Working Papers
2023
January 18, 2023
Central Banks as Dollar Lenders of Last Resort: Implications for Regulation and Reserve Holdings
Description: This paper explores how non-U.S. central banks behave when firms in their economies engage in currency mismatch, borrowing more heavily in dollars than justified by their operating exposures. We begin by documenting that, in a panel of 53 countries, central bank holdings of dollar reserves are significantly correlated with the dollar-denominated bank borrowing of their non-financial corporate sectors, controlling for a number of known covariates of reserve accumulation. We then build a model in which the central bank can deal with private-sector mismatch, and the associated risk of a domestic financial crisis, in two ways: (i) by imposing ex ante financial regulations such as bank capital requirements; or (ii) by building a stockpile of dollar reserves that allow it to serve as an ex post dollar lender of last resort. The model highlights a novel externality: individual central banks may tend to over-accumulate dollar reserves, relative to what a global planner would choose. This is because individual central banks do not internalize that their hoarding of reserves exacerbates a global scarcity of dollar-denominated safe assets, which lowers dollar interest rates and encourages firms to increase the currency mismatch of their liabilities. Relative to the decentralized outcome, a global planner may prefer stricter financial regulation (e.g., higher bank capital requirements) and reduced holdings of dollar reserves.
January 13, 2023
Macro Effects of Formal Adoption of Inflation Targeting
Description: We examine the impact of formal adoption of inflation targeting (IT) on inflation, growth and anchoring of inflation expectations in advanced economies and emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs). Our paper reports several findings relevant to assessing the success of IT regimes. We find that while the early adopters of IT (pre-2000) all saw declines in inflation rates following adoption, IT adopters since then have enjoyed such success in only about half the cases. Since there is not much difference, on average, between IT and non-IT countries in mean inflation, inflation volatility and the extent of inflation anchoring, it is not easy to sort out what role IT has played in ensuring good outcomes; in particular, we cannot rule out the possibility that the success of IT may be due to ‘regression to the mean’. Our country-level analysis—using the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) to compare outcomes in IT countries to a synthetic cohort—shows that IT adoption delivers significant inflation gains in about a third of the cases. At the same time, we also find limited support for the concern that adoption of IT systematically leads to poorer growth outcomes. At a time when central banks are struggling to keep inflation in check, our results suggest that the belief that IT adoption will be sufficient to achieve this goal cannot be taken for granted.
January 13, 2023
Coming Clean on Your Taxes
Description: This paper develops a simple model to explore whether a higher detection probability for offshore tax evaders—e.g. because of improved exchange of information between countries and/or due to digitalization of tax administrations—renders it optimal for governments to introduce a voluntary disclosure program (VDP) and, if so, under what terms. We find that if the VDP is unanticipated, it is likely to be optimal for a revenue-maximizing government to introduce a VDP with relatively generous terms, i.e. a low or even negative penalty. When anticipated, however, the VDP is neither incentive compatible nor optimal, as it induces otherwise compliant taxpayers to evade tax. A VDP can then only be beneficial if tax evasion induces an external social cost beyond the direct revenue foregone, e.g., due to adverse effects on overall tax morale. In contrast to the common view that VDPs should come along with additional enforcement effort, we find that governments should relax enforcement if the VDP itself provides more powerful incentives to come clean.
January 13, 2023
Trade Policy Implications of a Changing World: Tariffs and Import Market Power
Description: Economic theory suggests that countries’ tariff commitments in trade agreements reflect their import market power at the time of negotiations. However, as countries grow, their market power in different sectors can change in unforeseen ways and their commitments may no longer reflect changed economic conditions. Using a newly built dataset of pre-Uruguay Round applied tariffs and relying on the theoretical framework of the terms-of-trade motive for trade agreements, we estimate hypothetical tariff commitments under current levels of market power and compare them with actual tariff commitments. We find that lower tariff commitments required to reflect current economic conditions would amount to a reduction in annual tariff costs of up to $26.4 billion – equivalent to nearly 10% of global tariff costs. Our results reveal substantial heterogeneity between countries and sectors. The sectors with the largest potential tariff cost reductions are vehicles (HS 87) and machinery and appliances (HS 84-85). Product-level tariff reductions would range from 0 to 18.5 percentage points and are on average largest for China. In the past, the GATT/WTO system has updated tariff commitments through periodic rounds of negotiations, and our findings support the revival of the WTO's negotiation function in this area.
January 13, 2023
Supporting Sustainable Financing and Access to Finance in Armenia
Description: In Armenia, both external and domestic financing face challenges. Armenia’s share of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) in private external financing has declined significantly over the past decade. Access to domestic finance in Armenia is also moderate and masks important disparities. Against this background, this paper analyses the determinants of inward FDI and examines the impediments to increasing access to domestic finance. The paper confirms empirically that governance-related structural factors have a significant impact on inward FDI. Similar structural factors, informality and poor accounting practices are reported among major challenges for increasing access to finance for firms in Armenia. This paper finds that to improve financing in Armenia include: implementing structural reforms to improve the business environment, maintaining prudent macroeconomic policies, strengthening financial reporting, and improving financial inclusion through reduced informality in the economy.
