IMF Staff Country Reports

Bulgaria: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bulgaria

Publication Date:

June 13, 2024

Electronic Access:

Free Download. Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view this PDF file

Summary:

For two years in 2021–23, a political stalemate hampered policymaking as Bulgaria needed to stir the exit from the pandemic, cope with the global inflation shock and the fallout of Russia’s war in Ukraine, secure its energy supply, implement reforms to unlock EU Funds, and prepare for euro adoption. The government formed in June 2023 prioritized euro and Schengen areas accession, NGEU funds delivery, and judicial reforms. It fell in March 2024, increasing the risk of delays in key policy decisions. Despite the succession of international and domestic shocks, the economy showed resilience and can achieve a soft landing if inflation decelerates towards 2 percent as expected under the baseline. Moreover, longstanding intertwined challenges remain: convergence toward EU average income is lagging peers, investment is low, perception of corruption is large, inequality is high, poverty is widespread, the population is shrinking, and the growth model still relies largely on brown energy.

Series:

Country Report No. 2024/163

Subject:

Expenditure Fiscal policy Fiscal stance Income Inflation International organization Labor Monetary policy National accounts Pension spending Prices Public debt Revenue administration Wages

Frequency:

regular