Do Asset Price Drops Foreshadow Recessions?

By John C Bluedorn, Jörg Decressin, Marco Terrones

October 2, 2013

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Format: Chicago

John C Bluedorn, Jörg Decressin, and Marco Terrones. Do Asset Price Drops Foreshadow Recessions?, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2013) accessed November 21, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

This paper examines the usefulness of asset prices in predicting recessions in the G-7 countries. It finds that asset price drops are significantly associated with the beginning of a recession in these countries. In particular, the marginal effect of an equity/house price drop on the likelihood of a new recession can be substantial. Equity price drops are, however, larger and are more frequent than house price drops, making them on average more helpful as recession predictors. These findings are robust to the inclusion of the term-spread, uncertainty, and oil prices. Lastly, there is no evidence of significant bias resulting from the rarity of recession starts.

Subject: Asset prices, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Housing prices, Oil prices, Prices, Stock markets, Stocks

Keywords: Asset price, Asset price collapse, Asset prices, Binary dependent variable models, Business cycles, Equity price drop, Financial markets, Frequency distribution, Global, Growth model, House price change, Housing prices, Lag terms, Macroeconomic forecasting, Oil Prices, Price growth, Price movement, Price volatility, Stock markets, Stocks, Term spread, Uncertainty, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

35
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2013/203
Stock No:

WPIEA2013203
ISBN:

9781484353363
ISSN:

1018-5941

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