Country Reports
2019
September 3, 2019
Maldives: 2005 Article IV Consultation-Public Information Notice; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Maldives
Description: This 2005 Article IV Consultation with Maldives highlights that the Maldives suffered devastating damage from the December 2004 tsunami. Although human casualties were limited, damage to infrastructure has been extensive, with the cost of reconstruction estimated at nearly a half of gross domestic product. Reconstruction work has progressed slowly in 2005 but the pace is picking up. Recovery work has been slow due to insufficient coordination, problems in local consultation, and limited management capacity. The government and donors have been addressing these problems and the pace of implementation is finally accelerating. The 2006 budget is highly expansionary and threatens sustainability. The government has added to the fiscal deficit through new recruits, expansion of untargeted social programs, and a large domestically funded public investment program while using optimistic revenue projection. Fiscal reforms are of high priority. The report also explains that monetary policy should be geared to sustaining the peg arrangement based on indirect management. The objective of monetary policy should be to support the peg arrangement, which has served well as a credible nominal anchor.
September 3, 2019
Maldives: 2007 Article IV Consultation-Public Information Notice; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Maldives
Description: This 2005 Article IV Consultation with Maldives discusses that Maldives has rebounded strongly from the tsunami of late 2004. Gross domestic product has grown rapidly, underpinned by a robust increase in tourist arrivals, and by construction activity pertaining to the development of new resorts. Inflation remains low although it is on a rising trend. The exchange rate peg continues to serve the country well. The main challenge for Maldives is to ensure that favorable growth prospects are not undermined by fiscal excesses and consequent macroeconomic instability. The IMF staff urged the authorities to prioritize expenditures in line with more realistic revenue estimates, so as to achieve the stated objective of zero domestic financing of the budget. There has been a recent increase in debt ratios due to construction of new resorts and the government’s ambitious infrastructure program. The new central bank act has separated the positions of finance minister and governor of the central bank and reorganized the governing body of the central bank. Going forward it will be important to entrench central bank independence.
September 3, 2019
Maldives: 2012 Article IV Consultation-Public Information Notice; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Maldives
Description: This 2012 Article IV Consultation with Maldives discusses that fiscal position is weak, and its external reserves are critically low. The country has a long history of fiscal and external imbalances. Macroeconomic policies need adjustment. The authorities have taken important steps in the 2013 budget to reduce the fiscal deficit, but further consolidation is needed, both to ensure debt sustainability and to strengthen the balance of payments. That latter goal would be aided by devaluation, combined with a restrictive incomes and subsidy policy, which would address the current overvaluation of the rufiyaa and help to curb imports. Monetary tightening would help to prevent the need for a further devaluation. Financial supervision, particularly with regard to the state bank, also needs strengthening. Given the track record, a Staff Monitored Program could be the appropriate starting point for any renewed engagement, however, in order to begin discussions, there would need to be a clear commitment on the authorities’ part to implementing a comprehensive set of policy adjustments.
September 3, 2019
Maldives: 2001 Article IV Consultation-Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Maldives
Description: This 2001 Article IV Consultation with Maldives highlights that the economic challenges faced by Maldives are strongly influenced by geography and environment. The government’s overarching development strategy consists of creating new growth centers in the north and the south of the country and massive land reclamation in the vicinity of Male. Notwithstanding a slowdown in growth in 2000, Maldives’ economy has prospered with the rapid expansion of tourism and the modernization of the fisheries. At the conclusion of the last Article IV consultation on November 9, 2000, Executive Directors praised Maldives’ overall performance, however, warned of emerging imbalances. Fiscal slippage, compounded by adverse external developments, has been the main cause of recent imbalances in the Maldivian economy, manifested in rapid monetary expansion and sustained pressure on the exchange rate. The report shows that monetary developments have been dominated by central bank financing of fiscal deficits and excess demand for foreign exchange. The IMF staff team concluded that an adjustment of the exchange rate was not warranted until other options had been explored more fully.
August 30, 2019
Romania: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Supplement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Romania
Description: This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Romania discusses that growth in 2019 is expected to stay above potential at 4 percent, led by continued fiscal stimulus and strong wage growth, and be accompanied by further widening of current account and fiscal deficits. The focus of discussions was on actions required to curb the widening imbalances and to re-orient the economy toward investment and sustainable income convergence. It is recommended that Romania take advantage of strong growth and start durable fiscal consolidation underpinned by high-quality measures to rein in the twin deficits and improve the macroeconomic policy mix. The more fiscal policy tightens, the less monetary tightening is needed. The report also advises to modernize revenue administration and improve expenditure efficiency. Reassessment of the new pension law to balance social needs and fiscal sustainability is also important. Rising vulnerability calls for a balanced macroeconomic policy mix built on durable fiscal consolidation. High-quality fiscal consolidation would reduce the burden on monetary policy for macroeconomic stabilization, mitigate external pressure by containing the current account deterioration, and bolster growth potential by improving the balance between consumption and investment.
