IMF Staff Position Notes
2009
March 18, 2009
The Global Financial Crisis: Impact on WAEMU Member Countries and Policy Options
Description: Most WAEMU countries are likely to see economic growth deteriorate over the next two years as a result of the global economic crisis, and some WAEMU countries will be more severely affected by the crisis than others. This could have a detrimental effect on efforts to reduce poverty. Deteriorating remittances and commodity export prices are projected to negatively affect the WAEMU countries’ external current account deficit and reserves, although the impact should be cushioned by positive terms-of-trade shocks, such as declining import prices for food and fuel products. These developments should also help lower inflation pressures, bringing WAEMU inflation closer to its historical level of about 2 percent by 2010.
March 11, 2009
Financial Crises and Emerging Market Trade
Description: This chapter discusses various aspects of financial crises and emerging market trade. The current global financial crisis and the sharp reduction in trade flows have raised questions about the extent to which access to capital affects the ability of companies to produce and sell exports and to buy imports. The results presented in this chapter imply that financial conditions play a significant, however, not dominant role in stimulating trade volumes among emerging market countries. Estimates presented in this paper suggest that the combination of zero net private capital flows to emerging markets and a domestic banking crisis could lower import volume growth by between 5 and 6 percent on impact, with a slightly lower effect on export volumes. It is also important to recognize that trade finance is not the only form of credit with implications for trade volumes. Conditions in credit markets more generally, including for working capital and long-term investment financing also have an impact on international trade, including through their impact on industrial production more generally. As such, it is probably sensible for policymakers to support credit flows in general rather than to focus specifically on increasing trade finance.
January 27, 2009
Foreclosure Mitigation Efforts in the United States: Approaches and Challenges
Description: Home foreclosure rates have risen in the United States to the highest levels since the Great Depression. With house prices falling, lending standards tightening, unemployment rising, and interest rate resets in the pipeline, foreclosures are projected to go even higher. While most of the time a foreclosure is a suboptimal resolution of a distressed mortgage, a number of features of the mortgage finance system often prevent loan modifications. This paper reviews the impediments to successful mortgage restructuring and proposes a number of ways to improve the situation. The proposals build on the recognition that the key problem is a combination of negative housing equity and unaffordable debt service, and a successful loan modification scheme should address both issues. Given the key role foreclosures play in the adverse housing market dynamics, and several market failures that the paper identifies, the burden of mortgage debt restructuring should be shared by the taxpayer.