Country Reports
2024
June 4, 2024
Djibouti: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Djibouti
Description: The 2024 Article IV Consultation with Djibouti discusses that the economic outlook remains cautiously optimistic for 2024 and the medium-term albeit subject to considerable uncertainty. Regional risks, including potential trade disruptions, pose challenges in a context of tight budgetary resources. Stronger-than-expected trade from Ethiopia could support growth, and fully addressing the debt burden could improve debt sustainability and create fiscal space. Growth, estimated at 7 percent in 2023, is set to remain strong at 6.5 percent in 2024. Inflation is expected to have averaged around 1.8 percent in 2023 and projected to remain subdued. While Djibouti is well positioned to benefit from a rebound in trade, its strong dependence on Ethiopian trade exposes the country to trade shocks and the outlook in Ethiopia. In the short term, concluding debt renegotiations and clearing arrears will be essential to restoring debt sustainability. In the medium and long term, entrenching sustainability will require strengthening the revenue base, including from state-owned enterprises.
June 4, 2024
Djibouti: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper focuses on empowering diverse futures. The economy of Djibouti grew at an unprecedented rate during the last decade, but the investment-led economic expansion did not translate into tangible labor market’s improvements. The capital-intensive nature of the country’s growth model limits job creation, while growing skill mismatches in the labor market have increased structural unemployment. While access to education has increased dramatically since the 2000s, more could be done in improving the quality of education and expanding vocational and adult learning. Moreover, stepping-up diversification would support the development of more labor-intensive sectors, further spreading the benefits from growth to all Djiboutians. The timely collection of labor market statistics remains a key constraint for supporting decision-making and job creation. The design and implementation of adequate policy frameworks to foster job creation requires complete and timely labor market data. The frequent collection of basic labor market data, such the unemployment rate, remains a priority for policy design and implementation.
June 4, 2024
Republic of Kosovo: Second Reviews Under the Stand-By Arrangement and the Arrangement Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility and Request for Modification of Reform Measure-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Kosovo
Description: This Selected Issues paper presents Republic of Kosovo’s Second Reviews under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) and the Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) and Request for Modification of Reform Measure. Kosovo’s economic activity continues to expand at a robust pace, despite a challenging external environment, and inflation has declined markedly. The Kosovo authorities continue to advance their economic program and structural reform and climate agenda, supported by the SBA and the Arrangement under the RSF. Program performance under both arrangements remains strong. The authorities are advancing an ambitious green agenda. The RSF has supported efforts to strengthen the regulatory framework and increase policy space to attract private investment into green energy. The successful completion of a pilot competitive auction for solar electricity generation and a first auction for wind electricity generation are important steps in the authorities’ plan to expand renewable energy capacity. Reducing emissions and improving air quality, increasing energy efficiency, improving targeting of energy subsidies, and enhancing energy security are important goals of Kosovo’s green agenda.
May 31, 2024
Gabon: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Gabon
Description: The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that Gabon’s post-pandemic recovery held up well in the face of recent shocks. The economy hit a soft patch in 2023, following a series of logistics disruptions, political uncertainty, and high fuel prices for businesses, but it is set to resume its potential growth of around 3 percent this year as shocks dissipate. The transition authorities now face a historic opportunity to pivot toward a more transparent and inclusive model of governance, but overcoming decades of entrenched institutional practice will require sustained reform efforts to achieve a point of no return. Discussions focused on the main challenges facing the transition government: ensuring transparency in the management of public resources, putting the fiscal position on a sustainable footing, and raising potential growth, while making it more inclusive. Fiscal imbalances need to be urgently addressed to reduce liquidity risks and avoid unsustainable debt dynamics, as well as to support the external objectives of the currency union. Addressing transparency and governance gaps is critical for understanding the fiscal position, efficiently managing public resources, and supporting the business climate.
May 31, 2024
Ecuador: Request for an Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ecuador
Description: This paper highlights Ecuador’s Request for an Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). The authorities implemented swift and bold measures in early 2024 to address the fiscal and liquidity challenges and requested a 48-month EFF arrangement of SDR 3 billion to support their policy plans and advance an ambitious structural reform agenda. IMF estimates that IMF resources are needed to close a financing gap of about US$4 billion during the program period, after factoring in an ambitious and large fiscal plan, financial support from international financial institutions and official bilateral partners, and renewed access to international capital markets. The baseline scenario under the program is, however, subject to substantive risks, stemming from both external and domestic factors. IMF assesses that the policy program provides a reasonably strong prospect of success, amid broad support to the main objectives of the EFF arrangement, and strong commitment and capacity by the authorities to take measures to ensure its successful implementation.
