IMF RESEARCHER

I am an Economist in the Research Department (Commodities Unit) and an adjunct lecturer in the Department of Economics at the University of Maryland, College Park. My research interests are macroeconomics with a focus on energy, commodities, natural resources, and the energy transition. I study the fluctuations and trends in energy, metals and agricultural commodity markets from a long-run perspective. I am also on a one-off assignment to the Guinea team and just completed my first mission to the country. I hold a PhD economics from the University of Bonn and worked for the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas from 2014 to 2021.

Email: MStuermer@imf.org

Personal WebPage: https://sites.google.com/site/mstuermer1/

Fluent In: French, German.

Field of Expertise:

Economic Modeling

Energy and Environmental Economics

International Macroeconomics

IMF Books and Working Papers:

Geoeconomic Fragmentation and Commodity Markets , Working Paper No. 2023/201 , October 03, 2023

Not All Energy Transitions Are Alike: Disentangling the Effects of Demand and Supply-Side Policies on Future Oil Prices , Working Paper No. 2023/160 , August 04, 2023

Economic Consequences of Large Extraction Declines: Lessons for the Green Transition , Working Paper No. 2023/097 , May 08, 2023

Market Size and Supply Disruptions: Sharing the Pain of a Potential Russian Gas Shut-off to the European Union , Working Paper No. 2022/143 , July 19, 2022

Natural Gas in Europe: The Potential Impact of Disruptions to Supply , Working Paper No. 2022/145 , July 19, 2022

Energy Transition Metals , Working Paper No. 2021/243 , October 12, 2021

IMF Occasional Papers, Pamphlets, and Special Issues Papers

“The Power of Prices: How Fast Do Commodity Markets Adjust to Shocks?” (with Christian Bogmans, Andrea Pescatori, Ivan Petrella and Ervin Prifti) IMF-Working Paper, No. 2024/077.

“Key Challenges Faced by Fossil Fuel Exporters During the Energy Transition.” (with Diego Mesa Puyo, Augustus Panton, Tarun Sridhar, Christoph Ungerer, Alice Tianbo Zhang) IMF Staff Climate Note, March 27, 2024.

“Geoeconomic Fragmentation and Commodity Markets.” (with Jorge Alvarez, Mehdi Benatiya Andaloussi, Chiara Maggi, Alexandre Sollaci and Petia Topalova) IMF-Working Paper, No. 2023/201.

“Not All Energy Transitions Are Alike: Disentangling the Effects of Demand and Supply-Side Policies on Future Oil Prices.” (with Lukas Boer and Andrea Pescatori) IMF-Working Paper, No. 2023/160.

Economic Consequences of Large Extraction Declines: Lessons for the Green Transition. (with Rudolfs Bems, Lukas Boehnert, and Andrea Pescatori) IMF-Working Paper, No. 23/97.

Natural Gas in Europe: The Potential Impact of Disruptions to Supply. (with Gabriel Di Bella, Mark J. Flanagan, Karim Forda, Svitlana Maslova, Alex Pienkowski, Frederik G. Toscani) IMF-Working Paper, No. 2022/145.

Market Size and Supply Disruptions: Sharing the Pain of a Potential Russian Gas Shut-off to the European Union. (joint work with Silvia Albrizio, John C. Bluedorn, Christoffer Koch and Andrea Pescatori, all International Monetary Fund) IMF-Working Paper, No. 2022/143.

Energy Transition Metals (with Lukas Boer and Andrea Pescatori), IMF Working Paper, No. 2021/243

iMFdirect Blog Posts

Geoeconomic Fragmentation Threatens Food Security and Clean Energy Transition. (with Jorge Alvarez and Mehdi Benatiya Andaloussi) IMFBlog, October 3, 2023.

