IMF Staff Position Notes

July 27, 2010

Monetary Policy and Bank Risk-Taking

Description: This paper contributes to the current debate on what role financial stability considerations should play in monetary policy decision and how best to integrate macro-prudential and monetary policy frameworks. The paper broadly supports the view that monetary policy easing induces greater risk-taking by banks but also shows that the relationship between real interest rates and banking risk is more complex. Ultimately, it depends on how much skin in the game banks have. The central message of the paper is broadly complementary to those in the recent MCM board paper “Central Banking Lessons from the Crisis.”

May 18, 2010

The Making of Good Supervision: Learning to Say "No"

Description: The quality of financial sector supervision has emerged as a key issue from the financial crisis. While most countries operated broadly under the same regulatory standards, differences emerged in supervisory approaches. The international response to this crisis has focused on the need for more and better regulations (e.g., in areas such as bank capital, liquidity and provisioning) and on developing a framework to address systemic risks, but there has been less discussion of how supervision itself could be strengthened. The IMF’s work in assessing compliance with financial sector standards over the past decade in member countries suggests that while progress is being made in putting regulation in place, work remains to be done in many countries to strengthen supervision. How can this enhanced supervision be achieved? Based on an examination of lessons from the crisis and the findings of these assessments of countries’ compliance with financial standards, the paper identifies the following key elements of good supervision—that it is intrusive, skeptical, proactive, comprehensive, adaptive, and conclusive. To achieve these elements, the “ability” to supervise, which requires appropriate resources, authority, organization and constructive working relationships with other agencies must be complemented by the “will” to act. Supervisors must be willing and empowered to take timely and effective action, to intrude on decision-making, to question common wisdom, and to take unpopular decisions. Developing this “will to act” is a more difficult task and requires that supervisors have a clear and unambiguous mandate, operational independence coupled with accountability, skilled staff, and a relationship with industry that avoids “regulatory capture.” These essential elements of good supervision need to be given as much attention as the regulatory reforms that are being contemplated at both national and international levels. Indeed, only if supervision is strengthened can we hope to effectively deliver on the challenging—but crucial—regulatory reform agenda. For this to happen, society must stand with supervisors as they play their role as naysayers in times of exuberance.

Notes: See Also:Intensity and Effectiveness of SIFI Supervision: Recommendations for enhanced supervision

April 16, 2010

Trade and the Crisis: Protect or Recover

Description: The pace of trade reforms waned from the mid-2000s as protectionist sentiment began to increase. With the onset of the global financial crisis, reform progress not only halted but began to reverse. As we show in this note, new trade restrictions have had—in the limited products they targeted—a strong negative impact on trade. The aggregate impact of new restrictions is modest, at about 0.25 percent of global trade, as most countries have resisted a widespread resort to protectionism. Looking ahead, however, in 2010 sustained high unemployment, uneven growth, and an unwinding of government stimulus measures suggest that protectionist pressures may rise. Gaps in World Trade Organization (WTO) commitments leave ample scope to further restrict trade, so unless all countries vigorously resist protectionism this could threaten the economic recovery and drag down future growth. Continuing and further enhancing the monitoring of all protectionist measures and maintaining the high-level political awareness of the associated macroeconomic risks will help. But the surest way to avoid such a downside scenario is to tighten multilateral trade commitments by completing the WTO Doha Round. This can be viewed as a key part of the exit strategy from the global economic crisis.

February 25, 2010

Petroleum Product Subsidies: Costly, Inequitable, and On the Rise

Description: Petroleum product subsidies have again started to increase with the rebound in international prices. This note reviews recent developments in subsidy levels and argues that reforming the policy framework for setting petroleum product prices is necessary to reduce the fiscal burden of these subsidies and to address climate change. Between 2003 and mid-2008, global consumer subsidies for petroleum products are estimated to have increased more than eightfold, from $57 billion to $490 billion. Although subsidies decreased to $136 billion by mid-2009, they are projected to increase to $237 billion by end-2010 (or nearly 0.3 percent of global GDP). Tax-inclusive subsidies, reflecting sub-optimal taxation of petroleum products, are projected to increase to $733 billion, or 1.0 percent of global GDP. G-20 countries account for over 70 percent of tax-inclusive subsidies. Halving tax-inclusive subsidies could reduce projected fiscal deficits in subsidizing countries by one-sixth and greenhouse emissions by around 15 percent. Subsidy reform strategies should contain measures to mitigate the impact of higher prices on the poorest groups.