August 29, 2019
The Gambia: Technical Assistance Report-Public Investment Management Assessment
Description: This Technical Assistance Report on The Gambia highlights that the government has highlighted infrastructure development as a key element of National Development Plan, 2018–21. The report discusses that the need for increased public investment in the Gambia should be balanced against potential fiscal risks related to future Public–Private Partnerships and State-Owned Enterprise investments. Analysis of public investment patterns shows a fragmented picture, in which external financing dominates. Measures of the efficiency of infrastructure investments show mixed results and considerable room for improvement. The analysis explains that the Gambia’s performance across different Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA) indicators is mixed and does not compare favorably with regional counterparts. Nevertheless, there are many indicators where the PIMA rating is poor. Prevailing weaknesses include the presence of many information gaps and non-transparent disclosure policies. The mission’s main recommendations focus on five priority areas and are designed to complement reforms that are already being undertaken.
August 23, 2019
People’s Republic of China: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper focuses on the drivers, implications and outlook for China’s shrinking current account surplus. Although cyclical factors helped in 2018, the trend decline has been largely structural, driven by rebalancing, appreciation of the real effective exchange rate toward equilibrium, increase in outbound tourism, and moderation in goods surplus reflecting market saturation and China’s faster growth compared with trading partners. Policies should focus on continued rebalancing and opening to ensure excessive surpluses do not return; and to prepare the economy and the financial system to handle more volatile capital flows. From a global perspective, the decline in China’s surplus has lowered global imbalances, with different impact across countries, with the trade balances of Korea, Germany, Brazil improving vis-à-vis China, while that of Japan, India, and Indonesia deteriorating. Further declines in the current account surplus will reduce excess global imbalances—a positive development for global stability.
August 23, 2019
Guinea: Third Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Request for Modification of Performance Criterion and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; Supplementary Information; and Statement by the Executive Director for Guinea
Description: This paper discusses Guinea’s Third Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Request for Modification of Performance Criterion and Financing Assurances Review. Performance against end-December 2018 targets was satisfactory. All performance criteria and the indicative target (IT) on social safety net spending were met. A strong package of adjustment measures was implemented to achieve the end-2018 fiscal target. The ITs on tax revenue and the accumulation of new domestic arrears were not met. Program performance was satisfactory at end-March 2019, with most ITs met. Program-supported reforms advanced. Two of the four structural benchmarks were met, with substantial progress on the other two and full completion expected by. Additional adjustment measures are expected to be implemented to achieve a basic fiscal surplus in 2019, compensating for anticipated higher electricity subsidies and lower tax revenue. In parallel, public investment will be scaled-up to support growth. Advancing programmed tax measures and applying the petroleum prices adjustment mechanism will be key to support revenue mobilization.
August 23, 2019
Republic of Mozambique: Diagnostic Report on Transparency, Governance and Corruption
Description: This Diagnostic Report on Transparency, Governance and Corruption for the Republic of Mozambique highlights that the economy is at a turning point, and efforts to address governance and corruption vulnerabilities can have a lasting positive impact. The current levels of public debt have caused us to take a hard look at our governance and anticorruption framework and have prompted various reforms to address the vulnerabilities exposed in this framework. The governance and anticorruption framework is not consistently or comprehensively enforced. The rule of law is undermined by the insufficient implementation of existing legislation and regulations, including, in some cases through the absence of necessary regulations and explanatory guidelines. Civil society, the private sector, and the development partners in Mozambique also have critical roles to play. In addition, issues related to poor governance and corruption cannot be effectively addressed unless similar attention is paid to their transnational aspects, which need to be handled at a regional and global level, in multilateral and other international fora.
August 15, 2019
Dominican Republic: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Dominican Republic
Description: This 2019 Article IV Consultation with the Dominican Republic discusses that the economy rebounded to a record high growth of 7 percent in 2018, with the positive momentum carrying into early 2019. The strong economic and policy performance has strengthened resilience to downside risks, but vulnerabilities remain. The fiscal position is under moderate sustainability and affordability pressures; key structural bottlenecks have not been addressed; and social outcomes can be further strengthened. Upcoming elections in 2020 are likely to dominate the near-term policy landscape. The outlook is favorable, with growth moderating to potential, inflation picking up toward target with fading supply shocks, and the external position normalizing. Risks are moderate and balanced: on the upside, solid income and credit growth could sustain domestic demand, while on the downside external risks are building up. Tighter fiscal policies are warranted by demand, sustainability and affordability considerations. A frontloaded adjustment, anchored on widening the tax base and mindful of the distributional effects of the adjustment measures, would help reverse the upward debt dynamics.