Country Reports
2019
August 2, 2019
Zambia: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Zambia
Description: This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Zambia highlights that the development strategy has targeted a rapid scale-up of public investment to address infrastructure needs. Recent efforts to adjust the fiscal stance have delivered some improvement in revenues; however, deficits have continued to rise following faster-than-budgeted execution of foreign-financed capital spending. With the anticipated growth dividend yet to materialize, the debt burden has risen sharply, resulting in currency weakness and rising local borrowing costs that have further pushed up the interest bill. A large, frontloaded, and sustained fiscal effort is needed to bring debt down to safer levels. This should include a moratorium on contracting new external non-concessional borrowing, steps to raise revenues, halt the build-up of domestic expenditure arrears, and to better prioritize public investment projects. Decisive steps forward to build confidence and deliver meaningful fiscal adjustment will be essential. Appropriately tight monetary policy also has a role to play in securing stability. Reserves should be replenished over the medium term. Steady attention to the business environment is also needed to support private investment going forward.
August 1, 2019
Republic of Madagascar: Fifth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Madagascar
Description: This paper discusses Republic of Madagascar’s Fifth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement. Madagascar’s performance under its economic program supported by the ECF arrangement has remained generally strong. Discussions focused on the recently adopted 2019 revised budget law, which reflects the priorities of the new government and accommodates additional investment spending without undermining the main program objectives, as well as on the two main challenges relating to fuel pricing and the losses of the public utility JIRAMA. Other issues discussed included the strengthening of social safety nets, reforms in the financial sector, and progress on governance. Growth has been solid, inflation has been moderate, and the external position has remained robust. Going forward, the authorities’ continued commitment to strong policies and an ambitious structural reform agenda will be key to mitigating internal and external risks, strengthening macroeconomic stability, and achieving higher, sustainable, and inclusive growth.
August 1, 2019
Somalia: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Second Review Under the Staff-Monitored Program, and Request for New Staff-Monitored Program-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Somalia
Description: This paper discusses Somalia’s 2019 Article IV Consultation, Second Review Under the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP), and Request for New SMP. Program implementation of SMP III has been strong, with all but one structural benchmark and all indicative targets met. The authorities have requested a new 15-month SMP to cement reforms and support reaching the Heavily Indebted Poor Country decision point as soon as the necessary conditions are met. The new national development plan will outline the authorities’ priorities with respect to poverty reduction and inclusive growth. The consultation focused on policies to support higher and more inclusive growth, strengthen the medium-term fiscal framework, deepen the financial sector, increase economic resilience, and improve governance and the business environment. Discussions highlighted the need to implement a durable fiscal federal framework, establish a robust framework for effective natural resource management, and develop the medium-term fiscal framework. However, security and political risks, and climate shocks remain the main sources of risk.
July 31, 2019
Indonesia: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Indonesia
Description: This 2019 Article IV Consultation discusses that the Indonesian economy performed well in 2018, despite external headwinds, including capital flow reversals. Growth stabilized above 5 percent and inflation eased to around 3 percent. A surge in imports and weak export growth contributed to a higher current account deficit. Growth is projected to remain stable over the medium term. Inflation is expected to remain within the target band and the current account deficit is expected to narrow gradually on lower imports. Risks are tilted to the downside and are mainly external. Reliance on portfolio inflows to finance the twin deficits leaves Indonesia vulnerable to capital flow reversals. Creating quality jobs for the young and growing population to harness Indonesia’s demographic dividend requires a stronger impetus to growth, which has been constrained by structural weaknesses, including low tax revenues, shallow financial markets, and labor and product market rigidities.
July 31, 2019
Indonesia: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper provides an overview of the exchange rate and trade dynamics in Indonesia. Using data on monthly export and import price and volume at the sectoral level, the paper estimates pass-through effects of exchange rate changes to trade price and volume. Results indicate adjustment frictions that depend on the source of the exchange rate fluctuation and the degree of integration in global value chains. Overall, combining price and volume effects, we find that 10 percent depreciation in the exchange rate is associated with a rise in the goods net-exports of up to 1.6 percent of GDP. Results indicate that there is considerable asymmetry and sectoral heterogeneity in the pass-throughs of exchange rate on import and export prices. Import prices adjust well to exchange rate fluctuations with the effects being stronger for appreciation episodes. The price sensitivity of export prices to exchange rate shocks is generally lower than of imports and concentrated over shorter horizons and during episodes of depreciation. The price and quantity results imply that exchange rate changes can have significant effects on the current account, by affecting movements in net-exports of goods.
