Country Reports
2024
May 28, 2024
Cyprus: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper highlights disinflation and monetary transmission in Cyprus. Inflation in Cyprus dropped in 2023 due to the diminishing impact of supply-side shocks and moderating demand. However, some domestic price pressures persist, mostly from nonfiscal aggregate demand. The analysis suggests that high core inflation in 2023 was driven both by demand and supply factors. The post-pandemic inflation surge is attributed to both supply and demand factors, with the latter dominating most of the time. Wage dynamics will influence the inflation outlook. While risks of a wage-price spiral have declined substantially, the extent to which remaining demand pressures will affect future inflation will partly depend on wage dynamics. Deposit rates saw delayed and smaller increases, likely driven by high banking sector liquidity and low competition. Continued commitment to containing aggregate demand is supporting the final stage of disinflation. The last mile of disinflation would benefit from containing aggregate demand. While supply disruptions are no longer materially impacting inflation, domestic demand continues to put pressure on prices.
May 28, 2024
Mauritius: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Mauritius
Description: The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that Mauritius has rebounded strongly from the pandemic on the back of buoyant tourism, social housing construction, and financial services. The outlook for growth remains favorable, headline inflation is projected to ease further, and public debt is projected to continue moderating over the medium term. Risks to the outlook are on the downside, including from deterioration in global growth, higher-than-anticipated fuel and food prices, and extreme climate events. The macroeconomic policy mix should be recalibrated to rebuild fiscal and external buffers and maintain financial stability. Achieving high-income status will require continued structural reforms to promote competitiveness and economic diversification. Advance structural reforms, including those that bolster skills in the domestic labor market and support female labor force participation, foster digitalization, and enhance climate-resilient infrastructure investment. It is imperative to strengthen the effectiveness of the new monetary policy framework and stand ready to tighten the monetary policy stance should inflationary pressures re-emerge.
May 28, 2024
Cyprus: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Cyprus
Description: The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that Cyprus recovered swiftly from the pandemic and has proven resilient to multiple adverse shocks. Growth moderated in 2023 with slowing consumption growth, lower services exports to Russia, and fading post-pandemic base effects. However, growth has remained above the euro area average, supported by a continued recovery in tourism, expanding financial services and information and communication technology activity, and strong investments. The labor markets are tight, with unemployment at a near two-decade low. Headline inflation dipped below 2 percent, but core inflation has been more persistent. Growth is expected to stabilize in 2024 and rise to 3 percent in the medium term. Driven by robust revenue growth, the primary surplus increased further in 2023, contributing to a large decline in public debt. The authorities’ planned neutral fiscal stance in 2024 is appropriate. Further, primary surpluses should be maintained until debt falls comfortably below 60 percent of gross domestic product. Further judicial and labor market reforms are necessary to streamline the business environment and reduce skill mismatches, both of which will support the ongoing diversification of Cyprus’ growth model.
May 24, 2024
Georgia: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper explores drivers of inflation and monetary policy in Georgia. Inflation spiked in Georgia following the pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine. A positive output gap indicates that high demand is generating inflationary pressure in the economy. Estimates suggest tighter monetary policy in 2021 helped significantly lower peak inflation in 2022. One response to uncertainty is for monetary policy makers to act more cautiously – responding less vigorously with monetary policy to shocks. Given the challenges in managing inflation in a highly dollarized, small open-economy prone to large external shocks, it is important to look at the drivers of inflation in Georgia, the monetary policy stance including the natural rate, the transmission mechanism including the impact of dollarization, and the appropriate monetary policy path going forward. Using a range of approaches, IMF establish that monetary policy in Georgia is effective, that it is close to neutral, and that heightened uncertainty supports a gradual policy normalization.
May 24, 2024
Georgia: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Georgia
Description: The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that Georgia’s economic performance remains robust. Growth has moderated from double digits but remains high, inflation is low, and fiscal and financial buffers are healthy. EU candidate status has boosted sentiment, but the global environment remains highly uncertain due to ongoing conflicts and shifting geo-economic patterns. Georgia should continue to strengthen its resilience to adverse shocks by maintaining prudent macroeconomic policies and boost its growth potential by addressing long-standing structural challenges, capitalizing on new economic opportunities, and making decisive progress toward EU accession. Modest further fiscal adjustment is appropriate in the medium term, to build sufficient buffers under the fiscal rule and create room for productive spending. Monetary policy normalization should proceed gradually and cautiously, to ensure core inflation remains close to target. Continued exchange rate flexibility, reserve build-up, and financial sector vigilance are essential to guard against risks, including from capital inflows, virtual assets, and sanctions. Structural reforms are needed to achieve stronger, more inclusive, and job-rich growth.
