Brady Bonds and Default Probabilities
Electronic Access:
Free Download. Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view this PDF file
Summary:
This paper computes the default probabilities implicit in the prices of Brady bonds of seven developing countries and examines the factors that determine the high cross-correlation of the probability paths. The term structure of U.S. interest rates and the ratio of long-term foreign debt to GDP, together with a developing market index, explain more than 75 percent of the cross-sectional distribution of the default probabilities. The paper also demonstrates a new way to extract sovereign riskiness, implicit in traded bond prices. This allows the above results to be interpreted as explaining the cross-sectional distribution of sovereign riskiness as well.
Series:
Working Paper No. 1998/016
Subject:
Asset prices Bonds Collateral Financial institutions Financial services Prices Treasury bills and bonds Yield curve
English
Publication Date:
February 1, 1998
ISBN/ISSN:
9781451843378/1018-5941
Stock No:
WPIEA0161998
Pages:
24
Please address any questions about this title to publications@imf.org