Policy Papers
2016
February 22, 2016
Extension of the Period for Payment of Quota Increase Under the Fourteenth General Review of Quotas
Description: This paper proposes a 30-day extension of the initial period for payments to increase quotas under the Fourteenth General Review of Quotas (“Fourteenth Review”) through March 28, 2016. Under Board of Governors Resolution No. 66-2, each member shall pay to the Fund the increase in its quota within 30 days after the later of (a) the date on which it notifies the Fund of its consent, or (b) the date on which all of the general effectiveness conditions for the quota increases under the Fourteenth Review are met, provided that the Executive Board may extend the payment period as it may determine.
February 19, 2016
Separate Identification of the Chinese Renminbi in the COFER Survey
Description: Following the recent Executive Board decisions on the determination of the renminbi (RMB) as a freely usable currency, effective October 1, 2016, and its inclusion in the SDR basket on the same date, STA intends to separately identify the RMB in the survey on Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER) beginning with the survey for the fourth quarter of 2016. Consistent with staff’s commitment to consult the Executive Board before separately identifying additional currencies in the COFER survey, this paper sets out the key considerations for the envisaged inclusion of the RMB in the COFER survey.
February 11, 2016
Amendment to Steps to Address Excessive Delays in the Completion of Article IV Consultations or Mandatory Financial Stability Assessments and Application to the Case of Argentina
Description:
Management has received a request from the Argentine authorities to publish documents on economic developments in the country prepared by Fund staff for informal Board briefings in 2013–15. The Argentine authorities see publication of these papers as part of their commitment to transparency and accountability in their operations. The documents were prepared pursuant to the Fund’s policy on excessive delays in the completion of Article IV consultations and mandatory financial stability assessments, which requires that staff informally brief Executive Directors every 12 months on the economic developments and policies of relevant members. The objectives of the policy are to promote re-engagement with members with excessively delayed consultations, and to share information with the Board to help it fulfill its surveillance function.
< br />Under current policy, the briefing documents are not published. Instead, a short factual statement is issued in a press release, noting that the Board was given an informal staff briefing on the member’s economy based on available information. Under the policy, the Fund decided against publication of the briefing documents since it was considered that publication could expose the Fund to a significant reputational risk if the analysis set out in the documents missed key vulnerabilities due to large information gaps created by the lack of consultation with the member. Also, outside audiences may not appreciate that the documents represent the views of staff, not the views of the Board, and do not constitute an Article IV consultation. A further concern was that publication could reduce the pressure on members to proceed with an Article IV consultation. In light of the current policy, any publication of these documents would require a change in policy approved by the Executive Board. Read More
February 8, 2016
Methodological Note on EBA-Lite
Description:
The Fund has taken important steps to enhance its external sector assessments since the launch of the External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodology and the External Sector Report (ESR) in 2012, which provides a multilaterally consistent assessment of the largest economies’ external sector positions and policies. With scope for strengthening external sector assessments of non-EBA countries, the 2014 Triennial Surveillance Review (TSR) called for the application of EBA’s conceptual innovations to a broader set of countries. Following the 2014 TSR, the Managing Director’s Action Plan proposed developing EBA-lite to extend the EBA methodology to a broader group of countries where adequate data is available. In the fall of 2014, the launch of the EBA-lite methodology for current account assessments provided the first extension of EBA approach for non-EBA countries. In summer 2015, the real exchange rate index model and the external sustainability approach were added to the EBA-lite framework.
This note serves as a reference for the EBA-lite methodology. It provides: (i) motivations for developing EBA-lite and guidance for its use; (ii) technical explanations of all three EBA-lite approaches; and (iii) suggestions on how to articulate staff assessments of the external sector informed by model results.
January 27, 2016
Evenhandedness of Fund Surveillance - Principles and Mechanism for Addressing Concerns
Description: Evenhandedness of the Fund’s analysis and advice is critical to the effectiveness of its engagement with member countries. In this regard, both actual and perceived lack of evenhandedness can be detrimental to the Fund’s credibility and legitimacy. While perceptions of evenhandedness often reflect views about the full range of Fund activities, Fund surveillance is an important contributor to perceptions. Moreover, the consistency of the Fund’s analysis and advice will likely be scrutinized more closely in an interconnected world.
January 26, 2016
Review of the Adequacy of the Fund's Precautionary Balances
Description:
This paper reviews the adequacy of the Fund’s precautionary balances, using the framework approved by the Board in 2010. The review takes place on the standard two-year cycle. The paper discusses developments since the last review in 2014 and revisits several issues discussed at that time.