How Natural Gas Market Integration Can Help Increase Energy Security.” (with Rachel Brasier and Andrea Pescatori)

How a Russian Natural Gas Cutoff Could Weigh on Europe’s Economies

Four Factors Behind the Metals Price Rally

Surging Energy Prices May Not Ease Until Next Year

Soaring Metal Prices May Delay Energy Transition

Metals Demand from Energy Transition May Top Current Global Supply

F&D articles

A Critical Matter. Fragmentation of Critical Mineral Markets Would Slow the Shift to Clean Energy. (with Christopher Evans and Marika Santoro) Finance and Development, December 3, 2023.

From Abundance to Thirst. (with Andrea Pescatori) Finance and Development, December 2022, pp. 24-27.

Other Published Materials

“IMF World Economic Outlook. Commodity Special Feature. Market Developments and The Power of Prices.” (with Christian Bogmans, Andrea Pescatori and Ervin Prifti) International Monetary Fund, Washington DC, 2024.

IMF World Economic Outlook. Chapter 3: Fragmentation and Commodity Markets: Vulnerabilities and Risks. (with Jorge Alvarez, Mehdi Benatiya Andaloussi, Christopher Evans, Chiara Maggi, Marika Santoro, Alexandre Sollaci and Petia Topalova) International Monetary Fund, Washington DC, 2023

IMF World Economic Outlook: Commodity Special Feature: Market Developments and The Macroeconomic Impact of Declines in Fossil Fuel Extraction. (with Rudolf Bems, Lukas Boehnert and Andrea Pescatori) IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2022, pp. 30-35.

G20 Background Note on Macroeconomic Impact of Energy and Food Insecurity. (with Shekhar Aiyar, Lone Christiansen, Chanpheng Fizzarotti, Carlos van Hombeeck, Kyu Ho Lee, Adil Mohommad, Cedric Okou, Augustus Panton, Irvin Prifti, Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, and Martin Stuermer), International Monetary Fund, Washington DC, 2023.

“Metals for Low Carbon Technology Products.” (with Rachel Brasier, Andrea Pescatori) Box in: “Data for a Greener World: A Guide for Practitioners and Policymakers,” edited by Serkan Arslanalp, Kristina Kostial, and Gabriel Quirós-Romero. IMF Book, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, 2023.

IMF World Economic Outlook: Commodity Special Feature: Market Developments and Food Price Inflation Drivers. (with Christian Bogmans, Andrea Pescatori, Ervin Prifti) IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2022, pp. 37-47.

The Green Energy Transition and its Impact on Metal Mining. (with Rudolfs Bems) Box in: IMF External Sector Report 2022.

United States. Staff Report for the 2022 Article IV Consultations. (with Nigel Chalk, Laila Azoor, Katharina Bergant, Moya Chin, Andrew Hodge, Li Lin, Rui Mano, Andrea Medici, Anke Weber, Mico Mrkaic and Elizabeth van Herveln)

IMF World Economic Outlook: Commodity Special Feature: Market Developments and the Pace of Fossil Fuel Divestment, (with Christian Bogmans, Andrea Pescatori, Ervin Prifti, Nico Valckx) April 2022.

IMF World Economic Outlook: Commodity Market Developments and Forecasts: Clean Energy Transition and Metals: Blessing or Bottleneck?” (with Lucas Boer, Andrea Pescatori and Nico Valckx) October 2021.

Publications in Journals (Refereed)

"Energy Transition Metals: Bottleneck for Net Zero Emissions?" (2024) (with A. Pescatori and L. Boer) Journal of the European Economic Association, 22(1): 200-229.

“Mining in Space Could Spur Sustainable Growth.” (2023) (with Maxwell Fleming, Ian Lange, and Sayeh Shojaenia). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 120(43):1-8.

Sectoral Shocks and the Role of Market Integration: The Case of Natural Gas. (with Silvia Albrizio, John Bluedorn, Christoffer Koch and Andrea Pescatori), American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 113: 43-46.

Non-Renewable Resource Extraction over the Long Term: Empirical Evidence from Global Copper Production. Mineral Economics (special issue in honor of Friedrich-Wilhelm Wellmer), 35: 617-625.