July 31, 2019
Cabo Verde: Staff Report for the 2019 Article IV Consultation and Request for an Eighteen-Month Policy Coordination Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Cabo Verde
Description: This paper discusses Cabo Verde’s 2019 Article IV Consultation and Request for an Eighteen-Month Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI). The PCI aims at bolstering macroeconomic stability through fiscal consolidation and growth-enhancing reforms to support medium-term fiscal and debt sustainability. Policy discussions and the PCI-supported program focused on achieving medium-term fiscal and debt sustainability; modernizing the monetary policy framework and continuing to build precautionary reserves; bolstering the financial system resilience; restructuring lossmaking State-Owned Enterprises; and advancing structural reforms to support private sector-led growth. The medium-term outlook is positive although risks are tilted to the downside. Economic growth is projected to remain robust while the fiscal and external positions are expected to improve further, underpinned by growth and programmed structural reforms.
July 31, 2019
Republic of Lithuania: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report
Description: This 2019 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Lithuanian economy has continued to enjoy a strong macroeconomic and fiscal performance, but long-term challenges remain largely unaddressed. The continued strong economic performance suggests that a neutral fiscal stance would have been preferable in the year 2019. The report discusses that Lithuania needs sustained productivity gains to ensure higher living standards and convergence with Western Europe. Macroeconomic and financial stability is a prerequisite for sustained growth and has been achieved through prudent policies and labor market flexibility. Nevertheless, significant and well-identified structural challenges have yet to be addressed with ambitiously designed and decisively implemented productivity-enhancing reforms. The current expansionary cyclical environment and strong fiscal and external positions provide an ideal opportunity to address these challenges. Fintech provides big opportunities to improve financial services and produce high-skill jobs; however, it also brings challenges, particularly related to antimoney laundering. The authorities’ efforts to promote fintech are already delivering results.
July 31, 2019
Republic of Lithuania: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper investigates skills mismatch and active labor market policy in Lithuania. Wage flexibility is underpinned by one of the lowest densities of trade union and employer organization and the rare occurrence of collective bargaining. Thus, wage setting largely happens at the firm level. Real wages and productivity have been traditionally closely linked and temporary deviations have been self-correcting. In contrast, structural unemployment has been traditionally high, although it appears to be gradually falling. Large structural unemployment can have a significant long-term impact on potential growth and, therefore, on employment. Lithuania suffers from relative labor shortage for high-skilled workers and surplus of low- and medium-skilled workers. Thus, there are labor shortages in skill-intensive sectors. Lithuania has shown a sharp rise in skills mismatch for the country in the aftermath of the crisis. Vacancy rates and wage growth by sectors also suggest an excess supply of lower skilled workers and shortage of high-skilled ones.
July 31, 2019
Burkina Faso: Second Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Burkina Faso
Description: This paper discusses Burkina Faso’s Second Review of the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement and Request for a Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion. Performance under the ECF-supported program has been broadly satisfactory. Economic activity remains resilient in the face of increased security and social tension pressures. Growth in 2018 remained resilient as a bumper harvest more than compensated for a decline in nonagricultural gross domestic product growth. Burkina Faso continues to pursue its development goals, and further support from the international community to address security and development needs is important. Additional effort is required to create fiscal space to support further progress in priority areas of development. The authorities are taking steps to strengthen the implementation of the automatic fuel price adjustment mechanism while developing social safety nets for the most vulnerable. In this respect, greater transparency, improved communication and the avoidance of discretionary implementation of the mechanism are crucial.
July 31, 2019
Chad: Staff Report for the 2019 Article IV Consultation, Fourth Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Chad
Description: This paper discusses Chad’s 2019 Article IV Consultation, Fourth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement, Request for Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review. Article IV discussions focused on policy priorities to deal with legacies from the crisis and the longstanding structural weaknesses. Reducing government domestic debt and domestic arrears would address key impediments to growth that persist from the crisis. Sustained efforts are needed to increase non-oil revenues, improve the efficiency and quality of public spending, and reduce the vulnerability of the fiscal position to oil price fluctuations. Performance under the ECF-supported program has been broadly satisfactory with continued improvement in the fiscal position and progress in implementing structural reforms in spite recent delays. Overall economic activity strengthened in 2018; however, further reform efforts are needed to support the recovery in the non-oil sector and improve social conditions. Chad’s program is supported by the implementation of policies and reforms by the regional institutions which are critical to its success.