Country Reports
2020
February 11, 2020
Kingdom of Eswatini: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Kingdom of Eswatini
Description: This 2019 Article IV Consultation with the Kingdom of Eswatini highlights that the financial system remains sound, although vulnerabilities are rising. Hence, bank supervision should be intensified, the early intervention regime strengthened, and plans to relax single borrower concentration regulations suspended. The paper explains that the authorities have recently taken some policy actions toward stabilizing the economy. However, reflecting expansionary spending policies and declining Southern African Customs Union revenue, public debt is still rising, domestic arrears have accumulated, and international reserves have fallen below adequate levels. Supply side and governance reforms are needed to support private investment and strengthen competitiveness. Reforms should reduce vulnerabilities to state-capture and other forms of corruption, streamline business regulations and regulatory requirements, reduce high electricity and telecommunications costs, contain wage growth, and address shortages of skilled workers. A credible medium-term fiscal adjustment plan, starting with measures to reduce next year’s fiscal deficit, is needed to bring the economy on a sustainable path. Policies should combine expenditure reductions and revenue increases that enhance long-term growth prospects. Expanding and better targeting cash transfers would help protect the poor.
February 10, 2020
Japan: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Japan
Description: This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Japan highlights that the rapid aging and shrinking of Japan’s population has become central to macroeconomic policies and outcomes. The consultation centered on the macroeconomic effects of Japan’s demographics. Mutually reinforcing policies are needed to lift current and expected inflation, stabilize public debt, and raise potential growth. Underlying growth is expected to remain resilient but will be increasingly challenged by slowing external demand and intensifying demographic headwinds. Growth in domestic demand is being eroded by the weaker external environment. Frontloading of private consumption ahead of the October 2019 consumption tax rate increase appears to have been smaller than in 2014.
February 10, 2020
Japan: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper assesses the relationship between demographic trends and housing prices in Japan. Among various issues in the context of regional disparities, the paper focus on regional differences in population dynamics to try and understand to what extent demographic trends have influenced housing market prices in Japan in the past twenty years. Large cities, notably the Greater Tokyo area, are experiencing net migration inflows, while other regions are experiencing net migration outflows. Due to the durability of housing compared to other forms of investment, the magnitude of house price declines associated with population losses is larger than that of house price increases associated with population gains. These model-based predictions are likely to underestimate the actual fall in house prices associated with future population losses, as expectations of lower housing prices in the future could trigger more population outflows and disposal of houses, especially in rural areas. The paper suggests policy measures to help close regional disparities and avoid potential over-investment by taking account of demographic trends for housing supply.
February 7, 2020
Republic of Kazakhstan: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper conducts a review of taxes on labor in Kazakhstan, which, despite the current relatively low level of collections, have the potential to become an important source of non-oil fiscal revenue. This paper focuses on one group of non-oil taxes, personal income tax and other taxes on labor, and reviews their effective burden, progressivity, and efficiency. These taxes are found to have limited responsiveness to oil-sector fluctuations, and thus help enhance the resilience of public finance to oil shocks. The existing labor tax system is characterized by a low, flat headline rate, limited progressivity except at the lower end of household income distribution due to deduction of the minimum wage, and a relatively high tax burden mainly born by the formal sector. Having a more equitable and efficient labor tax system would involve a targeted strategy for deductions and exemptions, expanding the tax base, and continuing to improve tax design, administration, and collection enforcement.
February 6, 2020
Philippines: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper on the Philippines explores export performance in the context of global trade tensions. Unlike many Asian countries, the Philippines’ exports of goods have remained stable through the ongoing period of global trade tensions. Its low participation in global trade as well as in global value chains relative-to-peers seems to explain why the Philippines has not yet been negatively impacted by the trade tensions. On the other hand, despite its close trade ties with the United States, the Philippines has not benefitted much from trade diversion originated from the US–China bilateral tariffs, unlike Vietnam and Mexico. Philippines’ exports have slightly increased in dollar terms since 2017, but they have remained broadly stable in GDP terms. The Philippines does not appear to have benefitted much from the US–China trade tensions, but it has performed better than many of its peers at the aggregate level. The comparative advantages of the Philippines in terms of exports reside in high tech industries, which constitute its main exports. The Philippines has a revealed comparative advantage in exporting from high technology industries. In sum, the disaggregated trade data evidence suggests that the Philippines was not able to scale-up its exports to the United States as much as Vietnam and Mexico in many high- to medium-tech goods included in the US tariff lists.
