Policy Papers
2015
October 27, 2015
Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low-Income and Other Developing Countries — Background Paper — Country Experiences
Description:
This background paper focuses on the experiences of evolving monetary policy frameworks in nine individual countries and three thematic groupings of countries.
The country case studies are complemented by analyses of common issues faced by countries in currency unions in the CFA franc zone, selected resource rich countries, and advanced economies and emerging markets during their modernization process of monetary policy regimes.
Finally, the background paper also contains a discussion on the benefits of effective communication in conducting monetary policy.
October 23, 2015
Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low-Income and Other Developing Countries
Description:
Over the past two decades, many low- and lower-middle income countries (LLMICs) have improved control over fiscal policy, liberalized and deepened financial markets, and stabilized inflation at moderate levels. Monetary policy frameworks that have helped achieve these ends are being challenged by continued financial development and increased exposure to global capital markets. Many policymakers aspire to move beyond the basics of stability to implement monetary policy frameworks that better anchor inflation and promote macroeconomic stability and growth.
Many of these LLMICs are thus considering and implementing improvements to their monetary policy frameworks. The recent successes of some LLMICs and the experiences of emerging and advanced economies, both early in their policy modernization process and following the global financial crisis, are valuable in identifying desirable features of such frameworks.
This paper draws on those lessons to provide guidance on key elements of effective monetary policy frameworks for LLMICs.
October 15, 2015
Reforming the Fund's Policy on Non-Toleration of Arrears to Official Creditors
Description:
Background: As a follow-up to the May 2013 Executive Board’s discussion of the paper on Sovereign Debt Restructuring: Recent Developments and Implications for the Fund’s Legal and Policy Framework (hereinafter, the “2013 Paper“), this paper proposes a reform to the Fund’s policy on non-toleration of arrears owed to official bilateral creditors (“NTP”) with a view to addressing the major issues related to official sector involvement (OSI) discussed in the 2013 Paper. Unlike the Fund’s lending-into-arrears (“LIA”) policy for private creditors, the NTP prevents Fund lending to countries if they owe unresolved arrears to official bilateral creditors, unless the arrears are covered by a Paris Club agreement or the creditor consents to the Fund providing financing.
Nature of the problem: As staff foreshadowed in the 2013 Paper, several aspects of the current NTP present challenges in a changing and increasingly diverse landscape for official bilateral finance. For example, the NTP’s reliance on the practices and conventions of the Paris Club creates challenges in an environment where a growing number of creditors are non-Paris Club members. In particular, the NTP’s dependence on the Paris Club’s comparability of treatment principle to deem away arrears to non-Paris Club bilateral creditors is difficult to justify in circumstances where a Paris Club agreement is not sufficiently representative and the bulk of official bilateral claims are held by non-Paris Club creditors. Further, where there is no Paris Club agreement, the current policy can give individual official bilateral creditors a veto over Fund lending decisions, drawing no distinction between creditors that are contributing to the financing requirements of the program and those that are not, thus leaving the system vulnerable to holdouts.
Proposed modification: Staff’s proposal envisages a two-step process: in the first step, all creditors would be encouraged to reach a consensus. While the Paris Club is currently a well-established forum for OSI, the Fund would also recognize agreements among creditors reached in other representative fora, should such fora emerge. If an agreement is reached through the Paris Club and the creditor group so formed represents a significant portion of total official bilateral claims, the Fund would rely on its current practices and deem away arrears to nonparticipating creditors based on the Club’s comparability of treatment principle. Only when an agreement cannot be reached (i) with a representative group of creditors in the Paris Club, or (ii) with each creditor in an alternative grouping or bilaterally, would the Fund consider lending into arrears owed to official bilateral creditors in carefully circumscribed circumstances. The decision to lend in these situations would be subject to a need for prompt Fund assistance, an assessment that the debtor is making good faith efforts to reach an agreement and that the absence of a debt restructuring is due to the unwillingness of the creditor to reach an agreement consistent with the parameters of the Fund-supported program, and a judgment on whether the decision to lend could negatively affect the Fund’s ability to mobilize official financing packages in the future.
Likely impact: Staff’s proposal will strengthen incentives for collective action among official bilateral creditors in situations where OSI is necessary. The two-step process encourages individual official bilateral creditors to be part of a multilateral agreement, thus reducing the risk that the Fund would be prevented from assisting a member in need because certain official bilateral creditors are seeking more favorable treatment of their claims at the expense of other contributing creditors. Importantly, the policy will continue to protect official bilateral creditors, as any decision to lend into arrears will be subject to the debtor’s good faith efforts, will be applied in a way that preserves the Fund’s ability to mobilize official financing packages in future, and be subject to the Board’s approval.
Next steps: If the Board supports the proposed modification, the new policy will apply immediately to all future Fund disbursements (including under existing arrangements) with respect to existing and future arrears owed to official bilateral creditors.
October 14, 2015
Structural Reforms and Macroeconomic Performance - Country Cases
Description: As a companion piece to the Board paper on Structural Reforms and Macroeconomic Performance: Initial Considerations for the Fund, this paper presents a selection of case studies on the structural reform experiences of member countries. These papers update the Board on work since the Triennial Surveillance Review toward strengthening the Fund’s capacity to analyze and, where relevant, offer policy advice on macro-relevant structural issues. The paper builds on the already considerable analytical work underway across the Fund, setting out considerations to support a more strategic approach going forward.
October 14, 2015
Structural Reforms and Macroeconomic Performance - Initial Considerations for the Fund
Description:
Structural policies have become a prominent feature of today’s macroeconomic policy discussion. For many countries, lackluster economic growth and high unemployment cloud the outlook. With fewer traditional policy options, policymakers are increasingly focused on the complementary role of structural policies in promoting more durable job-rich growth. In particular, the G20 has emphasized the essential role of structural reforms in ensuring strong, sustainable and balanced growth.
