Country Reports
2019
October 29, 2019
France: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Macroprudential Policy Framework and Tools
Description: This technical note on macroprudential policy framework and tools on France highlights that the institutional arrangements provide adequate powers to ensure Haut conseil de stabilité financière’s (HCSF) ability to act; however, some tools remain outside its legal domain. The report also discusses that The HCSF should evaluate effects of tools introduced to mitigate risks from corporate leverage. The HCSF should continue to monitor vulnerabilities in the corporate sector and once enough data is available, evaluate the impact on the tools introduced on: resilience of the financial system; and corporate borrowing behavior. A sectoral systemic risk buffer, calibrated to corporate exposures, could be considered if vulnerabilities intensify. A fiscal measure that incentivizes corporates to finance through equity rather than debt would affect both bank and market-based finance. Such a measure would have an impact on the demand for credit, rather than its supply. The macroprudential policy toolkit should be strengthened further.
October 29, 2019
France: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Key Attributes of Effective Resolution Regimes for Insurance Companies
Description: This technical note explores key attributes of effective resolution regimes (KA) for insurance companies on France. The safety net in the sector is composed by two policyholder protection schemes, which can provide support in liquidation proceedings. The report highlights that there is consensus with the authorities that the new framework reflects many, however, not all elements needed for full compliance with the KAs, and the areas where further progress is needed. Alignment of the framework with KAs in terms of the institutional organization and infrastructure is high. The scope and responsibilities of the Prudential Supervision and Resolution Authority are clearly established in the law, as well as the cases when those are applicable, and its interaction with other relevant policy-making entities. The new framework targets all institutions considered systemic, given their size and other relevant features. Its’ current implementation is guided solely by the threshold in terms of total assets; any holding company, group, mutual, or foreign subsidiary above this level is subject to Recovery and Resolution Planning requirements.
October 24, 2019
Bosnia and Herzegovina: Technical Assistance Report-Implementation of a New Reserve Requirement Framework
Description: This Technical Assistance (TA) report on Bosnia and Herzegovina highlights that the negative spread in a context of structural lower returns on foreign exchange reserves and sizable capital inflows has led to a gradual and steady erosion of the currency board coverage ratio. The Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina (CBBH) requested Technical Assistance to review its reserve requirement framework. The mission recommends aligning the remuneration of reserve requirements on foreign exchange liabilities to the CBBH’s opportunity cost. The mission also recommends prescribing the fulfilment in foreign currency of the reserve requirements for foreign currency liabilities. It also suggested altering the remuneration scheme of domestic reserve requirements. In order to be neutral from an intermediation perspective, the reserve requirement remuneration should be aligned to the market-neutral uncovered interest rate parity rate, whereas the remuneration of excess reserves may take place significantly below the market-neutral rate but at or above the foreign currency remuneration rate. The CBBH may benefit from a constructive dialogue with the Area Department or TA to set the new rates of remuneration of domestic reserve requirement and excess reserves.
October 24, 2019
Thailand: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Risk Assessment
Description: This technical note on the risk assessment for Thailand discusses that the Thai banking system shows a substantial resilience to severe shocks. The solvency stress tests indicate that the largest banks can withstand an adverse scenario broadly as severe as the Asian financial crisis. While three banks would deplete their capital conservation buffer (CCB) under the adverse scenario, recapitalization needs would be minimal. A battery of complementary sensitivity stress tests, which allows to cover in more detail certain risk factors, also confirmed the overall picture of a resilient baking system: no particular vulnerability emerged from the analysis of the bond portfolio to an increase in government and corporate spreads, exposure to foreign exchange risk, and concentration risk in the loan portfolio, with the possible exception of one entity with a particular concentration on single-name exposures. The liquidity stress test on investment funds (IFs) showed that they would be able to withstand a severe redemption shock and its impact on the banks and the bond market would be limited.
October 24, 2019
Thailand: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Detailed Assessment of Observance-Insurance Core Principles
Description: This Detailed Assessment of Observance on Insurance Core Principles on Thailand discusses that the government of Thailand has made a concerted effort to develop the insurance sector. The government has implemented a series of insurance development plans toward this end. Some significant regulatory and supervisory challenges remain, however, if Thailand is to continue to meet the pressures of a changing market and to continue to build the trust on which future growth depends. Consideration should be given to vesting more supervisory authority for key supervisory decisions with the Commission rather than with the Minister and Cabinet. Vesting authority with the Commission will help to ensure that the insurance supervisor has adequate powers to meet the objectives of insurance supervision. With respect to winding up and exit from the market, the insurance legislation should be amended to clearly establish a point at which it is no longer permissible for a troubled insurer to continue in business.
