Country Reports
2024
July 8, 2024
Republic of Serbia: Third Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Serbia
Description: Serbia continues to recover well from the energy crisis. The authorities remain committed to policies that will help maintain strong external and fiscal buffers and that will support disinflation. With the planned large increases in public investment, it will be important to further strengthen public investment management and transparency. Additional energy pricing and governance reforms will bolster SOE finances. The authorities will continue to treat the SBA as precautionary.
July 8, 2024
United Kingdom: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for United Kingdom
Description: The UK economy is approaching a soft landing, following a mild technical recession in 2023. A modest recovery is projected, with 0.7 percent growth in 2024, strengthening to 1.5 percent in 2025. Inflation has fallen rapidly from double digit levels last year in the context of easing energy prices and tight policies. Assuming wage and services inflation continue to moderate from their current elevated levels, inflation should return durably to target in the first half of 2025. The medium-term outlook is affected by significant public spending pressures, notably in healthcare, and the downshift in labor productivity growth post-GFC, exacerbated by recent adverse shocks (Brexit, COVID, energy price surge). Risks to the outlook are balanced. A general election is scheduled on July 4.
July 1, 2024
Paraguay: 2024 Article IV Consultation, Third Review Under the Policy Coordination Instrument, Modification of Targets, and First Review Under the Arrangement Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: This paper presents Paraguay’s 2024 Article IV Consultation, Third Review under the Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI), Modification of Targets, and First Review under the Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). The PCI underpins Paraguay's economic strategy and structural objectives of maintaining macroeconomic stability and promoting social welfare and inclusion. The PCI is yielding positive results, though two targets were missed due to the identification of additional unrecorded healthcare-related expenditure. Three reform targets have been met. The new government is committed to continuing reforms guided by the PCI and RSF arrangements. It is crucial for Paraguay to rebuild fiscal buffers, ensure the sustainability of the public servants’ pension fund and enhance supervision of public enterprises to limit contingent risks. Taking decisive action against corruption to minimize reputational risks, reducing informality, and increasing international market integration will make Paraguay a significantly more attractive investment destination, including for green projects. Adaptation and mitigation measures should reduce the country’s vulnerability to climate change and preserve its substantial natural assets and clean energy matrix.
July 1, 2024
Jordan: First Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: Jordan’s economy continues to show resilience despite a challenging external environment. The economy continues to grow, albeit at a somewhat slower pace, inflation is low, and reserve buffers are strong. Growth is projected to pick up pace in 2025, contingent upon the Israel-Gaza conflict ending and its impact fading. Uncertainty is high, however, and structural challenges remain, with continued high unemployment.
June 28, 2024
Ukraine: Fourth Review of the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, Request for Modifications of a Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraine
Description: Russia’s war in Ukraine continues to have a devastating economic and social impact. Skillful policymaking supported by external financing has helped maintain macroeconomic and financial stability despite challenging circumstances, and the authorities continue to advance important structural reforms. Better-than-expected growth outturns in 2023 and in 2024Q1 demonstrate the resilience of the economy. Approval by the United States of the US$61 billion financial and military support package, and by the European Council of the €50 billion Ukraine Facility and its underlying Ukraine Plan are positive developments following a challenging period of liquidity strains in early 2024. However, headwinds include the rising risks of a prolonged war and the economic impact of the attacks on energy infrastructure and mobilization.
June 28, 2024
Barbados: Third Reviews Under the Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Arrangement Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility, and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: The authorities’ implementation of the home-grown Economic Recovery and Transformation (BERT 2022) plan and their ambitious climate policy agenda remain strong, supported by the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). In 2023, the economy completed its recovery from the pandemic, growing by an estimated 4.4 percent, driven by a rebound in tourism and related sectors. Inflation moderated gradually with the easing of global commodity prices but remained somewhat elevated due to adverse weather conditions that affected some domestic crops, and stronger demand for tourism-related services. The external position also strengthened, with the current account deficit narrowing to 9 percent of GDP and ample international reserves (US$1.5 billion at end-2023) continuing to support the exchange rate peg. The authorities remain committed to maintaining fiscal consolidation and debt sustainability, while advancing structural reforms to achieve more inclusive and sustainable growth and increase resilience to climate change.
June 28, 2024
Seychelles: 2024 Article IV Consultation, Second Reviews Under the Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and the Arrangement Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility, Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; and Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Seychelles
Description: They Seychellois economy continues to recover from the effects of the pandemic but at a slowing pace. While tourist arrivals were about 91 percent of prepandemic highs and activity in the IT, construction, and fishing sectors was robust, real GDP growth slowed to about 3.2 percent in 2023. This is due partly to a complex disaster (flooding and an industrial explosion) in December and associated negative impacts on manufacturing. Inflation has been negative since May but appears to have troughed in December. The fiscal stance in 2023 was tighter than projected and, as a result, the ratio of public debt to GDP is moving more quickly back to pre-pandemic lows. The external position improved slightly relative to the previous year.
June 28, 2024
Central African Republic: Second Review Under the Extended Credit Facility, Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Continuous Performance Criterion, Augmentation of Access, and Financing Assurance Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Central African Republic
Description: Despite a challenging environment, the authorities have broadly shown strong commitment to the reforms proposed in the program. Challenges to fuel and electricity supply have undermined economic growth, revenue mobilization, and government liquidity. Further, volatile spending weakened budget credibility. Public debt increased rapidly last year driven by regional issuances, and the authorities have ambitious borrowing plans for 2024. Thus, boosting revenue collection—particularly from fuel imports—and strengthening spending management will be key to preserving macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability.