World Economic Outlook, October 2024: analytical chapters available now, main chapter on October 22

COMING SOON

Launch of the October 2024 World Economic Outlook

The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a survey of prospects and policies by the IMF staff, usually published twice a year, with updates in between. It presents analyses and projections of the world economy in the near and medium term, which are integral elements of the IMF’s surveillance of economic developments and policies in its member countries and of the global economic system.

RELEASE DATES

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 22, 9 AM ET: Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook
AVAILABLE NOW: Chapter 2: The Great Tightening: Insights from the Recent Inflation Episode
AVAILABLE NOW: Chapter 3: Understanding the Social Acceptability of Structural Reforms

World Economic Outlook, October 2024: Analytical Chapters

Chapter 2: The Great Tightening: Insights from the Recent Inflation Episode

The recent global inflationary experience was characterized by large sectoral demand shifts amid supply disruptions and unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus. Chapter 2 shows that the pass-through of sectoral price pressures to core inflation, and the shifting and steepening of the Phillips curve are essential to understanding the global inflation surge. This is consistent with key sectors hitting their supply bottlenecks as demand rotated across sectors and was boosted by a drawdown of savings. The chapter offers a new monetary policy lesson and confirms an old one. In extreme cases with widespread sectoral supply bottlenecks and strong demand, inflation can surge, but tighter policy can bring it down quickly with limited output costs. Outside of such cases, when supply bottlenecks are confined to specific sectors, conventional policy rules perform well.

Chapter 3: Understanding the Social Acceptability of Structural Reforms

Structural reforms are urgently needed as the world grapples with low growth, demographic shifts, and challenges related to the green and technological transitions. However, reform efforts have waned in recent years amid rising public resistance. Chapter 3 delves into the social acceptability of structural reforms, exploring the drivers of public attitudes and the effectiveness of various strategies to increase support. It finds that resistance often stems from perceptions, misinformation, and trust deficits rather than economic self-interest. The chapter shows that information strategies that raise awareness of the need for reform and correct misperceptions about how policies work can boost support. Effective strategies must be backed by strong institutional frameworks that foster trust and a two-way dialogue among stakeholders and the public. Expanding policymaking toolkits to incorporate citizens’ views can lead to greater social acceptance and successful implementation of reforms.