Sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook
September 2006
Prepared by the Policy Wing of the IMF African Department, and published twice a year in English and French, this report analyzes economic performance and short-term prospects of the 44 countries covered by the Department. Topics examined in recent volumes include responses to exogenous shocks, growth performance and growth-enhancing policies, the effectiveness of regional trade arrangements, macroeconomic implications of scaled-up aid, financial sector development, and fiscal decentralization. Detailed country data, grouped by oil-exporting and -importing countries and other analytical groupings as well as by subregion, are provided in a statistical appendix, and a list of relevant publications by the African Department is included. |
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Contents
Preface | |
I. | Overview |
External Environment | |
The Outlook for 2006 | |
Prospects for 2007 | |
Implications of Rising Oil Prices | |
MDRI and the MDGs | |
II. | Developments in 2006 |
Economic Developments in Oil Exporters | |
Economic Developments in Oil Importers | |
Official Grants and Debt Relief | |
III. | Prospects for 2007 |
IV. | The Implications of Rising Oil Prices |
Pass-Through of Higher Oil Prices to Domestic Prices, 2003-06 | |
Social Impact of Higher Oil Prices | |
The Impact of Rising Commodity Prices on GDP in Oil Importers—Simulations | |
Statistical Appendix | |
Data and Conventions | |
List of Statistical Tables | |
References | |
Publications of the IMF African Department, 2003-06 | |
Boxes | |
2.1. | Private Capital Flows to Sub-Saharan Africa |
2.2. | Fiscal Transparency Among Oil Producers—Recent Progress |
2.3. | The Growing Importance of South Africa for Sub-Saharan Africa |
2.4. | The Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI) and Poverty-Reducing Spending |
2.5. | Remittances to Sub-Saharan Africa: Their Size and Importance |
4.1. | Simulated Impact of Higher Fuel Prices on GDP |
Tables | |
2.1. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Selected Indicators, 2002-07 |
Figures | |
2.1. | Real GDP Growth and Investment, 2000-06 |
2.2. | Commodity Prices |
2.3. | Real Per Capita GDP Growth, 2000-06 |
2.4. | Inflation, 2000-06 |
2.5. | Real Effective Exchange Rate |
2.6. | Sub-Saharan Africa: Average Rank Difference with Other Regions on Selected Doing Business Indicators |
2.7. | Oil-Exporting Countries: GDP, Investment, and Net Exports, 2000-06 |
2.8. | Oil Exporters: Impact on Current Account of Oil Export Earnings, 2003-05 |
2.9. | Portion of Oil Revenue Spent, 2002-06 |
2.10. | Use of Increased Oil Revenues, 2003-2006 |
2.11. | Capital Expenditure, 2002-06 |
2.12. | Oil-Importing Countries: GDP, Investment and Net Exports, 2000-06 |
2.13. | Real GDP Growth, 2000-06 |
3.1. | Real GDP Growth, 2007 |
4.1. | Pass-Through of Higher Gasoline Prices, 2003-06 |
4.2. | Pass-Through of Higher Gasoline, Kerosene, and Diesel Prices, 2003-06 |
4.3. | Taxation of Gasoline, 2003-06 |
4.4. | Selected SSA Countries: Pretax Prices for Kerosene, 2006 |