World Economic Outlook
Crisis and Recovery
April 2009
World Economic and Financial Surveys
©2009 International Monetary Fund
Ordering Information
- Joint Foreword to WEO and Global Financial Stability Report:
- 中文
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The World Economic Outlook (WEO) presents the IMF staff's analysis and projections of economic developments at the global level, in major country groups (classified by region, stage of development, etc.), and in many individual countries. It focuses on major economic policy issues as well as on the analysis of economic developments and prospects. It is usually prepared twice a year, as documentation for meetings of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, and forms the main instrument of the IMF's global surveillance activities. |
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Contents
| Assumptions and Conventions | |||
Preface |
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Joint Foreword to World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Stability Report |
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Executive Summary |
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| Chapter 1. Global Prospects and Policies | |||
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How Did Things Get So Bad, So Fast? Short-Term Prospects Are Precarious Gauging Risks for Deflation Sovereigns under Stress Exploring the Downside Medium-Term Prospects beyond the Crisis Policies to End the Crisis while Paving the Way to Sustained Recovery Appendix 1.1. Commodity Market Developments and Prospects Appendix 1.2. Fan Chart for Global Growth Appendix 1.3. Assumptions behind the Downside Scenario References |
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| Chapter 2. Country and Regional Perspectives | |||
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The United States Is Grappling with the Financial Core of the Crisis Asia Is Struggling to Rebalance Growth from External to Domestic Sources Europe Is Searching for a Coherent Policy Response The CIS Economies Are Suffering a Triple Blow Other Advanced Economies Are Dealing with Adverse Terms-of-Trade Shocks Latin America and the Caribbean Face Growing Pressures Middle Eastern Economies Are Buffering Global Shocks Hard-Won Economic Gains in Africa Are Being Threatened References Supplemental Tables: Key Macroeconomic Projects, by Region (online only) |
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| Chapter 3. From Recession to Recovery: How Soon and How Strong? | |||
| Full Text | Summary | Video | Boxes | Figures | |||
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Business Cycles in the Advanced Economies Does the Cause of a Downturn Affect the Shape of the Cycle? Can Policies Play a Useful Countercyclical Role? Lessons for the Current Recession and Prospects for Recovery Appendix 3.1. Data Sources and Methodologies References |
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| Chapter 4. How Linkages Fuel the Fire: The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging Economies | |||
| Full Text | Summary | Video | Boxes | Figures | |||
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Measuring Financial Stress Links between Advanced and Emerging Economies The Transmission of Financial Stress: An Overall Analysis Lessons from Previous Advanced Economy Banking Crises Implications for the Current Crisis Which Policies Can Help? Appendix 4.1. A Financial Stress Index for Emerging Economies Appendix 4.2. Financial Stress in Emerging Economies: Econometric Analysis References |
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| Annex: IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, April 2009 | |||
| Statistical Appendix | |||
| Assumptions | |||
| What's New | |||
| Data and Conventions | |||
| Classification of Countries | |||
| General Features and Composition of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification | |||
| List of Tables Part A | |||
| Output (Tables A1–A4) | |||
| Inflation (Tables A5–A7) | |||
| Financial Policies (Table A8) | |||
| Foreign Trade (Table A9) | |||
| Current Account Transactions (Tables A10–A12) | |||