Against this backdrop, the 2014 Triennial Surveillance Review (TSR) called for further work to enhance the Fund’s ability to selectively provide more expert analysis and advice on structural issues, particularly where there is broad interest among member countries. The purpose of this paper is to engage the Board on staff’s post-TSR work toward strengthening the Fund’s capacity to analyze and, where relevant, offer policy advice on macro-relevant structural issues.
October 6, 2015
Arab Countries in Transition - Economic Outlook and Key Challenges
Description: The Arab Countries in Transition (ACTs) have had diverging trajectories over the past year and face an uncertain outlook.1 Improvements in the European economy, lower oil prices, and some progress on the policy front have provided tailwinds to growth, which is expected to pick up significantly in Egypt and Morocco. At the same time, unemployment remains high. Moreover, several of the ACTs have also suffered from intensifying and spreading conflicts that cause widespread human suffering and sizeable economic challenges. Libya and Yemen are directly affected, while spillovers from these conflicts and the civil wars in Iraq and Syria weigh on Jordan and Tunisia, as well as other countries in the region (e.g., Lebanon, Djibouti), Turkey and Europe. These spillovers come most prominently in the form of large refugee flows, deteriorating security, and pressures on economic infrastructures and labor markets. All these factors add urgency to the need in the Arab countries to strengthen economic resilience and address long-standing sources of inequity and exclusion. Coordinated and scaled-up support from the international community will be also critical in stabilizing conditions in the region, addressing the refugee crisis, and securing a more promising economic future for the ACTs in this challenging environment.
September 29, 2015
The Acting Chair’s Summing Up - Independent Evaluation Office—Self Evaluation at the IMF—An IEO Assessment - Executive Board Meeting 15/89 - September 18, 2015
Description: Executive Directors welcomed the report by the Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) on self-evaluation at the IMF, the accompanying statement on the report by the Managing Director, and the IEO’s response. They were encouraged by the report’s findings that there is considerable self-evaluation at the IMF; that such self-evaluation is generally of high quality; and that it contributes usefully to reforms in policies and operations. At the same time, they also noted the finding that there are gaps and weaknesses in the Fund’s self-evaluation. Against this background, Directors considered the recommendations of the report to adopt an overall policy for self-evaluation; conduct self-assessments for every IMF-supported program; explicitly set out a plan for how policies and operations will be self-evaluated; and better disseminate lessons from self-evaluation. In this context, many Directors supported strengthening the current mechanisms for self-evaluation. More broadly, Directors agreed on the importance of having a clearly articulated approach to self-evaluation that builds on current processes, takes due account of resource constraints, and adapts over time to changing circumstances. Directors also concurred on the need to better disseminate lessons from self-evaluation. The implementation plan would be a first opportunity to reflect on how best to carry these considerations forward.
September 29, 2015
Managing Director’s Global Policy Agenda to the International Monetary and Financial Committee
Description:
The Executive Summary is also available in:
Arabic , Chinese, French, Japanese, Russian, and Spanish.
The membership is facing a rapidly changing and uncertain world. The United States is poised to raise interest rates amid ongoing recovery, China’s expected slowdown as it rebalances growth is creating larger-than-anticipated spillovers, and commodity producers are facing the end of a long cycle of high commodity prices. These necessary transitions pose challenges, particularly for emerging and low-income developing countries, where prospects have dwindled the most.
Policymakers are increasingly grappling with difficult policy trade-offs. Faced with limited room to maneuver and the need to adapt to new realities, what relative weight should be placed on supporting demand and current activity, on reducing financial risks as financial conditions tighten, and on implementing urgently needed structural reforms to revive future growth?
Policies need to reflect country circumstances and coalesce into a new multilateralism. Mutually reinforcing policies are needed to support growth today, invest in resilience and safeguard financial stability, and implement the structural reforms needed for a sustainable and inclusive future. Policies should reflect member circumstances and also add up to a coherent whole—to ensure that demand is created not substituted, market resilience is enhanced not circumvented, and that structural reforms are enacted not delayed. Cooperation is vital in areas such as the global financial safety net, trade, climate change, international taxation, sustainable development goals (SDGs), and demographic transitions and migration. The Fund will support the membership at this juncture. The Fund has both the universal membership and mandate to address growth and economic stability issues at the national and global levels. To support the membership most effectively, the Fund will focus on three priorities that best reflect this new AIM:
• Agility. Advice will focus on policies to support members cope with evolving transitions—respond to tighter and more volatile financial conditions and implement effective macro-structural reforms. The lending framework will deliver financial assistance quickly where needed. Delivery of technical assistance and training will be enhanced by greater use of online tools.
• Integration. In the face of growing policy trade-offs, the Fund will support its members by better integrating policy advice across sectors, embracing evolving priorities, promoting integration of global, regional, and bilateral safety nets, and better leveraging synergies between surveillance and capacity building.
• Member-Focused. With policy concerns evolving rapidly and advice becoming more dependent on country-specifics, the Fund will deepen its engagement with members, better deliver its knowledge, and ensure faster feedback to policymakers. The Fund continues to refine its core work—surveillance, lending, and capacity building—and to attain greater intellectual and cultural diversity to respond to this changing global environment and its corresponding policy challenges. To further improve services to the membership, Fund activities need to be fully supported by adequate financial, human, budgetary, and technological resources.
September 29, 2015
Provisional Agenda for the Thirty-Second Meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee
Description: The following is the provisional agenda for the Thirty-Second Meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, which is to be convened in Lima, Peru, October 9-10, 2015.