May 21, 2024
Peru: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Peru
Description: The 2024 Article IV Consultation with Peru discusses that the economy is recovering from consecutive climate-related shocks and social turmoil at the beginning of 2023. Inflation has receded thanks to the central bank’s decisive monetary policy tightening, while the fiscal position and the financial system remain strong. The country is in a period of relative political stability, but lingering political uncertainty is denting the appetite for pressing reforms to boost potential growth. Evolving risks are broadly balanced, and Peru has ample buffers to cope with adverse shocks, although the outlook remains uncertain. In the short term, key domestic risks include an intensification of political uncertainty, social unrest, and climate-related shocks. Key external risks comprise weak trading-partner growth, commodity price volatility, and a sharp tightening of global financial conditions. On the upside, a stronger recovery in confidence could support stronger private consumption and investment growth. Strong buffers including relatively low public debt, abundant international reserves, and access to international capital markets on favorable terms reinforce Peru’s proven macroeconomic resilience.
May 21, 2024
Peru: Selected Issues
Description: The Selected Issues paper focuses on productivity and growth in Peru. Firms have maintained smaller sizes to avoid the application of a profit-sharing legislation, which has resulted in lower productivity. After a decade of high economic growth averaging over 6 percent per year, potential growth has been falling since 2014. A much slower pace of investment and human has driven the decline capital accumulation, but most notably, a decline in total factor productivity growth. In line with the macroeconomic trends, firm-level productivity has worsened, and the decline has been broad-based across the economy. Special corporate tax regimes and labor legislations and regulations have created barriers to productivity growth. To raise productivity, policies will need to focus on reforming regulations that impose excessive costs to formalizing or growing a business. Down the line, introducing greater labor market flexibility would ensure that workers could transition to productive sectors of the economy and reduce labor informality.
May 20, 2024
Guinea-Bissau: Fourth and Fifth Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Requests For Rephasing of Access, Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review
Description: This paper presents Guinea-Bissau’s Fourth and Fifth Reviews under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Requests for Rephasing of Access, Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review. Growth is projected to recover in 2024, but the external environment remains extremely challenging. Inflation is projected to be higher after the suspension of rice subsidies. The near-term policies are geared toward supporting the cashew export campaign, but the risks to the outlook remain tilted toward the downside. The successful implementation of the fiscal consolidation strategy is key to reduce vulnerabilities and bring down the high level of public debt. Mobilizing revenue is essential, particularly through the reduction of tax expenditures, improvements in tax administration and the broadening of the tax base. The government is firmly committed to implementing the policies underpinning the IMF supported program. The authorities’ near-term priority is to maintain fiscal discipline and accelerate structural reforms to strengthen institutions and improve governance.
May 17, 2024
Guinea: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper examines the potential medium and long-term effects of the Simandou iron ore project on Guinea’s economy and income distribution. The paper uses two complementary macroeconomic models. If production began in 2025, the level of real gross domestic product would be around 26 percent by 2030 compared to a baseline scenario without the project. The project would induce a currency appreciation of around 3 percent in 2025 and 2 percent in 2030. It would lead to an increase in employment, but the positive impact on private consumption and inequality could be limited without active policies. Different policy scenarios suggest that spending the potential tax revenues on education and infrastructure results in higher growth and stronger poverty reduction. Results show that the investment of tax revenues in infrastructure and education would foster the positive impact of the project on growth and poverty reduction.
May 17, 2024
Guinea: 2024 Article IV Consultation and Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Guinea
Description: On December 18, 2023, the explosion of a major fuel import and storage facility led to fuel shortages and new urgent financing needs. The blast caused 25 deaths and 457 injured as well as widespread fuel shortages, affecting transportation and economic activity. The relatively strong mining sector is sustaining growth, although growth is expected to decelerate to 4.1 percent in 2024, lower than the 2019-23 average of 5.1 percent. Average inflation is expected to increase to 11 percent in 2024 as fuel shortages pushed up prices. Socio-political tensions persist in the wake of the military coup of September 2021 and the hardship caused by the explosion.