The framework provides an indicative range for the target for precautionary balances linked to credit outstanding, and allows for judgment in setting this target. A reserve coverage ratio of 20-30 percent draws on approaches in other IFIs, adapted to the circumstances of the Fund, and is a guide for determining the target. At the same time, Directors have emphasized the continued importance of judgment and Board discretion in light of a broad assessment of financial risks facing the Fund.
January 22, 2016
Fifteenth General Review of Quotas - Report of the Executive Board to the Board of Governors
Description: In completing the Fourteenth General Review of Quotas (hereafter the “Fourteenth Review”) and approving the proposed Amendment on the Reform of the Executive Board (hereafter the “Board Reform Amendment”), the Board of Governors requested the Executive Board to bring forward the timetable for completion of the Fifteenth General Review of Quotas (hereafter the “Fifteenth Review”) to January 2014.
January 20, 2016
Review of Access Limits and Surcharge Policies
Description:
Scope and strategy: This paper reviews access limits and surcharge policies in the Fund’s General Resources Account (GRA). It builds on the preliminary Executive Board discussion that took place in May 2014, against the backdrop of the 14th Review quotas expected to become effective early in 2016, which will on average double individual members’ quotas. At the meeting in 2014, most Directors considered that a moderate increase in normal access limits in SDR terms would broadly restore the normal Fund access to levels considered acceptable in 2009, and saw merit in adjusting the surcharge threshold to allow for a moderate increase in the SDR value of credit not subject to the charge.
2015
December 17, 2015
Extension of the Period for Consent to Increase Quotas Under the Fourteenth General Review of Quotas, the 2008 Reform of Quota and Voice, and the Eleventh General Review of Quotas
Description:
This paper proposes a further six-month extension of the period for consent to increase quotas under the Fourteenth General Review of Quotas. The current deadline is due to expire on December 31, 2015, however, Board of Governors Resolution No. 66-2 provides that the Executive Board may extend the period for consent as it may determine. An extension under Resolution No. 66-2 will also extend the periods of consent for quota increases under the 2008 Reform of Quota and Voice (Resolution No. 63-2) and the Eleventh General Review of Quotas (Resolution No. 53-2).
As of December 14, 2015, 21 members have not yet consented to their proposed quota increases under Resolution No. 66-2 (see Appendix I). Once the conditions for effectiveness of the individual quota increases are met, members may then pay for their quota increases to make them effective.
December 10, 2015
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)—Oil Prices, Financial Stability, and the Use of Countercyclical Macroprudential Policies in the GCC
Description:
Economic and financial developments in the GCC economies are interwoven with oil price movements. GCC economies are highly dependent on oil and gas exports. Oil price upturns lead to higher oil revenues, stronger fiscal and external positions, and higher government spending. This boosts corporate profitability and equity prices and strengthens bank balance sheets, but can also lead to the buildup of systemic vulnerabilities in the financial sector. Banks in the GCC are well-capitalized, liquid, and profitable at present, and well-positioned to manage structural systemic risks. However, oil-macro-financial linkages mean that asset quality and liquidity in the financial system may deteriorate in a low oil price environment and financial sector stress may emerge.
The scope for amplification of oil price shocks through the financial sector suggests a role for a countercyclical approach to macroprudential policies. Countercyclical macroprudential policy can prove useful to reduce the buildup of systemic risks in the financial sector during upswings, and to cushion against disruption to financial services during periods of financial sector stress.
The GCC countries have considerable experience with implementing a wide range of macroprudential policies, but these policies have not generally been adjusted through the cycle. GCC central banks implemented several macroprudential measures before the global financial crisis and have continued to enhance their macroprudential frameworks and toolkits to limit systemic financial sector risks. Although there is some evidence of macroprudential tools being adjusted in a countercyclical way, most of the tools have not been adjusted over the financial cycle.
Further enhancements to the GCC macroprudential framework are needed to support the countercyclical use of these policies. A comprehensive and established framework, supported by strong institutional capacity, is essential for countercyclical macroprudential policies. This framework should provide clear assignment of responsibilities and guidance on how policies will be implemented to maintain financial stability and manage systemic risks over the financial cycle. Addressing data gaps and the further development of reliable early warning indicators in signaling potential systemic stress are needed to help guide the countercyclical use of a broad set of macroprudential policies.
Expanding the countercyclical policy toolkit and its coverage can help address emerging financial sector risks. The implementation of countercyclical capital buffers and dynamic loan loss provisions could boost resilience in line with systemic risks faced in GCC economies. At the same time, using existing macroprudential policies countercyclically would prove useful to address emerging financial sector risks in a more targeted way. Expanding the coverage of macroprudential tools to nonbanks can help boost effectiveness by reducing leakages.