Country Reports
2018
May 30, 2018
Barbados: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Barbados
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Barbados’ deficit declined to 4.4 percent of GDP in 2016, about of half that in 2014, owing to lower energy prices and a recovery in export earnings. The current account deficit is projected to continue to narrow to 3.7 percent in 2017, and to 2.9 percent of GDP in 2018 as a result of lower imports, but continued weakness in the financial account and delayed privatization will contribute to weak reserves. The fiscal deficit is estimated to have declined to 5.5 percent of GDP in FY2016/17. The IMF staff project further progress in reducing the fiscal deficit, to 4.1 percent of GDP in FY2017/18 without divestment proceeds.
May 30, 2018
Barbados: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper summarizes recent development in Barbados’s International Business and Financial Services (IBFS) sector and assesses the extent to which the loss of correspondent banking relationships (CBRs) pose a risk to its future. The contribution of the IBFS sector to the local economy has been relatively stable in recent years but its contribution to fiscal revenues has declined. The sector has displayed lower profitability since the global financial crisis. More recently, it suffered from two changes in Canadian tax legislation. Consequently, tax revenues have declined while other expenditures have largely offset such decline. The sector also faces some risks from the loss of CBRs that has affected most Caribbean countries.
May 30, 2018
Namibia: Technical Assistance Report-The National Accounts Mission
Description: This Technical Assistance report discusses the recommendations made by the IMF mission to support the Namibia Statistics Agency (NSA) in improving national accounts statistics for decision making. At present, NSA produces quarterly estimates of GDP in constant prices using a variety of indicators, some of which are sub-optimal. The IMF mission worked with the national accounts team to identify appropriate data for industries where value-added tax turnover would not be usable. For the insurance industry, the IMF mission described the conceptual framework and suggested possible data. The NSA will work with the insurance regulator to discover what data can be made available.
May 30, 2018
Qatar: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper analyzes the performance and vulnerabilities of Qatar’s nonfinancial corporate (NFC) sector. Qatar’s NFC sector is sizable in terms of the overall share of economic activity. The total turnover of these companies was US$ 28 billion in 2016. Assets of listed and non-listed NFCs in Qatar were estimated at about 115 percent of non-hydrocarbon GDP in 2016. Although profitability of Qatari corporates, as measured by Return on Equity and Return on Assets, has declined, it is still high. Qatari companies remain resilient in the face of moderate to severe interest and earnings shocks, as median Interest Coverage Ratio of Qatari firms remains well above 1. The impact of these shocks on debt-at-risk and firms-at-risk is also limited.
May 30, 2018
Islamic Republic of Mauritania: First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: This paper discusses Mauritania’s First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement. The outlook is positive, although considerable challenges remain to achieve high and inclusive growth. Vulnerabilities remain elevated and sustained reforms are needed to entrench macroeconomic stability; achieve inclusive growth that creates employment and reduces poverty; and improve the business climate and governance. Policy implementation has been satisfactory and the program is on track. All end-December 2017 performance criteria and eight of the ten structural benchmarks for December 2017–March 2018 were met; the remaining two were implemented with a one-month delay. The IMF staff recommends completion of the first review under the three-year ECF arrangement.
May 29, 2018
Islamic Republic of Afghanistan: Third Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report
Description: This paper discusses Afghanistan’s Third Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria (PCs). Program implementation through end-December 2017 was satisfactory, despite the challenging security situation and mounting political risks. All quantitative PCs and eight of the nine structural benchmarks were met. The end-April 2018 benchmark related to asset declarations by public officials was implemented with a short delay. The IMF staff supports the completion of the third review under the ECF arrangement and the authorities’ request for a modification of three PCs for June 2018.
May 29, 2018
Colombia: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Colombia
Description: This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that Colombia’s outlook is favorable as continued efforts to advance the structural reforms will foster economic diversification and productivity growth. In 2017, adequate policy management brought Colombia near completion of its adjustment to large external shocks while further advancing inclusive growth. Economic growth moderated as private investment and consumption weakened in line with lower national income. Economic growth is expected to rebound strongly in 2018 and further over the medium-term, led by strengthening investment and exports. The combined impact of the structural tax reform, a brighter outlook for oil prices and the authorities Fourth Generation infrastructure agenda will underpin investment while reducing Colombia’s relatively large infrastructure gap.
May 29, 2018
Colombia: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper examines the export growth in Colombia. Colombian exports are heavily concentrated in commodities but the large real depreciation since 2015 offers an opportunity to grow nontraditional exports substantially. Colombia’s comparative advantage in noncommodity products was weak in 2013-15, and export diversification was low, partly owing to the commodity price boom. Exports grew moderately in recent years but in line with historical relationships given fundamentals. The export outlook is positive. Given global growth assumptions, the IMF staff’s models predict acceleration in export growth. The historical experience of commodity exporters suffers large real depreciations also paints a positive picture.
May 29, 2018
Costa Rica: Technical Assistance Report-Revenue Administration Gap Analysis Program-Tax Gap Analysis for General Sales and Corporate Income Tax
Description: This Technical Assistance Report presents the estimates of tax gaps for general sales tax (GST) and corporate income tax in Costa Rica. The estimated GST compliance gap in Costa Rica increased from 29 percent in 2012 to 31 percent in 2016. The compliance gap in 2016 was equivalent to 1.9 percent of GDP. The estimated compliance gap is higher than the average value-added tax compliance gaps of European countries and Latin American countries. Large GST compliance gaps relative to GDP are observed in manufacturing, trade, and hotels and restaurants. The estimated GST policy gaps were at about 4 percent of GDP from 2012 to 2016. Most of the GST policy gap consists of the GST expenditure gap, showing the effects of policy choices.
May 28, 2018
Kingdom of the Netherlands - Netherlands: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Kingdom of the Netherlands—Netherlands
Description: This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Netherland’s economic recovery has taken hold. Real growth is forecast to reach 3.1 percent in 2018 owing to robust domestic demand. Private consumption has been supported by rising disposable income and positive wealth effects from increasing housing prices. Net exports have proven resilient to global uncertainties, pushing up the already large current account surplus. Unemployment has continued to decline rapidly, although most of the jobs have been created under temporary contracts or self-employment status. The economy is expected to keep its momentum in the coming years. Domestic consumption and investment are forecast to remain the main drivers of growth, prompting a gradual decline of the current account surplus.