Country Reports
2023
September 15, 2023
Republic of Latvia: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Latvia
Description: Latvia is facing an inflation shock, slow growth, and geopolitical challenges, while the long-term policy concern is to sustain the income convergence process. Headline inflation has surged over the past year in Latvia, measuring 12.3 percent y/y in May, while core inflation increased to 12.4 percent y/y in May. The new government, which took office in December 2022, will also have to continue to deal with the spillovers in the Baltic region from the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the impact of sanctions imposed on Russia and Belarus, the cost-of-living crisis, energy security, and the expected slowdown in growth. To secure high long-term growth in a low-inflation environment, Latvia needs to address three structural issues: (i) low productivity, (ii) low investment, and (iii) skilled labor shortages.
September 14, 2023
Guinea-Bissau: Second Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, Rephasing of Access, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Guinea-Bissau
Description: Guinea-Bissau is a fragile state facing significant development challenges, including sustaining the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, supply disruptions, and the global economic slowdown. The IMF Board approved the First Review of the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement in May 2023. The reform agenda includes an ambitious fiscal consolidation to support inclusive growth while preserving debt sustainability and structural and governance reforms to strengthen state capacity. The opposition party won an outright majority at the legislative election on June 4, 2023, but a change in the government has not affected the authorities’ program commitments.
September 13, 2023
West Bank and Gaza: Report to the Ad Hoc Liaison Committee
Description: The outlook for the Palestinian economy remains dire, with risks tilted to the downside. Amid a deteriorating security, political and social situation, the recovery is losing momentum and per capita income is projected to decline over the medium term. The fiscal crisis remains unresolved, amid limited prospects for much-needed deep expenditure reforms and resolution of the outstanding fiscal files with Israel. The banking sector remains stable and well-monitored, but early signs of asset quality deterioration are emerging.
September 13, 2023
West Bank and Gaza: Selected Issues
Description: Years of isolation and continuous conflicts have left Gaza’s economic development far behind that of the West Bank. In 2022, per capita income in Gaza was only a quarter of that in the West Bank, and unemployment and poverty rates were much higher. This reflects much lower employment and investment rates as well as considerably lower productivity growth. While Israeli-imposed restrictions on access and movement of labor and goods severely hinder trade outcomes and productive capacity in both West Bank and Gaza, restrictions are far more severe for Gaza. As a result of this Gaza blockade and repeated wars with Israel since 2008, the capital stock is stagnant, and infrastructure is derelict (especially electricity). Analytical work suggests sizeable economic gains from boosting Gaza’s electricity infrastructure. Prospects for declining donor aid risk worsening Gaza’s humanitarian crisis. Under these conditions, Gaza is unlikely to meet the U.N. 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. A major easing of the blockade and financing constraints is necessary to improve prospects, provided the security situation can be assured in parallel.
September 8, 2023
Cyprus: Technical Assistance Report–Strengthening the Governance and Oversight of State-Owned Enterprises
Description: Cyprus’s government has enhanced financial oversight and governance of public entities over the past decade. Several legal and administrative measures have been implemented to support the oversight functions of the Ministry of Finance and introduce elements of good governance and accountability of public entities. As a result, the liabilities of public entities have remained stable and government guarantees have decreased. Looking ahead, the government plans to further strengthen the governance of public entities in line with best international practices. This report provides practical recommendations for improving corporate governance, enhancing accountability practices in public entities, and strengthening their financial oversight.
September 7, 2023
Trinidad and Tobago: Technical Assistance Report–Technical Assistance on Fintech Regulation and Legislation
Description: The impact of fintech in Trinidad and Tobago is currently concentrated in the payments sector. In meeting with firms utilizing fintech, trade bodies, and public authorities, we found that the impact of fintech is not yet broad based and is permeating primarily in relation to e-money and payment service providers (PSP), and more slowly in other areas such as crowdfunding, robo-advice, and crypto assets. While data on the impact of fintech are limited, we use public information, conversations with authorities and market participants, and applications for licensing and outreach for regulatory support as guides, which suggest that fintech remains relatively concentrated.
September 7, 2023
Bosnia and Herzegovina: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bosnia and Herzegovina
Description: After a strong post-pandemic rebound in 2021, growth moderated to 3.9 percent in 2022 (from 7.4 percent in 2021), with Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) beset by negative food and fuel price shocks, the economic slowdown in Europe, and ongoing domestic political tensions. Inflation has been declining from an all-time high of 17.4 percent in October, but it remains high. Most structural reforms remain on hold, and EU candidacy status, granted in December 2022, has yet to create momentum.
September 6, 2023
Saudi Arabia: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Informational Annex
Description: Saudi Arabia’s economy is booming, unemployment is at a record low, the output gap is closed, inflation is contained, and fiscal and external buffers have been rebuilt. The continuation of Vision 2030 reforms has helped advance the country’s economic diversification agenda, including through reduced reliance on oil.
September 5, 2023
Jamaica: First Reviews Under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line and Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility Arrangements-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Jamaica
Description: Jamaica’s commitment to macroeconomic stability and strong policy frameworks continue to allow the country to navigate the difficult global environment. Strong growth continued over the last fiscal year, and sound macroeconomic policies are focused on prioritizing sustainability, supporting growth, and facilitating the convergence of inflation to the midpoint of the central bank’s target band. There are significant risks ahead—from tighter than expected global financial conditions, commodity price volatility, and natural disasters—but the economic outlook remains a positive one.
September 5, 2023
Republic of Lithuania: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Lithuania
Description: The strong post-pandemic recovery led to demand driven inflationary pressures. Supply side bottlenecks and large increases in commodity prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine compounded these pressures and resulted in high and persistent inflation. The negative impact on disposable income, higher interest rates and weaker external demand have led to a deterioration of economic activity. If high inflation becomes entrenched, it will erode competitiveness and slow the successful convergence process. The financial system has ample liquidity and capital buffers to address the weakening economic cycle. Higher interest rates have boosted banks’ profitability, but they also bring significant risks.