Working Papers

November 4, 2022

Chasing the Sun and Catching the Wind: Energy Transition and Electricity Prices in Europe

Description: European power markets are in the midst of unprecedented changes, with a record-breaking surge in energy prices.This paper investigates the impact of green power resources on the level and volatility of wholesale electricity prices at a granular level, using monthly observations for a panel of 24 European countries over the period 2014–2021 and alternative estimation methods including a panel quantile regression approach. We find that renewable energy is associated with a significant reduction in wholesale electricity prices in Europe, with an average impact of 0.6 percent for each 1 percentage points increase in renewable share. We also find evidence for a nonlinear effect—that is, higher the share of renewables, the greater its effect on electricity prices. On the other hand, while quantile estimation results are mixed with regards to the impact of renewables on the volatility of electricity prices, we obtain evidence that renewable energy has a negative effect on volatility at the highest quantiles. Overall, our analysis indicates that policy reforms can help accelerate the green transition while minimizing the volatility in electricity prices.

November 4, 2022

How Do Transaction Costs Influence Remittances

Description: Using a new quarterly panel database on remittances (71 countries over the period 2011Q1- 2020Q4), this paper investigates the elasticity of remittances to transaction costs in a high frequency and dynamic setting. It adds to the literature by systematically exploring the heterogeneity in the cost-elasticity of remittances along several country characteristics. The findings suggest that cost reductions have a short-term positive impact on remittances, that dissipates beyond one quarter. According to our estimates, reducing transaction costs to the Sustainable Development Goal target of 3 percent could generate an additional US$32bn in remittances, higher that the direct cost savings from lower transaction costs, thus suggesting an absolute elasticity greater than one. Among remittance cost-mitigation factors, higher competition in the remittance market, a deeper financial sector, and adequate correspondent banking relationships are associated with a lower elasticity of remittance to transaction costs. Similarly, remittance cost-adaptation factors such as enhanced transparency in remittance costs, improved financial literary and higher ICT development coincide with remittances being less sensitive to transaction costs. Supplementing the panel analysis, the use of micro data from the USA-Mexico corridor confirm that migrants facing higher transaction costs tend to remit less, and that this effect is less pronounced for skilled migrants and those that have access to a bank account.

November 4, 2022

A Multi-Currency Exchange and Contracting Platform

Description: Cross-border payments can be slow, expensive, and risky. They are intermediated by counterparties in different jurisdictions which rely on costly trusted relationships to offset the lack of a common settlement asset as well as common rules and governance. In this paper, we present a vision for a multilateral platform that could improve cross-border payments, as well as related foreign exchange transactions, risk sharing, and more generally, financial contracting. The approach is to leverage technological innovations for public policy objectives. A common ledger, smart contracts, and encryption offer significant gains to market efficiency, completeness, and access, as well as to transparency, transaction and compliance costs, and safety. This paper is a first step aiming to stimulate further work in this space.

November 4, 2022

Electoral Cycles in Tax Reforms

Description: We examine electoral cycles in tax reforms using monthly data over the period of 1990-2018 for 22 advanced economies and emerging markets. We show that governments tend to avoid announcing tax reforms during the months running up to elections. In addition, they become more likely to announce those reforms in the first few months following elections, indicating that “political capital” plays a role in the timing of reforms. These patterns are broad-based regarding the changes in tax base and rate, and for various types of taxes. We also find that the pre-election decrease in the likelihood of tax reform announcements is stronger in emerging markets, and weaker in the countries with relatively better institutional quality. Finally, our results indicate that neither fiscal rules nor IMF programs appear to have differential effects on electoral cycles in tax reforms.

