Working Papers
2023
June 2, 2023
Macroprudential Policy and Bank Systemic Risk: Does Inflation Targeting Matter?
Description: This paper investigates macroprudential policy effects on bank systemic risk and the role of inflation targeting in such effects. Using bank-level data for 45 countries comprising various monetary and exchange rate regimes, our regime-dependent dynamic panel regression results point to complementarities between monetary and macroprudential policies. We find that the tightening of most macroprudential tools—including DSTI and LTV limits, and capital requirements—reduces bank systemic risk further under inflation targeting. Our findings lend credence to the view that inflation targeting strengthens macroprudential policy roles in mitigating financial stability risks.
June 2, 2023
The Distributional and Fiscal Implications of Public Utility Pricing
Description: The setting of public utility prices involves balancing various competing government policy objectives, from equity concerns to ensuring the financial sustainability of providers and balancing public finances. In practice, public utility pricing often departs significantly from government objectives and tends to be characterized by unnecessarily complex price schedules, below cost-recovery tariff rates, and sectoral inefficiencies that contribute to large fiscal costs. Countries commonly embark on utility pricing reform in response to these heavy fiscal pressures. The paper discusses various reform options available to governments, with a focus on residential pricing schedules, highlighting their fiscal, financial, redistributive, and efficiency implications.
June 2, 2023
Fiscal Anatomy of Two Crises and an Interlude
Description: The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 pandemic are associated with the largest increases in public debt ratios since World War II. We decompose unexpected changes in debt ratios into the role of surprises in economic growth, interest costs, policy measures, and other factors. During both crises, lower-than-expected output contributed the most to higher-than-expected debt ratios. Fiscal policy measures recorded in the public deficit were similar in the two episodes. We also analyze the decade-long interlude (2010-19). Rather than declining as foreseen in a normative scenario, debt ratios remained stable on average, as interest rates, policy adjustment and, in some countries, economic growth turned out lower than expected.
June 2, 2023
Quasi-Fiscal Implications of Central Bank Crisis Interventions: Case Studies
Description: This paper presents case studies of central bank crisis interventions during the Covid-19 and the Global Financial Crises in four jurisdictions (Canada, Chile, the United Kingdom, and the United States). The paper serves as an Annex to the main IMF Working Paper WP/23/114 ‘Quasi-Fiscal Implications of Central Bank Crisis Interventions.’
June 2, 2023
Quasi-Fiscal Implications of Central Bank Crisis Interventions
Description: We develop a stylized balance sheet framework to help identify ‘quasi-fiscal’ components of central bank crisis interventions and show how sources of fiscal risk are created from both the new claims and how they are funded. Combining central bank balance sheet data with survey evidence from intervention announcements, we document the risks to the public sector balance sheet from central banks’ interventions in response to the Covid-19 crisis, including non-conventional lending to the financial and non-financial sectors and large-scale purchases of government securities. Case study analysis indicates that management of fiscal risks from central bank crisis interventions varies greatly across countries, although several good practices can be identified.
June 2, 2023
Measuring Multinational Production with Foreign Direct Investment Statistics: Recent Trends, Challenges, and Developments
Description: In a complex global production landscape, the quest for measures of economic activity by multinational enterprises (MNEs) has become more pressing. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) statistics, which capture financing aspects of MNEs, have often been used as a proxy for multinational production given their wide availability and cross-country comparability, but concerns that multinational production occurs in different countries than where financial positions are recorded call this practice into question. This paper revisits the main objections to the use of FDI as a proxy for multinational production, explores counterarguments, and provides guidance on the use of FDI statistics to measure multinational production.
May 26, 2023
Will Working from Home Stick in Developing Economies?
Description: In developing economies, a shift to working from home during the COVID-19 pandemic varies substantially. An increase in teleworking days per week ranges from 0.7 to 17.6 percentage points across 10 developing countries covered by an online survey to about 500 respondents per country. An estimated income discount associated with telework disappeared temporarily at the onset of the pandemic. A calibrated model indicates that workers’ preferences to telework may largely depend on their educational attainments. Whether telework will sustain in these countries could depend on obstacles to telework, particularly for workers with less education, and a degree of economy-wide externality.
May 26, 2023
Dollar Exchange Rate volatility and Productivity Growth in Emerging Markets: Evidence from Firm Level Data
Description: This paper examines the impact of Dollar exchange rate volatility on firm productivity in Emerging Markets economies (EMs). Using firm level data covering 16 EMs over the period 1998 -2019, the paper shows that dollar exchange rate volatility reduces firm productivity growth. Exploring channels, its finds that the results are driven by countries with low level of financial development, high dollar invoicing, high bilateral trade with the US, high collective bargaining coverage and open capital account. Exploring the role of policy, it finds that Foreign Exchange Interventions (FXI) dampen this impact on firm productivty. Further, exploiting firm level data, the paper shows that dollar exchange rate volatility operates also through the financial friction channel, reducing contemporaneous investments, especially at firms with low liquidity buffers and weak balance sheet (high leverage). The role of financial frictions is confirmed through the finding that younger firms, more likely to face financial constraints, are also found to be more vulnerable to dollar exchange rate volatility. In addition, we also find evidence of a large and persistent effect on firms with highly irreversible investment, lending support for the real option channel of uncertainty on the dollar exchange rate. These findings are robust to a battery of tests, including controlling for uncertainty, financial crises and using an instrumental variable strategy exploiting US monetary policy shocks as an exogenous source of variation in dollar exchange rate volatility.
May 26, 2023
Financial Heterogeneity, Investment, and Firm Interactions
Description: Recent literature has shown that corporate indebtedness affects firm-level investment behavior but not necessarily aggregate business cycles. I argue that interactions among heterogeneous firms play an important role in equilibrium. After a downturn, financially unconstrained firms in financially constrained industries significantly increase capital ex-penditure to substitute depressed investment by their financially constrained competitors. The increase in investment, primarily driven by small and medium firms, leads to substantial gains in future sales. Using a new empirical approach, I further show that equilibrium effects are unambiguously countercyclical because the increase in investment by unconstrained firms does not crowd out investment by financially constrained competitors. The “competitive interaction channel” underscored in this paper may play an important role in mitigating the impact of negative shocks in macroeconomic models with financial heterogeneity.
May 26, 2023
The Anatomy of the Financial Inclusion Gap in the Caucasus and Central Asia
Description: This paper analyses how financial inclusion in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) compares to peers in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Using individual-level survey data, it shows that the probability of being financially included, as proxied by account ownership in financial institutions, is substantially lower across gender, income groups, and education levels in all CCA countries relative to CEE comparators. Key determinants of this financial inclusion gap are lower financial and human development indices, weak rule of law, and physical access to bank branches or ATMs. This suggests that targeted policies aimed at boosting financial and human development, strengthening the rule of law, and supporting fintech solutions can broaden financial inclusion in the CCA.