Policy Papers
2016
May 2, 2016
Investment and Growth in the Arab World - A Scoping Note
Description: Enhancing public and private investment, but also ensuring that this translates into higher growth and employment, have long been key policy challenges in Arab countries. Reflecting an improvement in policies and global conditions, investment rates in Arab countries have increased over the past couple of decades. In spite of this—and notwithstanding significant differences across the region—investment has on average been somewhat weaker than in peer countries and less effective at generating growth. Private investment, particularly foreign direct investment (FDI), has underperformed significantly. And while public capital spending has benefited from high oil prices in resource–rich countries, it has continued to lag in oil importers...
April 29, 2016
Economic Diversification in Oil-Exporting Arab Countries
Description:
countries face similar challenges to create jobs and foster more inclusive growth. The current environment of likely durable low oil prices has exacerbated these challenges. Greater economic diversification would unlock job-creating growth, increase resilience to oil price volatility and improve prospects for future generations. Macro-economic stability and supportive regulatory and institutional frameworks are key prerequisites for economic diversification...
April 14, 2016
Provisional Agenda for the Thirty-Third Meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee
Description: Provisional agenda for the Thirty-Third Meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, which convenes in Washington, DC, April 16, 2016.
April 12, 2016
Case Studies on Managing Government Compensation and Employment - Institutions, Policies, and Reform Challenges
Description: This supplement presents country case studies reviewing country experiences with managing wage bill pressures, which are the basis for the compensation and employment reform lessons identified in the main paper. The selection of countries for the case studies reflects past studies carried out by either the IMF or the World Bank in the context of technical assistance or bilateral surveillance (Table 1). These studies provide important insights into the different sources of wage bill pressures as well as the reform challenges governments have faced when addressing these pressures over the short and medium term. The studies cover 20 countries, including five advanced economies, six countries from sub-Saharan Africa, two countries in developing Asia, one country in the Middle East and North Africa, three countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, and three countries in Central and Eastern Europe and the CIS. The structure of each case study is similar, with each study starting with a presentation of the institutional coverage and framework for setting and managing the wage bill; a description of employment and compensation levels, including their comparison with the private sector; and a discussion of the challenges that motivated the need for reforms and, when applicable, the reforms implemented and lessons derived from these.
April 8, 2016
Review of the Fund's Income Position for FY 2016 and FY 2017-2018
Description:
The Fund’s total net income for FY 2016 including surcharges is projected at about SDR 1.0 billion or some SDR 0.15 billion higher than expected in April 2015. Lending income continues to be the main source of income and is in line with April 2015 estimates. Investment income has fallen reflecting the decline in equity markets that exceeded the modest returns on fixed income securities. As a result of the 5-yearly review of key actuarial assumptions, the IAS 19 adjustment (relating to reporting of employee benefits) is expected to contribute about SDR 0.3 billion to net income in FY 2016.
The paper recommends that GRA net income of SDR 1.1 billion for FY 2016 (which excludes projected losses of the gold endowment), be placed equally to the special and general reserve. After the placement to reserves, precautionary balances are projected to reach SDR 15.2 billion at the end of FY 2016.
Following the completion of the Board’s review of the investment strategy for the Fixed-Income Subaccount, the paper further proposes to transfer currencies equivalent to the increase of the Fund’s reserves for FY 2014 and FY 2015 (totaling SDR 2.6 billion) and FY 2016 (estimated at SDR 1.1 billion), from the GRA to the Investment Account.
The paper proposes that the margin for the rate of charge be set at 100 basis points for the two years FY 2017 and FY 2018. This follows a comprehensive review of the underlying factors relevant for the establishment of the margin this year and also takes into account the impact of the inclusion of the renminbi in the SDR basket on Fund income and borrowing costs. The projections for FY 2017 and FY 2018 point to a net income position of SDR 1 billion and SDR 0.7 billion, respectively. These projections are subject to considerable uncertainty and are sensitive to a number of assumptions.
April 8, 2016
Managing Government Compensation and Employment - Institutions, Policies, and Reform Challenges
Description: Government compensation and employment policies are important for the efficient delivery of public services which are crucial for the functioning of economies and the general prosperity of societies. On average, spending on the wage bill absorbs around one-fifth of total spending. Cross-country variation in wage spending reflects, in part, national choices about the government’s role in priority sectors, as well as variations in the level of economic development and resource constraints.
April 8, 2016
The Consolidated Medium-Term Income and Expenditure Framework
Description:
The medium-term income projections have been updated from the April 2015 outlook and the February review of the adequacy of precautionary balances. The main changes to the outlook stem from a more gradual rise in the SDR interest rates and lower surcharge income following the lowering of the surcharges threshold.
The revised projections still show a positive forecast for net operational income (and surcharges) over the medium term, albeit lower than projected a year ago. Lending income (excluding surcharges) is marginally higher compared with earlier estimates. Surcharge income is estimated to be lower, reflecting the adjustment of the surcharges thresholds following the implementation of quota increases under the 14th General Review. Projected income from the Fixed-Income Subaccount of the Investment Account and interest-free resources are expected to increase more gradually over the medium-term as market indicators now point to a slower rise in interest rates from their current low levels. The expenditure path includes an increase in real terms of about ½ percent in the net administrative budget for FY 2017 to accommodate rising costs for physical and IT security. Moreover, reflecting further upward pressure over the medium term and uncertainty about the scope for offsetting savings, the traditional baseline assumption of a constant real spending envelope in the outer years is complemented by an alternative scenario with a further moderate spending increase of 1½ percent, phased in over FY 2018–19. In addition, a lower projected U.S. dollar/SDR exchange rate increases the expenses in SDR terms.
April 4, 2016
Progress Report to the International Monetary and Financial Committee on the Activities of the Independent Evaluation Office of the IMF
Description: This progress report presents the key conclusions and recommendations of the IEO evaluation of data and statistics at the IMF that was discussed by the Executive Board on March 17, 2016. It also summarizes the IMF's plan, approved by the Board in December 2015, for implementing the recommendations from the IEO evaluation of the IMF Response to the Financial and Economic Crisis and describes the IEO’s ongoing work.
April 1, 2016
Staff Note for the G-20—A Guiding Framework for Structural Reforms
Description: This note responds to a request from the G20 for IMF assistance in helping develop priorities and guiding principles for structural reforms. Structural reforms have long been a central element of the G20’s strategy of achieving job-rich growth, and G20 countries have made over 1,000 structural policy commitments in their national growth strategies. However, implementation of these commitments has been relatively weak so far. Faster progress on structural reforms is therefore needed to support growth in the near term and bolster potential growth in the medium term—and more generally to make economies more innovative, flexible, and resilient.
April 1, 2016
Update on the Financing of the Fund's Concessional Assistance and Debt Relief to Low-Income Member Countries
Description:
Better targeted support to LICs. In July 2015, the Executive Board approved measures to strengthen the financial safety net for low-income countries. Specifically, access norms and limits to the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT) resources were increased by 50 percent and the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) interest rate was set permanently at zero. In addition, four countries graduated from PRGT eligibility. Together with a rebalancing of the mix of blended financing towards more use of general Fund resources for better-off PRGT-eligible countries, these reforms were broadly resource neutral and left the PRGT self-sustaining framework intact.
Demand for PRGT resources up strongly. In 2015, demand reached SDR 1.5 billion, largely in response to shocks to commodity prices and adverse global financial market conditions. Demand is expected to remain elevated in 2016, as the global environment continues to be challenging.