Country Reports
2018
March 28, 2018
Myanmar: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper analyzes banking sector developments in Myanmar. It highlights that latent banking sector risks are surfacing, following a period of rapid credit growth and as banks adjust to updated financial regulations. Over time banks will need to enhance their credit risk management, and reduce the over-reliance on collateral values to safeguard lending. A banking system action plan has been developed, to enhance the banking system’s resilience, as well as strengthen the supervisory and resolution framework. The ongoing overhaul of the prudential framework and financial sector reforms will strengthen the banking sector and its role in supporting the economy.
March 28, 2018
People’s Republic of China: Tax Policy and Employment Creation
Description: This Technical Assistance report presents an international perspective on the employment impact of tax policy, and develops recommendations considering the background in the People’s Republic of China. This report discusses the impact of tax policy including social security contributions on employment in China that covers both the taxation of employed labor and small- and medium-sized enterprises. The findings draw on economic theory, international experiences, as well as discussions with Chinese authorities during a workshop in Yangzhou and meetings in Beijing. The personal income tax on wages is low, but the tax wedge, which includes social security contributions, is high and follows an unsteady pattern, rising, falling, and again rising. The taxation of labor differs strongly by type and location of employment. The schedular system of the personal income tax means that labor taxes differ depending on the category into which income falls. Small businesses are offered some simplifications but are likely to still face disproportionally greater compliance costs.
March 23, 2018
Burkina Faso: Economic Development Documents
Description: This paper discusses various economic development documents of Burkina Faso. Economic Development Documents are prepared by member countries in broad consultation with stakeholders and development partners. They describe countries’ macroeconomic, structural, and social policies in support of growth and poverty reduction, as well as associated external financing needs and major sources of financing. The aim of the 2016–2020 National Plan for Economic and Social Development (PNDES) is to structurally transform the Burkinabè economy to generate strong, sustainable, resilient, and inclusive growth in order to create decent jobs for all and improve social well-being. As a national benchmark, the plan aims to achieve cumulative growth of per capita income to reduce poverty and meet the population’s basic needs within a fair and sustainable social framework. During the entire PNDES implementation phase, measures will be taken to improve the quality of institutions and strengthen the governance and the availability of qualified human resources to meet the economy’s structural transformation needs.
March 23, 2018
Bhutan: Technical Assistance Report-SARTTAC Report on National Accounts Statistics Mission
Description: This Technical Assistance Report discusses the findings and recommendations made the IMF mission to assist the Bhutanese authorities in improving estimates of annual GDP, and in developing methods for compiling quarterly GDP estimates. The mission found that the National Statistics Bureau (NSB) is engaged in a range of projects to improve Bhutan’s national accounts statistics. Updated annual GDP statistics signal an improvement in data quality, which should enhance policymakers’ ability to formulate and operationalize evidence-based decisions. Significant improvements to Bhutan’s national accounts statistics can be achieved using a three-step process. The NSB should also keep in mind the need to incorporate methodological and conceptual/definitional revisions during the benchmarking and rebasing process.
March 23, 2018
Lao People’s Democratic Republic: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Lao People’s Democratic Republic
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economy of Lao People’s Democratic Republic continues to perform well, supported by a favorable external environment and strong flows of foreign direct investment from its dynamic neighbors. Growth in 2017 was supported by the expansion of electricity exports, construction activity and financial services, but moderated to 6.8 percent as a result of the prohibition on illegal logging, tighter credit conditions and fewer tourist arrivals. Looking ahead, the outlook is positive, with growth on the order of 7 percent per year. Downside risks stem from high public debt and deficits, pockets of weakness, and high dollarization in the banking sector, and a vulnerable external position with low gross international reserves.
March 16, 2018
Republic of Poland: Technical Assistance Report - Building Forward Estimates and Standardizing the Chart of Accounts
Description: This Technical Assistance Report discusses the findings and recommendations made by the IMF mission about building forward estimates and standardizing the chart of accounts in Poland. The workshops identified a range of cross-cutting issues, with recommendations provided for how to apply them more broadly over the next two years, with ongoing short-term expert support. It is recommended to apply a consistent approach to treating demand driven entitlement programs, by using the existing detailed projection models and methodologies that lie within agencies and funds, but ensuring that all indices and volume parameters are in line with central macroeconomic assumptions to ensure consistency.
March 16, 2018
Kenya: Request for Extension of the Stand-By Arrangement -- Press Release and Staff Report
Description: This paper discusses Kenya’s Request for Extension of the Stand-by Arrangement (SBA). The extension is needed to provide additional time for the authorities to bring the program back on track and reach new understandings with IMF staff on policies and measures that would enable the completion of the pending reviews under the SBA for Kenya. The authorities have committed to strong corrective actions through adopting policies that will enable them to achieve program objectives and reduce near- and medium-term vulnerabilities. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for an extension of the SBA for Kenya.
March 15, 2018
Namibia: Financial System Stability Assessment
Description: The paper assesses the stability of Namibia’s financial system. Macrofinancial vulnerabilities have built up over a period of rapid economic growth in Namibia, and the financial cycle has now turned down. The sovereign debt/GDP ratio has nearly doubled since 2014 which has reinforced the already strong bank-sovereign link. The rapid rise in housing prices and household debt, banks’ large exposure to mortgages, and banks reliance on wholesale funding are sources of concern. A major decline in real estate prices would adversely affect bank capital and profitability. Financial sector oversight has been strengthened significantly since the 2006 Financial System Assessment Program, but further upgrades are needed.
March 15, 2018
Burkina Faso: Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility - Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Burkina Faso
Description: This paper discusses Burkina Faso’s Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF). The program aims to maintain macroeconomic stability while promoting sustainable and inclusive growth. Under the program, fiscal space for priority security, social, and investment spending would be supported by strengthening revenue mobilization and containing current spending, especially on wages. Efforts to improve investment selection and execution would achieve more with the resources available. Prudent public financial and debt management along with energy sector reforms would ensure fiscal sustainability and mitigate fiscal risks. Structural reforms would improve the business environment and promote diversification. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for an ECF arrangement.
March 14, 2018
Pakistan: First Post-Program Monitoring Discussions-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Pakistan
Description: This paper discusses First Post-Program Monitoring Discussions with Pakistan. Pakistan’s near-term outlook for economic growth is broadly favorable. Real GDP is expected to grow by 5.6 percent in FY2017/18, supported by improved power supply, investment related to the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor, strong consumption growth, and ongoing recovery in agriculture. Inflation has remained contained. However, continued erosion of macroeconomic resilience could put this outlook at risk. The FY2017/18 current account deficit could reach 4.8 percent of GDP, with gross international reserves further declining in a context of limited exchange rate flexibility.