Understanding Residential Real Estate in China

By Mali Chivakul, Waikei R Lam, Xiaoguang Liu, Wojciech Maliszewski, Alfred Schipke

April 28, 2015

Preview Citation

Format: Chicago

Mali Chivakul, Waikei R Lam, Xiaoguang Liu, Wojciech Maliszewski, and Alfred Schipke. Understanding Residential Real Estate in China, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2015) accessed November 21, 2024

Also available in: 中文

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

China’s residential real estate sector plays an important role in the economy and has been a key driver of growth. Since 2014 the sector has softened visibly, reflecting overbuilding across many cities. An orderly adjustment of the sector is welcome. The key questions are how severe the adjustment will be and how long it will last. This paper uses various datasets, an analytical framework to estimate demand and supply conditions, and develops a number of scenarios to determine the oversupply both at the national level and by city tiers. It highlights that the adjustment will be a multiyear process with adverse implications for investment and growth. Smaller cities, as well as those in the Northeast region, face more challenging demand-supply dynamics. The key will be to allow the adjustment to take place, while avoiding a too sharp of an economic slowdown.

Subject: Gross fixed investment, Housing, Income, National accounts, Price indexes, Prices, Real estate prices

Keywords: Bureau data, China, Demand condition, Floor space, GFCF series, Global, Gross fixed investment, Growth, Housing, Housing inventory, Income, Inventory indicator, Investment, Price indexes, Property, Real estate, Real estate investment, Real estate prices, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

25
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2015/084
Stock No:

WPIEA2015084
ISBN:

9781484337066
ISSN:

1018-5941

Notes

Full text is also available in Chinese.

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