IMF Working Papers

IMF Drawing Programs: Participation Determinants and Forecasting

By Eugenio M Cerutti

July 1, 2007

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Eugenio M Cerutti. IMF Drawing Programs: Participation Determinants and Forecasting, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2007) accessed November 21, 2024
Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

This paper studies the factors that have influenced countries' participation in IMF drawing programs. IMF drawing programs are defined as the period of a Stand-By Arrangement or an Extended Fund Facilities program during which a country borrows from the Fund. Since this definition excludes precautionary arrangements and periods during which the program went off-track, it provides a closer link to the factors that have influenced the evolution of IMF credit outstanding. The analysis uses quarterly data during the period 1982-2005 and focuses on developing, non-PRGF eligible countries. Country-specific variables-net international reserves and GDP growth-together with a global factor-world GDP growth-are found to be among the most significant determinants of countries' participation in IMF drawing programs. The importance of the global factor is not uniform during the period reviewed. The influence of world GDP growth seems to have been significant during the 1980s debt crises but not since the Mexican crisis in 1994. An out-of-sample forecast evaluation of the period 2004-5 reveals that the model has some predictive power.

Subject: Credit, Current account, Emerging and frontier financial markets, Financial crises, Real effective exchange rates

Keywords: IMF access policy, IMF agreement, IMF drawing programs, Variable, WP

Publication Details

  • Pages:

    27

  • Volume:

    ---

  • DOI:

    ---

  • Issue:

    ---

  • Series:

    Working Paper No. 2007/152

  • Stock No:

    WPIEA2007152

  • ISBN:

    9781451867169

  • ISSN:

    1018-5941

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