Country Reports
2024
July 30, 2024
Euro Area Policies: 2024 Annual Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Member Countries
Description: The euro area economy has been resilient in the face of multiple, large shocks, including the pandemic, Russia’s gas shut-off, and fallout from the war in Ukraine. Nonetheless, the adverse shocks have had persistent effects which shape economic prospects. Energy-intensive industries, in particular, have struggled to adjust to higher input costs and continue to underperform. Despite subdued overall activity, employment growth remains robust. Inflation has declined significantly from its late-2022 peak in response to the ECB’s policy tightening and the decline in commodity prices.
July 30, 2024
Cabo Verde: Fourth Review of the Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility and First Review of the Arrangement Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility and Request of Rephasing of Availability Dates-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: This paper discusses Cabo Verde’s Fourth Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Request for Modifications of Performance Criteria, and First Review of the Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) and Request of Rephasing of Availability Dates. Macroeconomic performance in 2023 was strong, with real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 5.1 percent, a strong primary fiscal surplus, low inflation, and a prudent level of reserves to protect the peg. The public debt-to-GDP ratio continues on a downward path, and the financial sector remains resilient. The authorities are improving the monetary and financial policy frameworks. Reforms to foster productivity and diversification underpin the authorities’ growth and climate resilience strategy. The RSF arrangement supports strong reforms in the energy-water nexus with the aim of facilitating private sector development, building the appropriate infrastructure, reducing costs, and managing the energy transition. The near-term outlook is favorable despite some downside risks. Reforms focus on climate-resilience, preserving debt sustainability, advancing strong reforms in the energy-water nexus and managing the energy transition, while targeting social spending to protect the most vulnerable from the costs of the transition. State-owned enterprises reforms are key to reducing fiscal risks, and improving inter-island connectivity is critical for competitiveness.
July 29, 2024
Republic of Congo: 2024 Article IV, Fourth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility, Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria, Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director
Description: The fourth review of a three-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement (SDR 324 million, 200 percent of quota) was concluded on December 20, 2023. Economic growth momentum softened in 2023 as oil production surprised on the downside, which, together with the 2023-2024 floods, challenges in the provisioning of electricity, and weaker public investment, weighed on non-hydrocarbon growth as well. Growth is expected to recover to close to 4 percent over the medium term. Under-execution of public spending across the board, but particularly on capital expenditures and social transfers, brought the 2023 non-hydrocarbon primary deficit to 8.4 percent of non-hydrocarbon GDP, which is 3.2 percentage points lower than projected in the fourth review (CR 24/2). However, the current account weakened, a trend that is projected to continue over the medium term, as oil production stagnates while oil prices are slightly trending down. Despite external arrears remaining below the de-minimis threshold, public debt is assessed as sustainable but “in distress” due to frequent accumulation of new external arrears and lingering uncertainty about the size of domestic arrears.
July 29, 2024
Republic of Croatia: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: Croatia is the newest euro area (EA) member. Following a very strong recovery in 2021–22, growth moderated to 3.1 percent in 2023, still among the highest in the EA. Inflation has decelerated considerably since early 2023 but remains above the EA average, while the labor market remains tight. Growth is expected to stay robust in 2024–25, led by strengthening household real incomes and investment supported by EU funds. Inflation is expected to gradually approach 2 percent in late 2025. Risks to the outlook are broadly balanced. Subdued productivity and labor shortages are the main obstacles to potential growth.
July 29, 2024
The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia: Request of an Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia
Description: After decades of rapid growth and improvements in living standards, a series of shocks led to severe economic pressures, and the public investment-led growth model has reached its limits. Domestic conflict, the pandemic, droughts, and spillovers from Russia’s war in Ukraine, as well as significant exchange rate overvaluation and insufficient macroeconomic policy adjustment, compounded building vulnerabilities resulting in high inflation, falling exports, foreign exchange shortages, erosion of international reserves, and unsustainable external debt. Reflecting their ambition to transform the economic model towards private sector-led development, and recognizing the urgent need for reform, the authorities developed the Home-Grown Economic Reform Agenda. This ambitious plan aims at tackling the drivers of economic imbalances including through moving to a market-determined exchange rate, modernizing the monetary policy framework, tackling fiscal revenues, and reforming state-owned enterprises.
July 29, 2024
Burkina Faso: 2024 Article IV Consultation and First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Burkina Faso
Description: Burkina Faso continues to face significant challenges related to security and food insecurity and remains committed to addressing them. The authorities have formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) with Mali and Niger; while they decided to leave ECOWAS in January, they have since reaffirmed their commitment to WAEMU membership. The authorities have in May extended the political transition with elections now planned to take place in five years, and the risk of further political instability remains high. Fund relations have remained strong and collaborative.
July 24, 2024
Republic of Lithuania: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: Lithuania has experienced fast income convergence over the past two decades and the economy is projected to return to growth this year after a shallow recession. However, higher inflation differentials following the shock triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have had an impact on competitiveness, even though Lithuania entered this crisis with an undervalued real effective exchange rate. At the same time, global fragmentation, long-term spending pressures, eroded corporate profitability, and pre-existing structural challenges in education, healthcare and the labor market continue weighing on productivity and growth. Thus, Lithuania needs prudent policies and decisive structural reforms to support sustained productivity growth and ensure higher living standards and continued convergence.