Working Papers
2019
August 2, 2019
What Do Deviations from Covered Interest Parity and Higher FX Hedging Costs Mean for Asia
Description: Asian countries have high demand for U.S. dollars and are sensitive to U.S. dollar funding costs. An important, but often overlooked, component of these costs is the basis spread in the cross-currency swap market that emerges when there are deviations from covered interest parity (CIP). CIP deviations mean that investors need to pay a premium to borrow U.S. dollars or other currencies on a hedged basis via cross-currency swap markets. These deviations can be explained by regulatory changes since the global financial crisis, which have limited arbitrage opportunities and country-specific factors that contribute to a mismatch in the demand and supply of U.S. dollars. We find that an increase in the basis spread tightens financial conditions in net debtor countries, while easing financial conditions in net creditor countries. The main reason is that net debtor countries are, in general, unable to substitute smoothly to other domestic funding channels. Policies that promote reliable alternative funding sources, such as long-term corporate bond market or stable long-term investors, including a “hedging counterpart of last resort,” can help stabilize financial intermediation when U.S. dollar funding markets come under stress.
August 2, 2019
Financial Development, Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Debt Dollarization: A Firm-Level Evidence
Description: This paper examines how financial development influences the debt dollarization of nonfinancial firms in a sample of emerging market economies (EMEs). The macroeconomic channels are identified from an optimal portfolio allocation model and assessed empirically using the accounting information of nonfinancial firms from 21 EMEs during 2009–2017. The results show that financial development, measured by the private credit-to-GDP ratio, mainly reduces the influence of exchange rate volatility in determining a firm's debt currency composition, among other channels. Furthermore, the effect of exchange rate volatility becomes statistically insignificant beyond an estimated threshold credit-to-GDP ratio of 100 percent.
August 2, 2019
Labor Market Slack and the Output Gap: The Case of Korea
Description: Output gap estimates are widely used to inform macroeconomic policy decisions, including in Korea. The main determinant of these estimates is the measure of labor market slack. The traditional measure of unemployment in Korea yields an incomplete estimate of labor market slack, given that many workers prefer involuntary part-time jobs or leaving the labor force rather than registering as unemployed. This paper discusses a way in which the measure of unemployment can be broadened to yield a more accurate measure of labor market slack. This broader measure is then used to estimate the output gap using a multivariate filter, yielding a more meaningful measure of the output gap.
August 2, 2019
Optimal Monetary Policy Under Bounded Rationality
Description: The form of bounded rationality characterizing the representative agent is key in the choice of the optimal monetary policy regime. While inflation targeting prevails for myopia that distorts agents' inflation expectations, price level targeting emerges as the optimal policy under myopia regarding the output gap, revenue, or interest rate. To the extent that bygones are not bygones under price level targeting, rational inflation expectations is a minimal condition for optimality in a behavioral world. Instrument rules implementation of this optimal policy is shown to be infeasible, questioning the ability of simple rules à la Taylor (1993) to assist the conduct of monetary policy. Bounded rationality is not necessarily associated with welfare losses.
July 31, 2019
Statistical Coverage of Trade Finance - Fintechs and Supply Chain Financing
Description: Trade finance is the backbone of international trade for entities ranging from a small businesses to multi-national corporations. An estimated 80 percent of world trade relies on this form of finance (WTO, 2017). Despite its systemic importance and rapid growth, data availability is only partial. During the 2008 financial crisis, policy makers, notably the G20 recognized that the absence of comprehensive trade finance data posed a significant hurdle for policy-makers to make informed, timely decisions. This paper proposes a stand-alone dataset to reflect the scope, dynamic and recent innovations of the trade finance market to support macroeconomic policy analysis.
