Middle East and Central Asia
Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia
October 2007
World Economic and Financial Surveys
The Middle East and Central Asia is undergoing a remarkable transformation driven by rapid GDP growth and high oil and non-oil commodity prices. The report presents common economic trends and reviews prospects and policies for the coming year in light of the global economic environment. This latest REO includes boxes treating both regional topics--such as growth in the Maghreb countries; developments in the oil markets; the boom in the GCC countries, and the impact of the recent global credit squeeze on the region--and country-specific reviews, of Kazakhstan, Armenia, Egypt, Pakistan, and the UAE. |
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Contents
| Assumptions and Conventions | ||
| Recent Macroeconomic Developments and Prospects | ||
| Highlights | ||
| Background | ||
| Recent Economic Developments | ||
| Economic Outlook | ||
| World economic outlook | ||
| Outlook for the MCD region | ||
| Policy Issues | ||
| Boxes | ||
| 1. | Maghreb: Growth Performance and Remaining Challenges | |
| 2. | Oil Developments-An Update | |
| 3. | Regional Impact of the 2007 Global Credit Squeeze | |
| 4. | Kazakhstan: A Decade of Economic Progress | |
| 5. | Armenia: The Road to a Successful Transition | |
| 6. | Egypt: An Emerging Success Story | |
| 7. | Pakistan: An Economic Turnaround | |
| 8. | The Boom in the GCC: Is It Sustainable? | |
| 9. | The United Arab Emirates: The Race to Prosperity | |
| Figures | ||
| 1. | Global real GDP growth | |
| 2. | MCD real GDP growth | |
| 3. | External current account balance | |
| 4. | Non-oil commodity prices | |
| 5. | Gross official reserves | |
| 6. | Central government fiscal balance | |
| 7. | Total government debt | |
| 8. | Monetary developments | |
| 9. | Credit to the private sector | |
| 10. | Consumer prices | |
| 11. | Nominal effective exchange rates | |
| 12. | Real effective exchange rates | |
| 13. | Selected stock market indices | |
| 14. | Global outlook | |
| 15. | Brent crude oil prices | |
| Statistical Appendix | ||
| Data and Conventions | ||
| Tables | ||
| 1. | Real GDP Growth | |
| 2. | Nominal GDP | |
| 3. | Oil and Non-Oil Real GDP Growth for Oil Exporters | |
| 4. | Crude Oil Production and Exports | |
| 5. | Consumer Price Inflation | |
| 6. | Broad Money | |
| 7. | Central Government Fiscal Balance | |
| 8. | Central Government Total Revenue Excluding Grants | |
| 9. | Oil Exporters: Central Government Non-Oil Fiscal Balance | |
| 10. | Oil Exporters: Central Government Non-Oil Revenue | |
| 11. | Central Government Total Expenditure and Net Lending | |
| 12. | Total Government Debt | |
| 13. | Exports of Goods and Services | |
| 14. | Imports of Goods and Services | |
| 15. | Current Account Balance (in billions of U.S. dollars) | |
| 16. | Current Account Balance (in percent of GDP) | |
| 17. | Real Effective Exchange Rates | |
| 18. | Gross Official Reserves | |
| 19. | Total Gross Public and Private External Debt | |