October 28, 2022

A Quarterly Projection Model for the WAEMU

Description: This study describes a semi-structural New-Keynesian Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) for the WAEMU zone. In the context of a fixed exchange rate regime and relatively tight capital controls, the central bank for the WAEMU monetary union (Banque Centrale des États de l’Afrique de l’Ouest, BCEAO) can exert some influence on the domestic money markets and interest rates. We adjusted the canonical version of a New Keynesian semi-structural Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) to capture that feature and other aspects specific to the BCEAO monetary policy framework, including an implicit foreign exchange reserve target. The model, which is parametrized though and mix of calibration and Bayesian estimation techniques, displays dynamic properties for the main variables in response to various shocks that are in line with theoretical priors and empirical evidence. Medium-term forecasts considering the Covid-19 pandemic produce sensible results when compared with forecast produced by a standard VAR. Moments computed from artificial data generated with the model match well those observed in the data. Overall, the model displays desirable analytical properties and sensible data-matching and forecasting capabilities and could, therefore, be used by the BCEAO to identify relevant shocks, map their propagation into the WAEMU regional economy, and better support its monetary policy decisions.

October 28, 2022

Scarring and Corporate Debt

Description: This paper estimates the scarring effect of recessions on corporates’ investment and how it is amplified by the level of corporate debt. Our results suggest that the effect of firms’ debt in shaping the response of investment to recessions is statistically significant and economically sizeable, with high debt firms seeing a larger decline in investment than low debt firms. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that firms’ debt accounts for at least 28 percent of the average medium-term decline of investment following a recession. This effect is especially larger for firms that are credit constrained—small and less profitable firms, as well as firms with high share of short-term debt—and that therefore may find it more difficult to rollover or raise new funds to invest in new projects. The results are robust to several checks, including to various sub-samples, alternative measures of recessions and explanatory variables, and a large set of controls.

October 28, 2022

Digitalization and Resilience

Description: This paper investigates the role of digitialization in improving economic resilience. Using balance sheet data from 24,000 firms in 75 countries, and a difference-in-differences approach, we find that firms in industries that are more digitalized experience lower revenue losses following recessions. Early data since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic suggest an even larger effect during the resulting recessions. These results are robust across a wide range of digitalization measures—such as ICT input and employment shares, robot usage, online sales, intangible assets and digital skills listed on online profiles—and several alternative specifications.

October 28, 2022

Monetary Policy Communication and Financial Markets in India

Description: Forward-looking monetary policy communication has become a key element of flexible inflation-targeting regimes across advanced and emerging market economies. The Reserve Bank of India’s implementation of a flexible inflation targeting framework since 2016 has been supported by a broad set of communication tools, more recently aided by policy innovations such as forward guidance on policy rates and, asset purchases, increasing the predictability of monetary policy. A review of the recent innovations of monetary policy communications during the initial waves of the pandemic suggests forward guidance likely played a key role in moderating uncertainty and supporting some asset prices. We also find that the relationship between monetary policy surprises and yields for government and corporate securities across all maturities are positive and statistically significant. The results support an important role for monetary policy communication in guiding market expectations about the monetary policy stance, including the likely path of policy interest rates.

October 28, 2022

Understanding U.S. Inflation During the COVID Era

Description: This paper analyzes the dramatic rise in U.S. inflation since 2020, which we decompose into a rise in core inflation as measured by the weighted median inflation rate and deviations of headline inflation from core. We explain the rise in core with two factors, the tightening of the labor market as captured by the ratio of job vacancies to unemployment, and the pass-through into core from past shocks to headline inflation. The headline shocks themselves are explained largely by increases in energy prices and by supply chain problems as captured by backlogs of orders for goods and services. Looking forward, we simulate the future path of inflation for alternative paths of the unemployment rate, focusing on the projections of Federal Reserve policymakers in which unemployment rises only modestly to 4.4 percent. We find that this unemployment path returns inflation to near the Fed’s target only under optimistic assumptions about both inflation expectations and the Beveridge curve relating the unemployment and vacancy rates. Under less benign assumptions about these factors, the inflation rate remains well above target unless unemployment rises by more than the Fed projects.

Notes: Online Appendix

October 28, 2022

Digital Money and Central Banks Balance Sheet

Description: Digital money is a logical step in a process of continuous technological advancement in payment systems. In response, central banks are reviewing their conduct of monetary operations in light of the new shape of financial markets and systems. The impact of digital money will depend on the type of money substitution by digital money. The paper straddles several cases where substitution of CiC (currency in circulation), and bank deposits may take place via digital money such as CBDC or other e-money, and how it would impact the central bank balance sheet. Remuneration of CBDC, if aligned to a new objective, could potentially amplify the effect on the interest rate channel of monetary policy.