Dry Bulk Shipping and the Evolution of Maritime Transport Costs, 1850-2020 (with David Jacks) (2021) Australian Economic History Review (special issue in honor of Jeffrey Williamson), 61(2): 204-227.

What Drives Commodity Price Booms and Busts? (with David Jacks) (2020) Energy Economics, 85:104035.

150 Years of Boom and Bust: What Drives Mineral Commodity Prices? (2018) Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol. 22:3, pp. 702-717 .

Industrialization and the Demand for Mineral Commodities (2017) Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 76, pp. 16-27.

Publications in Books and Conference Volumes

“An Overview of Geological Resources in Sub-Saharan Africa: Potential and Opportunities for Tax Revenue from the Extractive Sector.” (with P. Buchholz) in: Runge, J. and Shikwati, J. (Eds.): Geological Resources and Good Governance in Sub-Saharan Africa: Holistic Approaches to Transparency and Sustainable Development in the Extractive Sector. Routledge Chapman & Hall, London, 2011.

“Grameen Shakti: An Alternative Approach to Financing Energy in Rural Bangladesh.” (with N. Kebir, D. Philipp, J. Scheffran) in: Finger, M., von Weizsaecker, E.U., and Young, O. (Eds.): Limits to Privatization. When a Solution Becomes a Problem: A Report to the Club of Rome. Earthscan, London, 2005.

Other Published Materials

“Why we need international data sharing on critical minerals.” (with Lukas Boer, Andrea Pescatori and Matthew Wittenstein), World Economic Forum Blog, December 4, 2023.

“Reducing fossil fuel extraction may imply persistent negative effects for fossil fuel-producing economies.” (with Rudolfs Bems, Lukas Boehnert and Andrea Pescatori) VoxEU, July 11, 2023.

Growth and Resources in Space: Pushing the Final Frontier? (with Maxwell Fleming, Ian Lange, and Sayeh Shojaenia). Colorado School of Mines Division of Economics and Business Working Paper, No. 2023-01.

"The potential impact of gas supply disruptions in Europe: An update." (with G. Di Bella, M. Flanagan, K. Foda, A. Pescatori, A. Pienkowski, and F. Toscani ) VoxEU, Oct 3, 2022.

“Natural Gas in Europe: The Potential of Disruptions to Supply.” (with G. Di Bella, M. Flanagan, K. Foda, A. Pescatori, A. Pienkowski, and F. Toscani ) SUERF Policy Brief, No. 412, 2022.

“Central Bankers Need to Take Note of Transition to Clean Energy.” (with S. Howard) Dallas Fed Economics, 2021.

“Falling Oil Prices Drag Down U.S. Business Investment.” (with G. Golding and J. Thompson) Dallas Fed Economics, 2020.

“A Tale of Boom and Bust. What Drives Dry Bulk Freight Rates?” (with D. Jacks) Dallas Fed Economics, 2021.

“Solving a Puzzle: More Nonrenewable Resources Without Higher Prices.” (with S. Howard) Dallas Fed Economics, 2019.

“OPEC Extends Cuts, Opening Door for U.S. to Gain Further Market Share.” (with G. Strickler) Dallas Fed Quarterly Energy Update, 2017.

“Demand Shocks Fuel Commodity Price Booms and Busts.” Dallas Fed Economic Letter, Vol. 12, No. 14, 2017.

“OPEC Reloaded: More Appearance than Substance?” (with R. Brasier) Dallas Fed Quarterly Energy Update, No. 4, 2016.

“Oil Roller Coaster: Prices Rise on Production Outages, Fall with Brexit.” (with N. Dhaliwal) Quarterly Energy Update, No. 2, 2016.

“OPEC Likely to Keep Pumping Even as Some Members Confront Budget Woes.” (with N. Dhaliwal) Southwest Economy, No. 4, 2015.

"Metals May Become the New Oil in Net-Zero Emissions Scenario." (L. Boer, A. Pescatori and Nico Valckx), VoxEU, November 2021.

