Policy Papers
2015
May 28, 2015
Staff Guidance Note on the Implementation of Public Debt Limits in Fund-Supported Programs
Description:
In December 2014, the Executive Board approved new guidelines on the use of public debt limits in Fund-supported programs. The new guidelines enter into effect on June 30, 2015. The key changes with respect to the existing debt limits policy include, inter alia, the broadening of the policy to encompass all public debt rather than only external public debt; an integrated treatment of external public debt, covering both concessional and non-concessional debt; and closer links between public debt vulnerabilities and the use and specification of public debt conditionality.
This note provides operational and technical guidance related to the implementation of the debt limits policy. In particular, it sets out how the policy should be implemented in country-specific circumstances.
Full text also available in French
May 27, 2015
Reform of the Fund's Policy on Poverty Reduction Strategies in Fund Engagement with Low-Income Countries - Proposals
Description: Poverty reduction strategies (PRS) are central to Fund-supported economic and financial programs in low-income countries (LICs). The joint IMF-World Bank’s Heavily Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) Initiative introduced the PRS approach and established documentation requirements centered on the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP). The PRS approach has also been a cornerstone for the Fund’s concessional financing, currently the Extended Credit Facility (ECF), and has been extended to the Policy Support Instruments (PSI), the non-financing instrument for LICs, with PRS documentation serving as the operational framework for development of strategies to promote growth and reduce poverty under Fund-supported programs.
May 7, 2015
IMF Engagement with Countries in Post-Conflict and Fragile Situations - Stocktaking
Description: This review examines experience in implementing the lessons drawn in the 2011 Board paper on the Fund’s engagement with countries in post-conflict and fragile situations (more commonly referred to as fragile states (FS)) and the ensuing 2012 Guidance Note. The focus is on capacity building, Fund facilities and program design, and policy support. The review identifies scope to improve the Fund’s engagement in selected areas.
May 1, 2015
Making Public Investment More Efficient
Description:
Public investment supports the delivery of key public services, connects citizens and firms to economic opportunities, and can serve as an important catalyst for economic growth. After three decades of decline, public investment has begun to recover as a share of GDP in emerging markets (EMs) and low income developing countries (LIDCs), but remains at historic lows in advanced economies (AEs). The increase in public investment in EMs and LIDCs has led to some convergence between richer and poorer countries in the quality of and access to social infrastructure (e.g., schools and hospitals), and, to a lesser extent, economic infrastructure (e.g., roads and electricity).
However, the economic and social impact of public investment critically depends on its efficiency. Comparing the value of public capital (input) and measures of infrastructure coverage and quality (output) across countries reveals average inefficiencies in public investment processes of around 30 percent. The economic dividends from closing this efficiency gap are substantial: the most efficient public investors get twice the growth “bang” for their public investment “buck” than the least efficient.
April 27, 2015
Initial Steps in Implementing the Managing Director’s Action Plan for the 2014 Triennial Surveillance Review
Description:
In November 2014, the Managing Director set out a five-year Action Plan for Strengthening Surveillance in line with the goals of the 2014 Triennial Surveillance Review (TSR). In response to Executive Directors’ request for an early update, this report outlines the initial steps taken to operationalize the Action Plan. Many initiatives will take time to be fully embedded in the Fund’s surveillance products and its day-to-day dialogue with member countries.
This initial phase focused on putting in place the building blocks to support teams engaging in surveillance. This includes revising guidance to staff in line with the TSR priorities, investing in tools and staff training to boost capacity, and revamping work practices. Ongoing engagement among staff will be critical, both to raise awareness and to understand the issues teams are facing. Managers will play a vital role in implementing changed work practices, and the new leadership framework will support this. While not all initiatives are equally advanced given their different starting points or varying complexity, work is moving forward in all three of the broad pillars of the TSR: Deepening risk and spillover analysis. Staff is making a concerted effort to develop new approaches to macrofinancial surveillance, including through area department led pilot cases, enhanced technical support from functional departments, and a more collaborative approach to build skills and share knowledge. More tailored and expert policy advice. To better adapt our advice to the changing needs of member countries, staff is laying the groundwork for more detailed and tailored macro-structural analysis and ensuring that our fiscal advice continues to be ‘state of the art’. Efforts to leverage cross-country experience have gained momentum. Achieving greater impact. Staff is promoting more client focused communication, including exploring ways for more effective two-way dialogue with member countries, and promoting greater clarity in its multilateral messages. Staff is also developing principles to better understand and address perceptions of evenhandedness.