February 6, 2020
Philippines: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Philippines highlights that the economic performance remains strong. The discussions focused on macroeconomic policies to keep the economy close to balance under the baseline outlook and risk scenarios; strategies for macroprudential policies to address risks from a potential renewed acceleration in credit growth; and policies and reforms to foster stronger and inclusive growth. Growth regained momentum in the second half of 2019 following a slowdown in the first half. The latter primarily reflected budgetary developments, with some temporary government underspending in the early part of the year. A decisive monetary policy tightening in response to the inflation spike and overheating risks in 2018 and weaker external demand also contributed. The structural reform momentum and infrastructure push remain strong. Gross domestic product growth is projected to rise further in the near term, underpinned by government spending acceleration and the recent monetary policy easing. Risks to the outlook are to the downside, reflecting risks to the global economy from increased trade tensions, shifts in global financial conditions, and natural disasters.
February 3, 2020
Austria: Financial System Stability Assessment-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Austria
Description: This paper presents Austria’s 2019 Financial System Stability Assessment. The Austrian authorities have proactively strengthened the financial stability framework since the previous Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). The FSAP analysis suggests that banks are, in aggregate, resilient to severe macrofinancial shocks, although most banks would make use of capital conservation buffers. Mutual financial cooperation arrangements among banks act as a shock absorber for idiosyncratic shocks, but high financial interlinkages may fuel loss propagation in a systemic event. While a robust regulatory framework and prudential policy actions have lowered financial stability risks, challenges include data and regulatory gaps, resource constraints, high interconnectedness, and exposure to cross-border and money-laundering risks. Authorities should enhance monitoring and oversight related to contagion/spill over risks. This would include enhancing the stress testing framework to consider second round effects and contagion, improving data collection on foreign exposures, nonfinancial corporates and real estate, and strengthening supervision of related party, group-wide, and money-laundering risks. Supervisors should be able to take timely action and correct unsustainable risk taking, including unsustainable lending and business models.
January 30, 2020
South Africa: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper studies the growth-inflation trade-off of monetary policy in South Africa. The combination of low growth and stubbornly high inflation expectations for a protracted period has complicated monetary policy decisions. The IMF staff analysis contributes to the ongoing growth-inflation trade-off discussion in South Africa, concluding that there is limited growth trade-off of monetary policy efforts to anchor inflation expectations at a lower level at present. The findings in this note suggest that the South African Reserve Bank should continue its efforts of anchoring inflation and inflation expectations at a lower level because monetary policy lends limited support to growth dampened by structural issues. During the 2010s, domestic demand growth responded little to monetary policy action. The environment of weak growth, low interest rates, and relatively moderate inflation (expectations) could have muted monetary policy transmission. Ultimately, the constraints to economic growth need to be removed. Meanwhile, inflation expectations continue to respond to monetary policy action albeit to a lesser extent. Monetary policy transmission through demand has weakened––demand growth does not systematically respond to monetary policy action nor does core inflation––but the exchange rate and credibility channels appear to remain operational.
January 30, 2020
South Africa: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for South Africa
Description: This 2019 Article IV Consultation with South Africa discusses that subdued private investment and exports, and increased uncertainty have depressed growth and worsened social indicators. State-owned enterprises’ (SOEs) risks are materializing, triggering government bailouts of Eskom and administrative intervention in other entities. High fiscal deficits have boosted debt. Nonresident investors are shedding equities and local currency bonds but showing appetite for foreign currency sovereign bonds amid supportive global financing conditions. The external position is moderately weaker than implied by fundamentals and desirable policies. Inflation has slowed to around the mid-point of the target band, aided by one-off factors, but inflation expectations are higher. Banks are sound, albeit with pockets of vulnerabilities. In the absence of fiscal space, a gradual and growth-friendly fiscal consolidation and increased spending efficiency are needed. The authorities should establish a credible debt anchor to stabilize debt in the medium term. Given the structural nature of the growth slowdown, the consolidation should be accompanied by reforms that reduce the cost of doing business and boost private investment.
January 29, 2020
Kenya: Technical Assistance Report-Monetary and Financial Statistics Mission (December 3-14, 2018)
Description: This technical assistance report on Kenya reviews the implementation of the recommendations made by the monetary and financial statistics (MFS) mission in January 2017 and the expanded coverage of the standardized report form for other depository corporations (SRF 2SR) including savings and credit cooperatives (SACCOs), microfinance banks (MFBs), and money market funds. The mission found that the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) had made significant progress in collaborating with other financial sector regulatory authorities by forming the Technical Working Group and holding regular meetings. The previous missions recommended that the CBK improve coordination with other regulatory authorities to cooperate and collaborate on the compilation of MFS. With source data available for deposit taking SACCOs and MFBs, the CBK made significant progress in producing initial provisional data for 2SR with the coverage expanded to include those data which were reported to IMF’s Statistics Department for review in August of 2017. In order to support progress in the various work areas, the mission recommended a detailed action plan with the different priority recommendations.