I am an Economist in the Research Department (Commodities Unit) and an adjunct lecturer in the Department of Economics at the University of Maryland, College Park. My research interests are macroeconomics with a focus on energy, commodities, natural resources, and the energy transition. I study the fluctuations and trends in energy, metals and agricultural commodity markets from a long-run perspective. I am also on a one-off assignment to the Guinea team and just completed my first mission to the country. I hold a PhD economics from the University of Bonn and worked for the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas from 2014 to 2021.

Email: MStuermer@imf.org

Personal WebPage: https://sites.google.com/site/mstuermer1/

Fluent In: French, German.

Field of Expertise:

Economic Modeling

Energy and Environmental Economics

International Macroeconomics

IMF Books and Working Papers:

Geoeconomic Fragmentation and Commodity Markets , Working Paper No. 2023/201 , October 03, 2023

Not All Energy Transitions Are Alike: Disentangling the Effects of Demand and Supply-Side Policies on Future Oil Prices , Working Paper No. 2023/160 , August 04, 2023

Economic Consequences of Large Extraction Declines: Lessons for the Green Transition , Working Paper No. 2023/097 , May 08, 2023

Market Size and Supply Disruptions: Sharing the Pain of a Potential Russian Gas Shut-off to the European Union , Working Paper No. 2022/143 , July 19, 2022

Natural Gas in Europe: The Potential Impact of Disruptions to Supply , Working Paper No. 2022/145 , July 19, 2022

Energy Transition Metals , Working Paper No. 2021/243 , October 12, 2021

IMF Occasional Papers, Pamphlets, and Special Issues Papers

“The Power of Prices: How Fast Do Commodity Markets Adjust to Shocks?” (with Christian Bogmans, Andrea Pescatori, Ivan Petrella and Ervin Prifti) IMF-Working Paper, No. 2024/077.

“Key Challenges Faced by Fossil Fuel Exporters During the Energy Transition.” (with Diego Mesa Puyo, Augustus Panton, Tarun Sridhar, Christoph Ungerer, Alice Tianbo Zhang) IMF Staff Climate Note, March 27, 2024.

“Geoeconomic Fragmentation and Commodity Markets.” (with Jorge Alvarez, Mehdi Benatiya Andaloussi, Chiara Maggi, Alexandre Sollaci and Petia Topalova) IMF-Working Paper, No. 2023/201.

“Not All Energy Transitions Are Alike: Disentangling the Effects of Demand and Supply-Side Policies on Future Oil Prices.” (with Lukas Boer and Andrea Pescatori) IMF-Working Paper, No. 2023/160.

Economic Consequences of Large Extraction Declines: Lessons for the Green Transition. (with Rudolfs Bems, Lukas Boehnert, and Andrea Pescatori) IMF-Working Paper, No. 23/97.

Natural Gas in Europe: The Potential Impact of Disruptions to Supply. (with Gabriel Di Bella, Mark J. Flanagan, Karim Forda, Svitlana Maslova, Alex Pienkowski, Frederik G. Toscani) IMF-Working Paper, No. 2022/145.

Market Size and Supply Disruptions: Sharing the Pain of a Potential Russian Gas Shut-off to the European Union. (joint work with Silvia Albrizio, John C. Bluedorn, Christoffer Koch and Andrea Pescatori, all International Monetary Fund) IMF-Working Paper, No. 2022/143.

Energy Transition Metals (with Lukas Boer and Andrea Pescatori), IMF Working Paper, No. 2021/243

iMFdirect Blog Posts

Geoeconomic Fragmentation Threatens Food Security and Clean Energy Transition. (with Jorge Alvarez and Mehdi Benatiya Andaloussi) IMFBlog, October 3, 2023.

