Selected Issues Papers
IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries.
2024
February 21, 2024
2022 FIFA World Cup: Economic Impact on Qatar and Regional Spillovers
Description: Qatar hosted the 2022 FIFA World Cup (WC) successfully and took the opportunity to further develop its non-hydrocarbon economy. Near-term contributions to Qatar’s economy, from visitors’ spending and WC-related broadcasting revenue, of up to 1 percent of GDP was comparable to cross-country experiences. The event generated positive regional economic spillovers as a sizeable share of spectators stayed in and commuted from neighboring GCC countries. Longer-term contributions were significant—the large investment in general infrastructure ahead of the WC drove much of the non-hydrocarbon sector’s growth in the past decade. The high-quality infrastructure and global visibility brought by the WC should be leveraged to further promote diversification and achieve the National Vision 2030.
February 21, 2024
From HydroCarbon to Hightech: Mapping the Economic Transformation of Qatar
Description: Qatar’s state-led, hydrocarbon intensive growth model has delivered rapid growth and substantial improvements in living standards over the past several decades. Guided by the National Vision 2030, an economic transformation is underway toward a more dynamic, diversified, knowledge-based, sustainable, and private sector-led growth model. As Qatar is finalizing its Third National Development Strategy to make the final leap toward Vision 2030, this paper aims to identify key structural reforms needed, quantify their potential impact on the economy, and shed light on the design of a comprehensive reform agenda ahead. The paper finds that labor market reforms could bring substantial benefits, particularly reforms related to increasing the share of skilled foreign workers. Certain reforms to further improve the business environment, such as improving access to finance, could also have large growth impact. A comprehensive, well-integrated, and properly sequenced reform package to exploit complementarities across reforms could boost Qatar’s potential growth significantly.
February 20, 2024
Recent Trends of Informality in Greece: Evidence from Subnational Data
Description: This paper explores the evolution of informality in Greece as it is widely considered one of the major structural impediments to fiscal capacity and sustainable growth. It finds that informality has dropped significantly in Greece in recent years, although there were temporary increases during the sovereign debt crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Lower informality is also found to be associated with higher subsequent per capita GDP growth and higher tax revenue. Moreover, Greece’s significant recent progress in digitalization appears to have helped reduce informality. There remains scope to further reduce informality by accelerating digitalization and the ongoing pro-growth structural reforms.
February 20, 2024
The Cost-of-Living Crisis: Impact and Policy Support to Households, Evidence from Micro-Level Data: Greece
Description: The Greek government has provided substantial support to households to cope with the high cost of living in 2022–2023. This paper leverages on the rich micro-level data on household consumption in the Household Budget Survey to study the distributional impact of price increases. Policy simulations suggest that targeted support measures tailored to the recipients’ needs remain the most effective way to mitigate the vulnerable households’ income loss.
February 20, 2024
Macroprudential Policy Calibration for Greece: Simulations for Borrower-Based Measures
Description: The Greek financial system has remained resilient underpinned by strengthening banks’ balance sheets, but still faces significant challenges ahead including the re-emergence of imbalances in the real estate market. Recognizing these imbalances, the authorities have recently introduced the necessary legal framework for setting borrower-based measures (BBMs), paving the way to activate both income- and collateral-based measures in near term. Simulations, which employ a quantitative framework combining micro- and macro-level data, show that BBMs would help enhance household resilience, with synergies when caps on debt service-to-income (DSTI) and loan-to-value (LTV) ratios are jointly implemented, leading over time to the more resilient banking system against potential risks. Caps could initially be set at less binding levels and gradually tightened based on a systemic risk assessment.
February 15, 2024
Domestic and External Drivers of Inflation: The Gambia
Description: This paper investigates the drivers of headline inflation and the degree of exchange rate passthrough (ERPT) in The Gambia over the period 2014-2023. The analysis highlights the decisive long-term roles of global prices of commodities (food, oil and fertilizer), the exchange rate, and the domestic output gap. The short-run dynamics of inflation points to the roles of global food price and the second-round effects of changes in food prices and the output gap. Monetary policy has the potential to tame inflation in the short run provided the monetary policy rate is adjusted rapidly and boldly. Lastly, there is evidence of an asymmetric ERPT to domestic prices, and the size of currency depreciation matters for inflation dynamics.
February 15, 2024
Climate Change Vulnerabilities and Strategies: The Gambia
Description: This paper analyzes The Gambia's vulnerability to climate change, highlighting risks like flooding, droughts, and coastal erosion, which threaten food security and key industries. It details The Gambia's climate strategies, including the National Climate Change Policy, 2050 Climate Vision, and Long-Term Climate-Neutral Development Strategy, targeting net-zero emissions by 2050. Despite its minimal global emissions contribution, The Gambia's focus on renewable energy expansion offers dual benefits for energy security and development. The paper underscores the need for improved land management, crop diversification, and irrigation to boost adaptive capacity and resilience, ensuring food security amidst climate challenges.
February 15, 2024
Macroeconomic and Distributional Implications of Gender Gaps: The Gambia
Description: We present the current status of labor market gender gaps in The Gambia and examine the macroeconomic and distributional gains from closing the gaps. We also study the impacts of high costs of living and the determinants of poverty. Closing labor market gender gaps, would significantly boost GDP, government revenues, women’s earnings, and reduce income inequality. High food costs adversely affect the levels of consumption in the bottom four quartiles of the income distribution. Lack of access to finance, living in rural areas, lack of employment, low levels of education, and exposure to climate shocks contribute to higher poverty levels.
February 9, 2024
Opportunities and Challenges of Climate Adaptation Policies: Republic of Moldova
Description: Moldova is more vulnerable to climate change than the rest of Europe, due to its (i) higher sensitivity to changes in climate conditions (reflecting its heavier reliance on agriculture, a comparatively-larger rural population, high dependence on energy imports and limited diversification of energy supply sources, and limited financial resources to provide high-quality public services); and (ii) weaker adaptative capacity to climate shocks (due to its comparatively weaker disaster preparedness strategy, low adaptation in the agriculture sector and poorer quality of infrastructure). Adaptation investments can substantially reduce output losses caused by natural disasters, are more cost-efficient than responding to disasters ex-post, and can contribute to boost Moldova’s long-term economic growth and support its development objectives.
February 9, 2024
Corruption and Economic Growth in Moldova: A Reexamination
Description: This paper examines corruption in Moldova, analyzing its impact on economic growth and progress in implementing earlier IMF recommendations on anti-corruption and anti-money laundering (AML). Despite solid legal frameworks, corruption remains a significant challenge, impeding growth and EU convergence. Drawing from regional successes, the paper stresses the importance of specialized anti-corruption agencies, robust prosecution, civil society involvement, and international expertise. Moldova has made strides in strengthening its legal and institutional infrastructure, but challenges like delayed corruption case adjudication persist. Recommendations include enhancing the Anti-corruption Prosecution Office's investigative capacity and establishing specialized adjudication infrastructure.