October 24, 2019
Thailand: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Detailed Assessment of Observance-Basel Core Principles For Effective Banking Supervision
Description: This Detailed Assessment of Observance on the Basel Core Principles (BCP) for effective banking supervision on Thailand highlights that there have been significant enhancements to the legal framework and the supervisory process since the last BCP review, resulting in high compliance. The commercial banking sector appears to be sound and stable with a diversified lending profile and a steady source of funding. The involvement of other ministerial authorities in Specialized Financial Institutions supervision may affect standard-setting processes and the mindset of key decision makers for commercial banks when trying to level regulatory standards. The supervisory framework and practices provide the foundation for the continued development of risk-based supervision. Notifications and examination manuals increasingly focus on analysis of qualitative factors such as governance, risk management and risk appetite statements to determine the bank’s composite rating. The report recommends that efficiency of enforcement actions would be increased by aligning Financial Institutions Business Act requirements and Bank of Thailand internal practices.
October 23, 2019
Djibouti: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Djibouti
Description: This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Djibouti discusses that large-scale infrastructure investments and a rapid expansion of trade and logistics activities have fueled strong growth in recent years. The government has in recent years implemented large-scale investments to develop transport and logistics infrastructures. Combined with business climate reforms, this development strategy has fueled strong growth and positioned Djibouti well to become a regional trade and logistics hub. The IMF staff’s baseline projections assume a significant reduction in debt financed public investment. Growth is nonetheless projected to remain strong, driven by the rapid expansion in Ethiopia’s trade and a pickup in private investment. Fostering higher and inclusive growth and bolstering the external position require addressing impediments to private sector investment and improving external competitiveness. Critical reforms include further enhancing the business environment, promoting competition, and improving the governance and efficiency of public enterprises to lower factor costs, particularly in the telecommunications and electricity sectors.
October 23, 2019
Morocco: First Review Under the Arrangement Under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Morocco
Description: This paper discusses Morocco’s First Review Under the Arrangement Under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL). The Moroccan authorities are committed to sustaining sound policies. The government’s economic program remains in line with key reforms agreed under the PLL arrangement, including to further reduce fiscal and external vulnerabilities, while strengthening the foundations for higher and more inclusive growth. The transition to greater exchange rate flexibility initiated in 2018 is expected to enhance the economy’s capacity to absorb shocks and preserve its external competitiveness. The current favorable economic environment remains supportive to continue this reform in a carefully sequenced and well-communicated manner. The report recommends that continued reforms are needed to raise potential growth and reduce high unemployment levels, especially among the youth, increase female labor participation, and reduce regional disparities. Reforms of education, governance, the labor market, and the business environment would help support more private sector-led growth and job creation.
October 17, 2019
Lebanon: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper studies the inefficiencies related to the electricity sector and assesses the potential impact of the 2019 reform plan. Electricity shortages are the second constraint to competitiveness reported by businesses in Lebanon, based on the Enterprise Survey conducted by the World Bank. Lebanon’s electricity sector performance is worse than other similar countries in the region. Many businesses must rely on costly private generators. Income inequalities are exacerbated by both the geographical disparities in Electricité du Liban’s (EdL) electricity provision and its tariff structure. The most vulnerable households are the small consumers located in regions with little electricity provision from EdL. A new electricity plan was approved by Cabinet on April 9, 2019 and ratified by Parliament on April 17, 2019. Although it is critical that the plan is decisively implemented, it is also important that it is enhanced further to fully restore EdL’s viability. Introducing well-targeted measures, such as cash transfers, would help protect the most vulnerable households from the tariff increase. As planned in the reform package, consumer tariffs should be indexed on the evolution of input prices to guarantee that it will not be negatively impacted by future developments in fuel or gas prices.
October 17, 2019
Lebanon: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Informational Annex; and Statement by the Executive Director for Lebanon
Description: This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Lebanon highlights that Lebanon’s economic position continues to be very difficult, with very low growth, high public debt and large twin deficits. While financial stability has been maintained, deposit inflows, critical to finance the budget and external deficits, slowed down during the past year, reducing the authorities’ room for manoeuvre. The new government has taken some important policy steps to start the needed policy adjustment, which could help raise confidence among investors and donors. The highest priority is the implementation of a sustainable fiscal adjustment that will bend down the path of the public debt-to-gross domestic product ratio through a combination of revenue and expenditure measures. This needs to be complemented by structural reforms and concessionally financed investment to raise Lebanon’s growth potential and help external adjustment, as well as policies to build further buffers in Lebanon’s financial sector. Structural reforms should prioritize reforming the electricity sector, removing impediments to and lowering the cost of doing business, as well as improving governance and reducing corruption.