April 20, 2015
Fiscal Policy and Long-Term Growth
Description: This paper explores how fiscal policy can affect medium- to long-term growth. It identifies the main channels through which fiscal policy can influence growth and distills practical lessons for policymakers. The particular mix of policy measures, however, will depend on country-specific conditions, capacities, and preferences. The paper draws on the Fund’s extensive technical assistance on fiscal reforms as well as several analytical studies, including a novel approach for country studies, a statistical analysis of growth accelerations following fiscal reforms, and simulations of an endogenous growth model.
April 16, 2015
Progress Report on the Activities of the Independent Evaluation Office
Description: This progress report presents key conclusions and recommendations from an IEO evaluation of the IMF’s response to the global financial and economic crisis and an update of the IEO evaluation of the IMF’s approach to capital account liberalization, both issued since October 2014. It also describes ongoing IEO activities.
April 15, 2015
Managing Director’s Statement to the International Monetary and Financial Committee on Financing Sustainable Development—Key Policy Issues and the Role of the Fund
Description:
2015 is a pivotal year—a year when the international community will commit to a shared vision on goals for international development through 2030 and beyond. Achieving these Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) will require a partnership among advanced, emerging, and developing economies, and international institutions to ensure that the required policies are put in place and that sufficient private and public resources are mobilized.
The Fund, with its global membership and mandate at both the national and multilateral levels, is uniquely positioned to contribute to this compact and help implement it. As new deliverables, the IMF is considering:
1. Boosting the access to IMF resources provided to developing countries, better positioning them to handle balance of payments needs as they pursue growth;
2. Expanding diagnostic and capacity-building support for countries seeking to scale up investment to tackle infrastructure gaps;
3. Sharpening the focus of operational work on equity, inclusion, and gender, drawing on ongoing analysis and work of other institutions;
4. Increasing the focus on and resourcing of work on fragile/conflict-affected states;
5. Selective expansion of capacity-building efforts in the areas
Full text is also available in French and Spanish.
April 13, 2015
Managing Director's Global Policy Agenda to the International Monetary and Financial Committee: Confront Global Challenges Together
Description:
Against a backdrop of declining oil prices, sharp variations in exchange rates, and market volatility, global growth remains uneven. The prospect of a new mediocre lingers as medium-term forecasts have been marked down since the last GPA.
Promoting balanced, sustained growth requires an integrated policy package that bolsters today’s actual and tomorrow’s potential output, diminishes risks, and confronts emerging global challenges.
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The Executive Summary is also available in:
Arabic , Chinese, French, Japanese, Russian, and Spanish.
April 10, 2015
The Consolidated Medium-Term Income and Expenditure Framework
Description:
The medium-term income projections have been updated since the last estimate provided to the Executive Board in April 2014. The main changes to the outlook stem from a lower path for credit outstanding and expectations for a more gradual rise in interest rates.
The revised projections show lower levels of net operational income over the coming years. Lending income is lower compared with earlier estimates as a result of lower credit levels, including the advance repurchases by Ireland and Portugal. Non-lending income is also projected to be lower reflecting a further downward shift in SDR interest rates and, thus, returns on investments and interest-free resources. The updated expenditure path assumes the net administrative budget remains constant in real terms at the FY 2012 level. The long-run projections indicate a broad balance between income and expenditures, assuming that interest rates rise to 3.5 percent and with lending returning to pre-crisis levels.
The pace of reserve accumulation is expected to slow, reflecting the decline in Fund credit, and precautionary balances are now projected to remain slightly below the projected target of SDR 20 billion over the medium term compared with the earlier estimates.