Jordan: Technical Assistance Report-Forecasting Framework for Currency in Circulation

April 7, 2022

Preview Citation

Format: Chicago

Jordan: Technical Assistance Report-Forecasting Framework for Currency in Circulation, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2022) accessed November 21, 2024

Summary

The currency in circulation forecasting model presently used by the Central Bank of Jordan is aligned with international practices and provides a solid basis for liquidity management. The central bank uses an Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model with many indicator variables to model binary seasonality and to capture special events. The ARIMA model is fitted on daily currency in circulation data using a standard maximum likelihood estimator. This ARIMA approach is aligned with the models traditionally used by central banks in emerging and middle-income countries.

Subject: Central banks, Currency issuance, Economic forecasting, International organization, Monetary base, Monetary policy, Money, Open market operations

Keywords: ARIMA model, Currency issuance, Global, Hierarchy forecasting, IMF team, Monetary base, Moving average, Open market operations, Staff level agreement

Publication Details

Pages:

38
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Country Report No. 2022/101
Stock No:

1JOREA2022002
ISBN:

9798400205972
ISSN:

1934-7685

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