How Natural Gas Market Integration Can Help Increase Energy Security.” (with Rachel Brasier and Andrea Pescatori)

How a Russian Natural Gas Cutoff Could Weigh on Europe’s Economies

Four Factors Behind the Metals Price Rally

Surging Energy Prices May Not Ease Until Next Year

Soaring Metal Prices May Delay Energy Transition

Metals Demand from Energy Transition May Top Current Global Supply

F&D articles

A Critical Matter. Fragmentation of Critical Mineral Markets Would Slow the Shift to Clean Energy. (with Christopher Evans and Marika Santoro) Finance and Development, December 3, 2023.

From Abundance to Thirst. (with Andrea Pescatori) Finance and Development, December 2022, pp. 24-27.

Other Published Materials

“IMF World Economic Outlook. Commodity Special Feature. Market Developments and The Power of Prices.” (with Christian Bogmans, Andrea Pescatori and Ervin Prifti) International Monetary Fund, Washington DC, 2024.

IMF World Economic Outlook. Chapter 3: Fragmentation and Commodity Markets: Vulnerabilities and Risks. (with Jorge Alvarez, Mehdi Benatiya Andaloussi, Christopher Evans, Chiara Maggi, Marika Santoro, Alexandre Sollaci and Petia Topalova) International Monetary Fund, Washington DC, 2023

IMF World Economic Outlook: Commodity Special Feature: Market Developments and The Macroeconomic Impact of Declines in Fossil Fuel Extraction. (with Rudolf Bems, Lukas Boehnert and Andrea Pescatori) IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2022, pp. 30-35.

G20 Background Note on Macroeconomic Impact of Energy and Food Insecurity. (with Shekhar Aiyar, Lone Christiansen, Chanpheng Fizzarotti, Carlos van Hombeeck, Kyu Ho Lee, Adil Mohommad, Cedric Okou, Augustus Panton, Irvin Prifti, Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, and Martin Stuermer), International Monetary Fund, Washington DC, 2023.

“Metals for Low Carbon Technology Products.” (with Rachel Brasier, Andrea Pescatori) Box in: “Data for a Greener World: A Guide for Practitioners and Policymakers,” edited by Serkan Arslanalp, Kristina Kostial, and Gabriel Quirós-Romero. IMF Book, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, 2023.

IMF World Economic Outlook: Commodity Special Feature: Market Developments and Food Price Inflation Drivers. (with Christian Bogmans, Andrea Pescatori, Ervin Prifti) IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2022, pp. 37-47.

The Green Energy Transition and its Impact on Metal Mining. (with Rudolfs Bems) Box in: IMF External Sector Report 2022.

United States. Staff Report for the 2022 Article IV Consultations. (with Nigel Chalk, Laila Azoor, Katharina Bergant, Moya Chin, Andrew Hodge, Li Lin, Rui Mano, Andrea Medici, Anke Weber, Mico Mrkaic and Elizabeth van Herveln)

IMF World Economic Outlook: Commodity Special Feature: Market Developments and the Pace of Fossil Fuel Divestment, (with Christian Bogmans, Andrea Pescatori, Ervin Prifti, Nico Valckx) April 2022.

IMF World Economic Outlook: Commodity Market Developments and Forecasts: Clean Energy Transition and Metals: Blessing or Bottleneck?” (with Lucas Boer, Andrea Pescatori and Nico Valckx) October 2021.

Publications in Journals (Refereed)

"Energy Transition Metals: Bottleneck for Net Zero Emissions?" (2024) (with A. Pescatori and L. Boer) Journal of the European Economic Association, 22(1): 200-229.

“Mining in Space Could Spur Sustainable Growth.” (2023) (with Maxwell Fleming, Ian Lange, and Sayeh Shojaenia). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 120(43):1-8.

Sectoral Shocks and the Role of Market Integration: The Case of Natural Gas. (with Silvia Albrizio, John Bluedorn, Christoffer Koch and Andrea Pescatori), American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 113: 43-46.

Non-Renewable Resource Extraction over the Long Term: Empirical Evidence from Global Copper Production. Mineral Economics (special issue in honor of Friedrich-Wilhelm Wellmer), 35: 617-625.