January 13, 2023
How Effective were Job-Retention Schemes during the COVID-19 Pandemic? A Microsimulation Approach for European Countries
Description: The COVID-19 pandemic had posed a dramatic impact on labor markets across Europe. Forceful fiscal responses have prevented an otherwise sharper contraction. Many countries introduced or expanded job-retention schemes to preserve jobs and support households. This paper uses a microsimulation approach (EUROMOD) and household data to assess the effectiveness of those schemes in stabilizing household income during the pandemic across European countries. Empirical evidence shows that job-retention schemes were effective in stabilizing income and, along with other measures, absorbed nearly 80 percent of market income shocks—almost doubling the extent of the automatic stabilization of the pre-pandemic tax and benefit systems. The large effects are related to the widespread use and scaling up of those schemes and a deep but short-lived disruption to labor markets during the pandemic. Along with other fiscal support measures, job-retention schemes helped mitigate the rise in the unemployment rate, by about 3 percentage points, and income inequality during the pandemic. Our results show that job-retention schemes were largely targeted, in which households more vulnerable to income losses, such as lower-income families, youth, and low-skilled workers, are able to stabilize their income.
January 6, 2023
Why Some Don’t Belong—The Distributional Effects of Natural Disasters
Description: When and how do natural disasters worsen within-country income inequality? We highlight the channels through which natural disasters may have distributional effects and empirically analyze when and which type of disasters affect inequality in advanced economies (AEs) and in emerging and developing economies (EMDEs). We find that in AEs inequality increases after severe disasters. We also find that inequality increases if severe disasters are associated with growth slowdowns or there are multiple disasters in a year in AEs and in EMDEs. Descriptive evidence for the US also suggests that adverse labor market effects of disasters are likely to fall on vulnerable groups.
January 6, 2023
The Pricing-Out Phenomenon in the U.S. Housing Market
Description: The COVID-19 pandemic further extended the multi-year housing boom in advanced economies and emerging markets alike against massive monetary easing during the pandemic. In this paper, we analyze the pricing-out phenomenon in the U.S. residential housing market due to higher house prices associated with monetary easing. We first set up a stylized general equilibrium model and show that although monetary easing decreases the mortgage payment burden, it would raise house prices, lower housing affordability for first-time homebuyers, and increase housing wealth inequality between first-time and repeat homebuyers. We then use the U.S. household-level data to quantify the effect of the house price change on housing affordability relative to that of the interest rate change. We find evidence of the pricing-out effect for all homebuyers; moreover, we find that the pricing-out effect is stronger for first-time homebuyers than for repeat homebuyers. The paper highlights the importance of accounting for general equilibrium effects and distributional implications of monetary policy while assessing housing affordability. It also calls for complementing monetary easing with well-targeted policy measures that can boost housing affordability, particularly for first-time and lower-income households. Such measures are also needed during aggressive monetary tightening, given that the fall in house prices may be insufficient or too slow to fully offset the immediate adverse impact of higher rates on housing affordability.
2022
December 16, 2022
Targeted, Implementable, and Practical Energy Relief Measures for Households in Europe
Description: The recommended way of helping households during the ongoing European energy crisis is to allow price signals to operate freely while providing targeted compensation to the vulnerable. In practice, however, institutional, political, and technical constraints have led many European governments to adopt broad, price-suppressing measures, which impede the adjustment in demand, have high fiscal costs, and widen cross-country gaps in prices. This paper focuses on easy-to-implement, second-best policies. Bonuses or rebates on energy bills (that are not linked to the current volume of consumption) or block tariffs are simple options which would improve on the current policy design in many countries. To avoid stoking inflation, fiscal policy should not add to aggregate demand, so relief for energy bills should be targeted and coupled with offsetting fiscal measures. One option is to reclaim the relief from the better-off through income taxation, which would also make support more progressive.
December 16, 2022
The Impact of the IMF’s COVID-19 Support to Developing and Emerging Economies
Description: We construct a high-frequency dataset that combines information on all IMF lending and proxies of monthly economic activity during the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic (2020–21). Using this novel dataset and standard econometric techniques we find a positive and significant marginal effect of IMF financing on economic activity in low-income countries (LICs) and emerging market economies. We also present tentative evidence that IMF financing may have helped economic outcomes by easing fiscal budget constraints, allowing for larger government spending in response to the pandemic. Overall, this evidence suggests that IMF financing helped lessen the negative impacts of the pandemic on economic activity, especially in LICs.