July 30, 2019
The Long Shadow of the Global Financial Crisis: Public Interventions in the Financial Sector
Description: We track direct public interventions and public holdings in 1,114 financial institutions over the period 2007–17 in 37 countries based on publicly available information. We use aggregate official data to validate this new dataset and estimate the fiscal impact of interventions, including the value of asset holdings remaining in state hands at end-2017. Direct public support to financial institutions amounted to $1.6 trillion ($3.5 trillion including guarantees), with larger amounts allocated to lower capitalized and less profitable banks. As of end-2017, only a few countries had fully divested the initial support they provided during the crisis. Public holdings were divested faster in better capitalized, more profitable, and more liquid banks, and in countries where the economy recovered faster. In countries where the government stake remained high relative to the initial intervention, private investment and credit growth were slower, financial access, depth, efficiency, and competition were worse, and financial stability improved less.
July 26, 2019
Price Statistics Compilation in 196 Economies: The Relevance for Policy Analysis
Description: The consumer price index (CPI) is a key economic indicator used to gauge inflation, adjust wages, pensions, and social benefits. The producer prices index (PPI) is used for forecasting and deflating GDP estimates. Both indexes are used by the Fund, policymakers, and researchers for global, regional, and domestic surveillance. In this context, the paper evaluates the soundness of the indexes by assessing four major criteria: frequency of updating the weights, the index coverage, timeliness, and the use of international classifications. We discuss online and scanner data as frontier issues. The study shows that the CPI is universally and frequently compiled, timely, and fairly-well aligned with international standards. However, the weights used to compile the index are updated in only 45 percent of economies and have national coverage in 76 percent. PPIs, compiled by only 126 economies are timely, but there is scope for continued improvement as only 36 percent of economies have updated PPI weights and approximately 67 percent maintain the recommended coverage. Outdated weights impact the reliability of the indexes for policy analysis. Frequently updated weights and well-represented coverage mitigate against biases and ensure that the indexes properly measure the price evolution in the economy.
July 26, 2019
The Nonlinear Relationship Between Public Debt and Sovereign Credit Ratings
Description: This study investigates the nonlinear relationship between public debt and sovereign credit ratings, using a wide sample of over one hundred advanced, emerging, and developing economies. It finds that: i) higher public debt lowers the probability of being placed in a higher rating category; ii) the negative debt-ratings relationship is nonlinear and depends on the rating grade itself; and iii) the identified nonlinearity explains the differential impact of debt on ratings in advanced economies versus in emerging markets and developing economies. These results hold for both gross debt and net debt, and are robust to alternative dependent variable definitions, analytical techniques, and empirical specifications. These findings underscore the potential for fiscal consolidation in helping countries achieve a better credit rating.
July 24, 2019
Do Old Habits Die Hard? Central Banks and the Bretton Woods Gold Puzzle
Description: Why did monetary authorities hold large gold reserves under Bretton Woods (1944–1971) when only the US had to? We argue that gold holdings were driven by institutional memory and persistent habits of central bankers. Countries continued to back currency in circulation with gold reserves, following rules of the pre-WWII gold standard. The longer an institution spent in the gold standard (and the older the policymakers), the stronger the correlation between gold reserves and currency. Since dollars and gold were not perfect substitutes, the Bretton Woods system never worked as expected. Even after radical institutional change, history still shapes the decisions of policymakers.
July 24, 2019
Regional Growth Spillovers in Sub-Saharan Africa
Description: This paper documents the steady increase in intraregional trade in sub-Saharan Africa since 1980, links this rise to important growth spillovers in the region, and identifies the main source countries and those most vulnerable to the economic conditions of others. Estimates show that in the short run, positive idiosyncratic shocks to regional trading partners’ growth significantly increase growth in the average sub-Saharan African country, while in the long-run the annual impact of growth in regional trading partner’s is smaller in magnitude. Policy implications including the need to support further continent-wide integration and the associated growth spillovers are discussed. Actions policymakers in sub-Saharan Africa can take to capture the benefits of these spillovers, while limiting exposure to the associated risks, are also proposed.