| Balance of Payments and External Financing (Tables A13– A15) |
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| Flow of Funds (Table A16) | |||
| Medium–Term Baseline Scenario (Table A17) | |||
| List of Tables Part B | |||
| Output (Tables B1–B2) | |||
| Inflation (Tables B3–B4) | |||
| Financial Policies (Tables B5–B10) | |||
| Foreign Trade (Tables B11–B13) | |||
| Current Account Transactions (Tables B14–B17) | |||
| Balance of Payments and External Financing (Tables B18–B20) | |||
| External Debt and Debt Service (Tables B21–B25) | |||
| Medium-Term Baseline Scenario (Table B26) | |||
| World Economic Outlook Selected Topics | |||
| Boxes | |||
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Chart Chart Chart |
Data Data Data |
1.1 | Global Business Cycles |
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Chart Chart |
Data Data |
1.2 | How Vulnerable Are Nonfinancial Firms? |
| Chart | Data | 1.3 | Assessing Deflation Risks in the G3 Economies |
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Chart Chart Chart |
Data Data Data |
1.4 | Global Imbalances and the Financial Crisis |
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Chart Chart |
Data Data |
1.5 | Will Commodity Prices Rise Again when the Global Economy Recovers? |
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Chart Chart |
Data Data |
2.1 | The Case of Vanishing Household Wealth |
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Chart Chart |
Data Data |
2.2 | Vulnerabilities in Emerging Economies |
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Chart Chart Chart |
Data Data Data |
3.1 | How Similar Is the Current Crisis to the Great Depression? |
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Data Data |
3.2 | Is Credit a Vital Ingredient for Recovery? Evidence from Industry-Level Data |
| 4.1 | Impact of Foreign Bank Ownership during Home-Grown Crises | ||
| Tables | |||
| 1.1 | Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections | ||
| 1.2 | Comparison of Commodity Price Volatility | ||
| 1.3 | Global Oil Demand and Production by Region | ||
| 1.4 | Underlying World Merchandise Trade Flows | ||
| 1.5 | Factors Explaining the Additional Decline in Output Growth for 2009–10 | ||
| 2.1 | Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Unemployment | ||
| 2.2 | Selected Asian Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance | ||
| 2.3 | Advanced Economies: Current Account Positions | ||
| 2.4 | Selected Emerging European Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance | ||
| 2.5 | Selected Commonwealth of Independent States Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance | ||
| 2.6 | Selected Western Hemisphere Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance | ||
| 2.7 | Selected Middle Eastern Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance | ||
| 2.8 | Selected African Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance | ||
| 3.1 | Business Cycles in the Industrial Countries: Summary Statistics | ||
| 3.2 | Financial Crises and Associated Recessions | ||
| 3.3 | Impact of Policies on the Probability of Exiting a Recession | ||
| 3.4 | Impact of Policies on the Strength of Recoveries | ||
| 3.5 | Results from Categorizing Recessions | ||
| 3.6 | Financial Crises and Deregulation in the Mortgage Market | ||
| 3.7 | Impact of Policies on the Strength of Recoveries Using an Alternative Measure of Fiscal Policy | ||
| 4.1 | Episodes of Widespread Financial Stress in Advanced Economies | ||
| 4.2 | The Role of Linkages as Determinants of Comovement | ||
| 4.3 | Emerging Economy Stress: Country-Specific Effects | ||
| 4.4 | Emerging Economy Stress: Determinants of Common Time Trend | ||
| 4.5 | Emerging Economy Stress: Country-Specific Effects and Interactions with Stress in Advanced Economies | ||
| Figures | |||
| Chart | Data | 1.1 | Global Indicators |
| Chart | Data | 1.2 | Developments in Mature Credit Markets |
| Chart | Data | 1.3 | Emerging Market Conditions |
| Chart | Data | 1.4 | Current and Forward-Looking Indicators |
| Chart | Data | 1.5 | Global Inflation |
| Chart | Data | 1.6 | External Developments |
| Chart | Data | 1.7 | Measures of Monetary Policy and Liquidity in Selected Advanced Economies |
