IMF Staff Country Reports

France: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Risk Analysis of Banking and Insurance Sector

Publication Date:

October 29, 2019

Electronic Access:

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Summary:

This technical note presents risk analysis of banking and insurance sector in France. The assessment is based on stress tests, which simulate the health of banks, insurers under severe yet plausible (counterfactual) adverse scenarios. The stress tests reveal that banks and insurers would be resilient against simulated shocks, although some challenges remain. French banks have improved their capitalization and asset quality; however, profitability remains challenged. The report also highlights that profitability is pressured on both the income and expense sides. Banks’ ability to generate higher interest income is constrained by persistently low interest rates, and market businesses including trading activities have contracted in recent years. Growth-at-risk (GaR) analysis shows that the biggest contributing factors to the risk of growth are cost of funding and stock market prices. Financial conditions continue to tighten gradually since mid-2017; though the overall conditions remain accommodative. Risks stemming from loans to households seem to be contained over the short- to medium-term horizon, given relatively strong households’ balance sheets, no evidence of significant misalignment in house prices, social safety nets, and fixed interest rates.

Series:

Country Report No. 2019/322

Subject:

Asset and liability management Banking Financial institutions Financial regulation and supervision Financial sector policy and analysis Insurance Insurance companies Liquidity Liquidity requirements Liquidity risk Stress testing