Dry Bulk Shipping and the Evolution of Maritime Transport Costs, 1850-2020 (with David Jacks) (2021) Australian Economic History Review (special issue in honor of Jeffrey Williamson), 61(2): 204-227.

What Drives Commodity Price Booms and Busts? (with David Jacks) (2020) Energy Economics, 85:104035.

150 Years of Boom and Bust: What Drives Mineral Commodity Prices? (2018) Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol. 22:3, pp. 702-717 .

Industrialization and the Demand for Mineral Commodities (2017) Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 76, pp. 16-27.

Publications in Books and Conference Volumes

“An Overview of Geological Resources in Sub-Saharan Africa: Potential and Opportunities for Tax Revenue from the Extractive Sector.” (with P. Buchholz) in: Runge, J. and Shikwati, J. (Eds.): Geological Resources and Good Governance in Sub-Saharan Africa: Holistic Approaches to Transparency and Sustainable Development in the Extractive Sector. Routledge Chapman & Hall, London, 2011.

“Grameen Shakti: An Alternative Approach to Financing Energy in Rural Bangladesh.” (with N. Kebir, D. Philipp, J. Scheffran) in: Finger, M., von Weizsaecker, E.U., and Young, O. (Eds.): Limits to Privatization. When a Solution Becomes a Problem: A Report to the Club of Rome. Earthscan, London, 2005.

Other Published Materials

“Why we need international data sharing on critical minerals.” (with Lukas Boer, Andrea Pescatori and Matthew Wittenstein), World Economic Forum Blog, December 4, 2023.

“Reducing fossil fuel extraction may imply persistent negative effects for fossil fuel-producing economies.” (with Rudolfs Bems, Lukas Boehnert and Andrea Pescatori) VoxEU, July 11, 2023.

Growth and Resources in Space: Pushing the Final Frontier? (with Maxwell Fleming, Ian Lange, and Sayeh Shojaenia). Colorado School of Mines Division of Economics and Business Working Paper, No. 2023-01.

"The potential impact of gas supply disruptions in Europe: An update." (with G. Di Bella, M. Flanagan, K. Foda, A. Pescatori, A. Pienkowski, and F. Toscani ) VoxEU, Oct 3, 2022.

“Natural Gas in Europe: The Potential of Disruptions to Supply.” (with G. Di Bella, M. Flanagan, K. Foda, A. Pescatori, A. Pienkowski, and F. Toscani ) SUERF Policy Brief, No. 412, 2022.

“Central Bankers Need to Take Note of Transition to Clean Energy.” (with S. Howard) Dallas Fed Economics, 2021.

“Falling Oil Prices Drag Down U.S. Business Investment.” (with G. Golding and J. Thompson) Dallas Fed Economics, 2020.

“A Tale of Boom and Bust. What Drives Dry Bulk Freight Rates?” (with D. Jacks) Dallas Fed Economics, 2021.

“Solving a Puzzle: More Nonrenewable Resources Without Higher Prices.” (with S. Howard) Dallas Fed Economics, 2019.

“OPEC Extends Cuts, Opening Door for U.S. to Gain Further Market Share.” (with G. Strickler) Dallas Fed Quarterly Energy Update, 2017.

“Demand Shocks Fuel Commodity Price Booms and Busts.” Dallas Fed Economic Letter, Vol. 12, No. 14, 2017.

“OPEC Reloaded: More Appearance than Substance?” (with R. Brasier) Dallas Fed Quarterly Energy Update, No. 4, 2016.

“Oil Roller Coaster: Prices Rise on Production Outages, Fall with Brexit.” (with N. Dhaliwal) Quarterly Energy Update, No. 2, 2016.

“OPEC Likely to Keep Pumping Even as Some Members Confront Budget Woes.” (with N. Dhaliwal) Southwest Economy, No. 4, 2015.

"Metals May Become the New Oil in Net-Zero Emissions Scenario." (L. Boer, A. Pescatori and Nico Valckx), VoxEU, November 2021.