| Chart | Data | 1.8 | Global Outlook |
| Chart | Data | 1.9 | Potential Growth and the Output Gap |
| Chart | Data | 1.10 | Risks to World GDP Growth |
| Chart | Data | 1.11 | Housing Developments |
| Chart | Data | 1.12 | Downside Scenario |
| Chart | Data | 1.13 | Net Capital Flows to Emerging and Developing Economies |
| Chart | Data | 1.14 | General Government Fiscal Balances and Public Debt |
| Chart | Data | 1.15 | Global Saving, Investment, and Current Accounts |
| Chart | Data | 1.16 | Alternative Medium-Term Scenarios |
| Chart | Data | 1.17 | Commodity and Petroleum Prices |
| Chart | Data | 1.18 | World Oil Market Developments |
| Chart | Data | 1.19 | Developments in Metal and Energy Markets |
| Chart | Data | 1.20 | Recent Developments in Markets for Major Food Crops |
| Chart | Data | 1.21 | Dispersion of Forecasts and Selected Risk Factors |
| Chart | Data | 1.22 | Balance of Risks Associated with Selected Risk Factors |
| Chart | Data | 2.1 | United States: The Center of the Crisis |
| Chart | Data | 2.2 | Advanced and Emerging Asia: Suffering from the Collapse of Global Trade |
| Chart | Data | 2.3 | Europe: Developing a Common Response |
| Chart | Data | 2.4 | Europe: Subdued Medium-Run Growth Prospects |
| Chart | Data | 2.5 | Commonwealth of Independent States: Struggling with Capital Outflows |
| Chart | Data | 2.6 | Canada, Australia, and New Zealand: Dealing with Terms-of-Trade Shocks |
| Chart | Data | 2.7 | Latin America: Pressures Are Growing |
| Chart | Data | 2.8 | Middle East: Coping with Lower Oil Prices |
| Chart | Data | 2.9 | Africa: Hard-Won Gains at Risk |
| Chart | 3.1 | Business Cycle Peaks and Troughs | |
| Chart | Data | 3.2 | Business Cycles Have Moderated over Time |
| Chart | Data | 3.3 | Temporal Evolution of Recessions by Shock |
| Chart | Data | 3.4 | Average Statistics for Recessions and Recoveries |
| Chart | Data | 3.5 | Expansions in the Run-Up to Recessions Associated with Financial Crises and Other Shocks |
| Chart | Data | 3.6 | House Price-to-Rental Ratios for Recessions Associated with Financial Crises and Other Shocks |
| Chart | Data | 3.7 | Household Saving Rate and Net Lending before and after Business Cycle Peaks |
| Chart | Data | 3.8 | Recessions and Recoveries Associated with Financial Crises and Other Shocks |
| Chart | Data | 3.9 | Highly Synchronized Recessions |
| Chart | Data | 3.10 | Are Highly Synchronized Recessions Different? |
| Chart | Data | 3.11 | Average Policy Response during a Recession |
| Chart | Data | 3.12 | Impact of Policies during Financial Crisis Episodes |
| Chart | Data | 3.13 | Effect of Policy Variables on the Strength of Recovery |
| Chart | Data | 3.14 | Relationship between the Impact of Fiscal Policy on the Strength of Recovery and the Debt-to-GDP Ratio |
| Chart | Data | 3.15 | Economic Indicators around Peaks of Current and Previous Recessions |
| Chart | Data | 4.1 | Indicators of Financial Stress in Emerging Economies |
| Chart | Data | 4.2 | Capital Flows to Emerging Economies |
| Chart | Data | 4.3 | Sudden Stops and Activity |
| Chart | Data | 4.4 | Financial Stress in Advanced Economies |
| Chart | Data | 4.5 | Financial Stress Indices in Emerging Economies |
| Chart | Data | 4.6 | Financial Stress in Emerging and Advanced Economies |
| Chart | 4.7 | The Transmission of Stress: Schematic Depiction of Effects | |
| Chart | Data | 4.8 | Financial Integration of Emerging and Developing Economies |
| Chart | Data | 4.9 | Financial Exposures of Emerging to Advanced Economies |
| Chart | Data | 4.10 | Financial Linkages between Advanced and Emerging Economies |
| Chart | Data | 4.11 | Vulnerability Indicators by Region, 1990–2007 |
| Chart | Data | 4.12 | Comovement in Financial Stress between Emerging and Advanced Economies |
| Chart | Data | 4.13 | Explaining Financial Stress in Emerging Economies |
| Chart | Data | 4.14 | Impact of the Latin American Debt Crisis on Banking Liabilities |
| Chart | Data | 4.15 | Impact of the Japanese Banking Crisis on Bank Lending |
| Chart | Data | 4.16 | Exposure to Bank Lending Liabilities and Twin Deficits in Emerging Economies, 2002–06 |
| Chart | Data | 4.17 | Emerging Economy Stress: Common Time Component and Stress in Advanced Economies |