Country Reports
2024
April 24, 2024
Republic of Kazakhstan: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note on Climate-Related Risks and Financial Stability
Description: Kazakhstan is vulnerable to transition risk due to the importance of its energy- and emissions-intensive sectors. Domestic and global climate policies would negatively affect Kazakhstan’s economy, its firms, industries, and banks, with heterogenous impacts across industries and banks. Using both micro and macro modeling approaches, the climate risk analysis suggests Kazakhstani banks are exposed to significant transition risk from domestic and, more importantly, global climate policies. The risk is especially higher for carbon intensive sectors, such as fossil fuel extraction, refining, and electricity generation. Banks with large exposure to emissions-intensive sectors experience up to 30 percent additional losses under a disorderly 1.5°C scenario over a 5-to-7-year horizon, compared to the baseline. Banks with a small share of portfolio with emissions-intensives sectors may still experience losses, as climate change mitigation actions affect the economy at large and the financial health of individual consumers, businesses, and industries.
April 22, 2024
Côte d’Ivoire: Request for an Arrangement Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Côte d’Ivoire
Description: Côte d’Ivoire is highly exposed to climate change through rising temperatures and sea levels as well as rain pattern changes. Economic vulnerabilities to climate change are mostly due to the country’s heavy reliance on agriculture, and the concentration of industrial and services activity in coastal areas. Agriculture employs about half of the workforce and contributes about 17 percent of GDP and 10 percent of tax revenues. At the same time, greenhouse gas emission and pollution in urban areas are growing, albeit from a low level.
April 17, 2024
West African Economic and Monetary Union: Selected Issues
Description: Selected Issues
April 17, 2024
West African Economic and Monetary Union: Staff Report on Common Policies for Member Countries-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the West African Economic and Monetary Union
Description: The WAEMU has seen strong growth and rising living standards over the past decade. Economic growth averaged 5.4 percent in 2013-2019 and 5.8 percent in 2021-2023. Policy efforts from regional and national authorities have cushioned the impact of several external and internal shocks, prompting a solid economic recovery since the COVID-19 pandemic, despite increasing security issues. Meanwhile, the Human Development Index has increased from 0.44 in 2013 to 0.48 in 2021.
April 12, 2024
Algeria: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper examines the macroeconomic and fiscal implications of climate change in Algeria. It highlights a range of risks associated with the projected shifts in weather patterns and Algeria’s own hydrocarbon-reliant growth model in the context of the global energy transition. The projected shift in climate patterns over the coming decades poses risks to prosperity, food security, and social development in the region, with most of its population already living under challenging climate conditions. The paper also discusses fiscal policy options to achieve Algeria’s climate goals. An analysis based on the joint IMF-World Bank Climate Policy Assessment Tool suggests that even partial elimination of existing energy subsidies would help Algeria achieve its greenhouse gases emission reduction goals, boost fiscal revenue, encourage the expansion of renewable energy, and generate considerable environmental and public health benefits. Those reforms would create fiscal space for priority budget spending including on targeted social transfers and investment in adaptation to climate change. Strengthening public finance management would enable Algeria to maximize the growth and green dividend of public spending.
April 12, 2024
Algeria: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Algeria
Description: The 2023 Article IV Consultation discusses that the Algerian economy is estimated to have grown by 4.2 percent in 2023, a robust performance owing to a rebound in hydrocarbon production and strong performance in the industry, construction, and service sectors. The near-term outlook is broadly positive, but inflation remains a concern. Medium-term economic prospects hinge on efforts to diversify the economy and the ability to attract private investment, and are subject to several risks. The reforms embodied in the Monetary and Banking Law could be an impetus to strengthen the credit market infrastructure, develop long-term savings products, and advance financial inclusion. Sustained and bold reforms would tap the potential of the private sector as driver of sustained growth and job creation. The implementation of the Investment Law and the enactment of a new Land Law aim at fostering private sector initiative and investment and should be complemented with reforming the state-owned enterprises sector and making product and labor market more flexible.
April 8, 2024
Kingdom of the Netherlands–The Netherlands: Selected Issues
Description: Selected Issues
April 8, 2024
Kingdom of the Netherlands–The Netherlands: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: The economy has cooled, but signs of overheating remain. After two years of strong recovery, growth decelerated in 2023, reflecting the energy shock, tighter financial conditions, and a slowdown in key trading partners, particularly Germany. Still, core inflation remains elevated, reflecting a tight labor market, robust wage growth, and healthy profit margins. Fragmented results in November elections are leading to a prolonged government formation, with possible implications for pro-growth and climate policies.
April 8, 2024
Kingdom of the Netherlands–The Netherlands: Financial System Stability Assessment
Description: The Netherlands FSAP focused on three cross-cutting themes—housing, non-banks, and climate risks—while carrying out a comprehensive review of financial sector oversight. The FSAP reviewed the resilience of the Dutch financial system against a set of conjunctural and structural challenges to the economy: the conjunctural challenges included slowing economic growth amid tighter financial conditions, elevated housing prices, large and interconnected nonbanks with major pension reforms underway, and the shift in securities markets trading from London to Amsterdam since Brexit, which raised Amsterdam to systemic importance for the euro area (EA); and the structural challenges focused on climate issues, including climate physical risks associated with roughly a quarter of the country being below sea level, and nature-related transition risks from an uncertain policy path to bring down nitrogen depositions to contain biodiversity loss and comply with European Union (EU) Directives.
April 2, 2024
Republic of Tajikistan: Request for a Twenty-Two-Month Policy Coordination Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; Debt Sustainability Analysis; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Tajikistan
Description: Tajikistan’s economic performance remains favorable as remittance inflows and public investment continue to support domestic demand but there is uncertainty over the outlook in the context of heightened geopolitical tensions. Public debt is sustainable but sizeable investment needs constrain fiscal space, and the risk of debt distress remains high due to upcoming Eurobond repayments. Adherence to a deficit target of 2.5 percent of GDP is essential to anchor debt sustainability, while advancing reforms to increase space for priority social and development spending. The authorities have requested a twenty-two-month arrangement under the Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) to anchor macroeconomic policies and foster inclusive growth. Staff supports the request for the new arrangement. The Letter of Intent and Program Statement set out policies to support the program’s objectives.