Country Reports
2024
November 8, 2024
Lao People's Democratic Republic: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Lao People's Democratic Republic
Description: Growth gathered momentum in 2023 on the back of recovering external demand, but exchange rate depreciation continues and inflation remains persistently high. Labor and FX shortages are intensifying. Public debt is assessed to be unsustainable, despite a tight fiscal stance. FX reserves remain low.
November 4, 2024
The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia: First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Request for Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia
Description: The Board approved Ethiopia’s request for a four-year arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF arrangement) in July 2024 to support the authorities’ program aimed at addressing macroeconomic imbalances, restoring external debt sustainability, and laying the foundation for high, private sector-led growth. The transition to a market-determined exchange rate has been progressing well with a significant narrowing of the spread between the parallel and official market rate and no signs of significant inflationary pressures, albeit the supply of foreign exchange (FX) to the market has picked up more slowly than anticipated with some unmet demand persisting. With economic agents still adjusting to the new FX regime, persistent uncertainty, and seasonal lows in export earnings, it is too early to draw definitive conclusions on the full effects of the exchange rate reform.
November 1, 2024
Kenya: Seventh and Eighth Reviews Under the Extended Fund Facility and Extended Credit Facility Arrangements, Requests for Reduction of Access, Augmentation and Rephasing of Access Under the Arrangements, Modifications of Performance Criteria, Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Review Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Kenya
Description: Kenya is confronted with the need to chart a course that attends directly to the recent public outcry. The widespread protests that started in June and resulted in tragic loss of lives and injuries were triggered by the authorities’ efforts to correct a large tax revenue shortfall in FY2023/24 through revenue raising proposals in the 2024 Finance Bill, some of which were unpopular or seen as regressive. The protests forced the President to withdraw the Bill, introduce significant spending cuts through a Supplementary Budget in July, and reconstitute the Cabinet in August. Persistent difficulties in mobilizing revenue coupled with spending rigidities have led to a further accumulation of pending bills, and necessitated deep cuts in development spending, with potential for knock-on effects on growth and debt sustainability. Against this backdrop, preceded by large exogenous shocks (COVID-19, global developments impacting import price and affordable access to market finance, and severe multi-season droughts), the authorities face a complex and difficult balancing act: meeting critical spending needs for priority areas (social programs, health, and education), servicing large upcoming debt obligations, and boosting domestic revenues. Earlier in the year, Kenya addressed the exceptional balance of payments (BoP) needs associated with repayment of the June 2024 US$2 billion Eurobond, boosting market confidence that helped strengthen the shilling and build reserves. Meanwhile, fiscal pressures continue, including from uncertainty surrounding the constitutionality of the 2023 Finance Act on which the Supreme Court’s decision is awaited.
November 1, 2024
Mexico: 2024 Article IV Consultation and Review Under the Flexible Credit Line Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Mexico
Description: Economic activity is decelerating, and inflation pressures are receding. The fiscal deficit is expected to register a substantial increase in 2024. Mexico maintains sizable buffers, a strong external position, and effective financial oversight. A range of supply-side reforms will be needed to catalyze lasting higher growth.
October 29, 2024
Suriname: Seventh Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria, Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Suriname
Description: The authorities’ commitment to a range of policy reforms is showing results in terms of macroeconomic stability and investor perceptions. The economy is growing, inflation is declining, donor support is increasing, and international bond spreads are at historic lows.
October 18, 2024
Ukraine: Fifth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for Waivers of Applicability of Performance Criteria, Modification of Performance Criterion, Rephasing of Access, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraine
Description: Russia’s war in Ukraine continues to bring a rising economic, social, and humanitarian toll. The attacks on the energy infrastructure have inflicted severe economic damage and losses, and the outlook remains highly uncertain. The war is expected to continue through the coming year, generating expenditure pressures and opening additional financing needs. In addition to the longer war, several other recent developments carry important implications for the IMF-supported program: first, a package of tax measures awaits adoption by Parliament, after which the authorities must continue to build on this effort with further broad-based measures to support fiscal sustainability; second, the successful Eurobond exchange in August is a major achievement toward restoring debt sustainability and securing debt relief amid pressing expenditure needs; and finally, the G7’s assurance to provide US$50 billion of stable, multi-year financing to Ukraine through Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration Loans for Ukraine (ERA) initiative is critical for meeting the now larger financing needs.
October 17, 2024
Republic of Kazakhstan: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note on Astana International Financial Center and the Kazakhstan Financial System
Description: Launched in 2018, the Astana International Financial Center (AIFC) aims to establish a leading international financial center for financial services in Astana, as well as to attract foreign investment and support the growth and development of Kazakhstan and the region. Drawing from a model adopted in the Gulf region, the AIFC is established as a distinct and separate jurisdiction operating under its own legal structure, governance arrangements and regulatory framework (the Astana Financial Services Authority (AFSA) is the designated regulatory authority). Nonetheless, there are multiple interconnections between the AIFC and the domestic financial system that may impact financial stability in Kazakhstan. Policy challenges arise when financial services may be provided under distinct legal and regulatory arrangements from both a ‘domestic’ jurisdiction and a jurisdictionally-separated international financial center. Financial activity in the Center remains small, limiting the immediate risks to Kazakhstan financial stability, but given the strategy of the Center, service provision is expected to increase and interlinkages with the Kazakhstan financial system to grow, raising the systemic importance of the AIFC, as well as the associated risks. While some positive steps have been taken to address these risks, additional enhancements are advisable, to further reinforce regulatory arrangements and lower the risks of spillover, arbitrage, and gaps arising from the co-existence of separate regulatory frameworks for the domestic financial system and the AIFC. Development of a Financial Stability Protocol would codify objectives, responsibilities and working procedures and help ensure effective cooperation and collaboration between the Kazakhstan domestic regulatory agency (ARDFM), the central bank (NBK), and AFSA, in support of the common goal of financial stability in Kazakhstan.
October 11, 2024
Liberia: Request for a 40-Month Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Supplement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Liberia
Description: Liberia’s real per-capita income is still about a third of the level prior internal conflicts. Notwithstanding the strong economic rebound recorded after the pandemic, a large infrastructure gap has remained, and the expected domestic revenue mobilization has not materialized. These two factors have posed significant economic and fiscal challenges in the short and medium term. The implementation of the 2019-23 Fund-supported program was mixed, with a strong start followed by a disappointing performance ahead of the recent presidential elections. To address current and future challenges, fiscal discipline needs to be restored, governance vulnerabilities addressed, and the Central Bank of Liberia (CBL) governance, independence, and supervisory role strengthened. Therefore, scope for deviation from the established policy and reform agenda is very limited given the implications to debt sustainability and capacity to repay the Fund.
October 11, 2024
Republic of Türkiye: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Türkiye
Description: A significant tightening of macroeconomic policy since mid-2023 has substantially reduced crisis risks. Tighter financial conditions are weighing on domestic demand and inflation has fallen. Tax and expenditure measures partly dampened an expansionary fiscal impulse and the commitment to stronger incomes policies has strengthened credibility. Market sentiment has improved, with investors shifting into lira while lower commodity prices, buoyant exports, and reduced gold imports have strengthened the current account and boosted international reserves. Türkiye’s sovereign ratings have been upgraded and country risk premia have halved. While now subsiding, still-high inflation expectations and sequential inflation suggest an insufficiently tight policy stance to reach the midpoint of the authorities’ inflation forecast range.