:30- |
Light Breakfast |
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9:00-10:15 am |
Session V: Power Dynamics in AI The distributional implications of AI This session will discuss the development of wide-scale large language models which requires substantial investment. A handful of firms control the world’s most complex large language models. The firms that control AI will most likely also ‘control’ the related income flows, resulting in highly concentrated income flows with important distributional implications for the economy and society. This session will explore the type of statistics required to understand the income flows associated with AI, to whom they are flowing, and where they are flowing. Moderator: Ruud de Mooij, Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF Min Fang (University of Florida), The Rise of AI Pricing and Its Economic Impact Ibrahim Abada (Grenoble Ecole de Management), Collusion by Mistake: Does Algorithmic Sophistication Drive Supra-Competitive Profits? Silvia Arini (Badan Pusat Statistik, Indonesia), Measuring the Implications of Artificial Intelligence on the Economy: Survey Data vs Digital Footprint - The Impact of AI Adoption on Firm’s Performance Joshua Gans (University of Toronto), Market Power in Artificial Intelligence Questions and Answers |
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10:15-10:45 am |
Coffee Break |
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10:45-12:00 pm |
Session VI: From Innovation to Regulation How AI is being used by firms and regulated by governments Each day, firms are discovering new use cases for AI. The number of applications is widespread, from adjusting insurance claims, to diagnosing medical conditions and producing and analyzing data. At the same time, there is a recognition that this technology must be used responsibly. This session will explore the various use cases of AI, the latest thinking about the responsible use of AI, and the type of statistics that are needed to understand the evolving uses and their regulation. Moderator: Yan Liu, Legal Department, IMF Liankhankhup Guite (Indian Economic Service), Responsible AI Readiness Index: A Tool to Track the Progress and Impact of Responsible AI Barteld Braaksma (Statistics Netherlands), Towards a Dutch System for AI Monitoring in the Netherlands Maria Fe T. Alcoba (Central Bank of the Philippines), Thinking AI Ahead: Exploring Cognitive Search for Enhanced Collaboration and Information Access in Regulatory Supervision Jan Batzner (Weizenbaum Institute), Tutorial on Establishing Benchmarks for the Evaluation of Commercial Large Language Models Using Public Data Questions and Answers |
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12:00-1:00 pm |
Session VII: Measuring AI Some early attempts to produce official measures of the “AI industry”, “AI investment”, and the “use of AI” This session will highlight the work by the official statistical community to measure the size, scope, and structure of the “AI industry,” “AI investment”, and “AI use” and how the community adapts the internationally endorsed economic statistics reporting standards (such as the Balance of Payments Manual and the System of National Accounts) to capture this activity better. Moderator: Jim Tebrake, Statistics Department, IMF Erich Heinz Strassner (Statistics Department, IMF), AI, Data, and the Update of the System of National Accounts Tina Highfill (US Bureau of Economic Analysis), Concepts and Challenges of Measuring Production of Artificial Intelligence in the U.S. Economy Flavio Calvino (OECD), A Portrait of AI Adopters Across Countries: Firm Characteristics, Assets’ Complementarities and Productivity Lamya A. Alomair (Saudi Arabia Ministry of Communications and Information Technology), Forecasting the Digital Economy: Saudi Arabia’s Roadmap for AI-Driven Growth Questions and Answers |
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1:00- |
Lunch |
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1:45- |
Session VIII: Panel Discussion Measuring AI within macroeconomic statistics This session will discuss some of the challenges to measuring the impact of AI on the economy. The session will discuss how statisticians need to update frameworks and data sources to estimate the effect of AI on GDP and aggregate productivity improvements, gains and savings across various industries, and its impact on employment and labor markets. Moderator: Bert Kroese, Statistics Department, IMF David Wasshausen, US Bureau of Economic Analysis Alvaro Diez Soto, Eurostat Dominik Rozkrut, Poland Statistics Office Annabelle Mourougane, OECD Ivan Murenzi, Rwanda Statistics Office |
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3:00- |
Session IX: Keynote Address AI at a crossroad – opportunities, risks, and the path forward We are hearing about some of the extraordinary ways AI could benefit our societies, including helping us live healthier lives and accelerating scientific breakthroughs. Many experts also believe the technology could provide significant economic benefits, for example by providing a serious boost to productivity. This could help lift the global economy at a time when the growth outlook for the medium term is the weakest in decades. This said, many also agree that AI’s promise comes with considerable uncertainty and significant risks around labor market transition, security, privacy, misinformation, and ethical concerns. This session will explore where AI is headed over the short and median term and what kind of policy is needed to leverage the opportunities and address the challenges. In Conversation with the First Managing Director: Moderator: Alex Pigman, Agence France Presse Gita Gopinath, First Deputy Managing Director, IMF David Weller, Senior Director of Emerging Tech, Competitiveness & Sustainability Policy, Google |
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3:50- |
Closing Remarks Bert Kroese, Chief Statistician and Data Officer, and Director (Statistics Department, IMF) |