Notes: Link to data for this title, (csv file, size is 27 KB)

February 19, 2010

Capital Inflows: The Role of Controls

Description: With the global economy beginning to emerge from the financial crisis, capital is flowing back to emerging market countries (EMEs). These flows, and capital mobility more generally, allow countries with limited savings to attract financing for productive investment projects, foster the diversification of investment risk, promote intertemporal trade, and contribute to the development of financial markets. In this sense, the benefits from a free flow of capital across borders are similar to the benefits from free trade (see Reaping the Benefits of Financial Globalization, IMF Occasional Paper 264, 2008), and imposing restrictions on capital mobility means foregoing, at least in part, these benefits, owing to the distortions and resource misallocation that controls give rise to (see Edwards and Ostry, 1992, for an example of how capital controls interact with other distortions in the economy).

February 12, 2010

Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy

Description: The great moderation lulled macroeconomists and policymakers alike in the belief that we knew how to conduct macroeconomic policy. The crisis clearly forces us to question that assessment. In this paper, we review the main elements of the pre-crisis consensus, we identify where we were wrong and what tenets of the pre-crisis framework still hold, and take a tentative first pass at the contours of a new macroeconomic policy framework.

January 26, 2010

Approaches to Corporate Debt Restructuring in the Wake of Financial Crises

Description: This paper starts from a discussion of the economic case for moderated government intervention in debt restructuring in the nonfinancial corporate sector. It then draws on lessons from past crises to explain three broad approaches that have been applied to corporate debt restructurings in the aftermath of a crisis. From there, it addresses challenges in designing and implementing a comprehensive debt restructuring strategy and draws together some key principles.

December 4, 2009

Climate Policy and the Recovery

Description: Negotiations toward a successor to the Kyoto Protocol on climate change have come to a critical point, and domestic climate policies are being developed, as the world seeks to recover from the deepest economic crisis for decades and looks for new sources of sustainable growth. This position paper considers the challenge posed by these two policy imperatives: how to exit from the crisis while developing an effective response to climate change. Blending the objectives of a sustained recovery and effective climate policies presents both challenges and opportunities. Although there are potential “win-win” spending measures conducive to both, the more fundamental linkages and synergies lie in the broader strategies adopted toward each other. Greater climate resilience can promote macroeconomic stability and alleviate poverty; and carbon pricing, essential for mitigation, can contribute to the strengthening of fiscal positions that is expected to be needed in many countries. There are, nevertheless, also difficult trade-offs to face, notably in the somewhat greater caution now warranted in moving to more aggressive emissions pricing. However, the simple policy guidelines for addressing climate issues remain fundamentally unchanged; the need to deploy a range of regulatory, spending, and emissions pricing measures.

November 11, 2009

The Debate on the International Monetary System

Description: This paper considers options to address concerns related to functioning of the International Monetary System. Despite its relative stability, the current “non-system” has the inherent weaknesses of a setup with a dominant country-issued reserve currency, wherein the reserve issuer runs fiscal and external deficits to meet growing world demand for reserve assets and where there is no ready mechanism forcing surplus or reserve-issuing countries to adjust. The problem has amplified in recent years in line with a sharp rise in the demand for reserves, reflecting in part emerging markets’ tendency to self-insure against costly capital account crises. On the demand side, the paper explores alternative insurance arrangements that could mitigate the precautionary demand for reserves. On the supply side, it assesses a menu of alternative reserve assets that could offer sustained stability and efficiency. Many of the proposals presented would require fundamental changes in the forms and degree of international cooperation, however, may gain realism and practical relevance if more incremental efforts at strengthening the current system fail.

November 4, 2009

Unconventional Choices for Unconventional Times Credit and Quantitative Easing in Advanced Economies

Description: This paper examines the unconventional monetary policy actions undertaken by G-7 central banks and assesses their effectiveness in alleviating financial market pressures and facilitating credit flows to the real economy. Central banks acted nimbly, decisively, and creatively in their response to the deepening of the crisis. They embarked on a number of unconventional policies, some of which had been tried before, while others were new. The scale and scope of unconventional measures have differed substantially across major central banks. Massive asset purchases have boosted the size of the central bank balance sheets the most in the United States and the United Kingdom. However, the Bank of England has relied primarily on the purchases of government bonds, while the Fed has acquired a variety of assets, including commercial paper and mortgage-backed securities and providing financing for acquisition of other asset-backed securities. Central bank interventions, along with government actions, have been broadly successful in stabilizing financial conditions over time.