Vietnam: Bayesian Estimation of Output Gap
Electronic Access:
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Summary:
The paper constructs a new output gap measure for Vietnam by applying Bayesian methods to a two-equation AS-AD model, while treating the output gap as an unobservable series to be estimated together with other parameters. Model coefficients are easily interpretable, and the output gap series is consistent with a broader analysis of economic developments. Output gaps obtained from the HP detrending are subject to larger revisions than series obtained from a suitably adjusted model, and may be misleading compared to the model-based measure.
Series:
Working Paper No. 2010/149
Subject:
Financial services Foreign exchange Inflation Output gap Potential output Prices Production Real exchange rates Real interest rates
Frequency:
Monthly
English
Publication Date:
June 1, 2010
ISBN/ISSN:
9781455201327/1018-5941
Stock No:
WPIEA2010149
Pages:
25
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