May 31, 2024
Gabon: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper investigates the determinants of sovereign spreads in 50 Emerging Market and Developing Economies, using a fixed effects panel model and leverages the results to draw lessons for improving funding costs in Gabon. The analysis finds that weak governance, high public debt, weak economic performance, a poor government payment record of accomplishment, and social vulnerabilities are the main factors that increase Gabon’s spreads. Strengthening policies in these areas—by bringing indicators for government effectiveness, regulatory quality, and the fiscal position to the median for sovereigns rated Banks Board Bureau by Fitch, as well as clearing external government arrears—could help reduce spreads by at least 500 bp and save at least 0.4 percent of gross domestic product in annual interest costs. The results also give insights into what it might take Gabon to reach investment grade. Investment grade bond spreads are approximately 200 basis points, around 400 basis points below Gabon’s February 2024 level. Strengthening growth drivers and economic diversification is imperative to improve the long-term performance of the economy.
May 30, 2024
People’s Republic of China—Macao Special Administrative Region: 2024 Article IV Consultation Discussions-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that Macao Special Administrative Region (SAR)’s economy rebounded strongly after the relaxation of coronavirus disease 2019 containment measures in Mainland China. Real gross domestic product increased by 80.5 percent in 2023, recovering much of the decline during the pandemic. A stronger slump in the Mainland’s property sector and higher for longer interest rates in the major economies are the main short-term risks to the outlook. The secular growth slowdown in Mainland China could weigh on Macao SAR’s medium-term growth. Moreover, medium-term growth could be adversely affected by extreme climate events. The authorities should encourage banks to hold higher provisioning to bolster their shock absorbing capacity, enhance the insolvency and debt resolution and restructuring frameworks, and strengthen systemic risk assessment and monitoring. Economy-wide structural reforms focused on incentivizing R&D and innovation, upskilling and reskilling the labor force, and streamlining labor and business regulations would be key for achieving the government’s economic diversification objectives. A comprehensive assessment of investment needs for climate adaptation and its integration in the medium-term fiscal plan would buttress the authorities’ efforts to enhance the economy’s resilience against climate-related disasters.
May 30, 2024
People’s Republic of China—Macao Special Administrative Region: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper focuses on economic diversification in Macao Special Administration Region (SAR). The plan envisions the development of four nascent industries. This Selected Issues paper explores product level counterpart data on the exports of goods to identify the availability of knowledge that Macao SAR can leverage to enhance its diversification gains. The analysis first attempts to identify distinctive characteristics of Macao SAR’s export basket. Second, it unravels the availability of Macao SAR’s productive knowledge and assesses how different it is from the productive knowledge needed for the government’s targeted industries. Additionally, it explores Guangdong region’s productive knowledge and identifies synergies between Macao SAR’s targeted industries through the economic diversification plan. It also draws policy implications for Macao SAR to enhance the effectiveness of its diversification policies, including in the Guangdong-Macao In-Depth Cooperation Zone. The authorities should implement economy-wide reforms that improve efficiency and resource allocation to capitalize on the knowledge base available in the Greater Bay Area.
May 28, 2024
Rwanda: Third Reviews under the Policy Coordination Instrument and the Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility, and the First Review under the Standby Credit Facility Arrangement-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: This paper presents Rwanda’s Third Reviews under the Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) and the Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), and the First Review under the Standby Credit Facility (SCF). Program performance under the PCI/SCF has been strong, with successful implementation of reforms on social safety nets and spending rationalization. Progress on the climate agenda under the RSF also remains strong, bolstering Rwanda's resilience to climate shocks. Despite challenging external conditions and ongoing fiscal consolidation, Rwanda's economy maintains robust growth. Going forward, the policy mix should prioritize macroeconomic and financial stability, fiscal sustainability, and the restoration of buffers. Monetary policy should anchor inflation around the center of the target band, while continued exchange rate flexibility will help absorb external shocks and support current account adjustment. Sustained reform momentum under the RSF will enhance the economy's resilience to climate shocks, position Rwanda as a regional leader in climate initiatives, and help catalyze climate financing from development partners and the private sector.
May 28, 2024
Mauritius: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper focuses on improving revenue mobilization in Mauritius and assessing the potential and reform options. The tax gap in Mauritius is estimated at 5.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), at the top end of tax gaps of its peers. Both domestic and international taxation reforms could help narrow the gap. Reforming the personal income tax (PIT) and the value added tax (VAT) could altogether yield 3 percent of GDP in additional tax revenue. This could be achieved by lowering PIT thresholds, while increasing the top rates, and streamlining VAT exemptions. The expected implementation of the global minimum tax on corporations internationally provides an opportunity to reconsider the tax policy approach to investment promotion in Mauritius. A desirable strategy for Mauritius would be to move away from the generous benefits offered, including tax holidays, toward a more neutral taxation of investments. While there is potential to mobilize additional revenue through tax reforms, care should be taken that vulnerable households are protected, including through compensatory social spending.