IMF Staff Country Reports

Guatemala: Selected Issues

August 5, 2024

Download PDF More Formats on IMF eLibrary Order a Print Copy
More formats on IMF eLibrary Order a Print Copy

Preview Citation

Format: Chicago

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. "Guatemala: Selected Issues", IMF Staff Country Reports 2024, 267 (2024), accessed November 21, 2024, https://0-doi-org.library.svsu.edu/10.5089/9798400287459.002

Export Citation

  • ProCite
  • RefWorks
  • Reference Manager
  • BibTex
  • Zotero
  • EndNote

Summary

This Selected Issues paper explores effects of social unrest in Guatemala. The paper estimates the effects of social unrest on Guatemala’s economy from 2001 to 2023, using the monthly Reported Social Unrest Index as a measure of social unrest. The estimations of the empirical model suggest no effects of social unrest episodes on the main external sector variables. The empirical evidence suggests little to no impact of social unrest in Guatemala. Contrary to Hadzi-Vaskov et al. (2023), the analysis of the effects of social unrest in Guatemala suggests that the effects on the real, monetary, financial, and external sectors are mild, limited, and temporary if not negligible. On the one hand, the lack of cross-country dimensionality is a limitation of our analysis, but on the other hand, exploiting monthly data allows us to disentangle unrest episode effects at higher frequencies than other papers in the literature. Overall, the results are robust to different specifications; the set of controls is extensive and includes controls for future social unrest shocks autocorrelations. The results suggest that Guatemala is resilient to unrest shocks at business-cycle frequencies, even of considerable magnitude.

Subject: Balance of payments, Education, Gender, Gender inequality, Labor, Labor force participation, Remittances, Women

Keywords: Gender inequality, Global, Government expenditure gap, Guatemala's economy, Investment agenda, Labor force participation, Remittance inflow, Remittances, Social spending efficiency, Women

Publication Details

You May Also Be Interested In...

EBA-Lite 3.0 Model and Methodology

November 18, 2024

Dynamic Development Accounting and Relative Income Traps

November 1, 2024

Mexico: 2024 Article IV Consultation and Review Under the Flexible Credit Line Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Mexico

November 1, 2024

IMF

The Managing Director's Global Policy Agenda, Annual Meetings 2024: Secure A Soft Landing And Break From The Low Growth–High Debt Path

October 24, 2024