Daniel Leigh
Last Updated: July 14, 2022
Daniel Leigh heads the World Economic Studies division in the IMF's Research Department, which produces the World Economic Outlook (WEO). Earlier, he was chief of the Open Economy Macroeconomics Division, which produces the External Sector Report. In previous roles, he was Deputy Division Chief in the Western Hemisphere Department, where he covered the United States and served as Mission Chief for Belize and Suriname. He also served as Assistant to the Director of the Research Department, and covered Gabon and Peru in the Fiscal Affairs Department. His research interests are in international macroeconomics, with a focus on fiscal and monetary policy and forecasting. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Johns Hopkins University and an M.Sc. in Economics from the London School of Economics.
Email: DLEIGH@imf.org
Fluent In: Czech, French, Spanish.
Education:
Ph.D., Economics, Johns Hopkins University, 1999-2004
M.Sc., Economics, London School of Economics, 1998-1999
B.A. (First Class Honours), Economics, University of Manchester, 1994-1998
Previous Experience:
International Monetary Fund, Research Department: Senior Economist (World Economic Studies division), 2009-2012.
International Monetary Fund, Fiscal Affairs Department: Economist (Fiscal Policy division), 2006-2009; Economist Program (Fiscal Policy division), 2005-2006.
International Monetary Fund, European Department: Economist Program (Hungary and Lithuania country assignments), 2004-2005.
International Monetary Fund. European Department: Summer Intern (2002). Estimated effect of exchange rate fluctuations on inflation in Turkey and developed inflation forecasting model.
Inter-American Development Bank. Research Department: Summer Intern (2001). Investigated effect of currency union on trade with a focus on EMU.
Field of Expertise:
Public Finance
Open Economy Macroeconomics
Monetary Policy
Labor Economics
IMF Books and Working Papers:
U.S. Investment Since the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 , Working Paper No. 19/120 , May 31, 2019
Hysteresis in Labor Markets? Evidence from Professional Long-Term Forecasts , Working Paper No. 19/114 , May 23, 2019
Is the Cycle the Trend? Evidence From the Views of International Forecasters , Working Paper No. 18/163 , July 13, 2018
Global Market Power and its Macroeconomic Implications , Working Paper No. 18/137 , June 15, 2018
The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation in Emerging Economies: Evidence from Latin America , Working Paper No. 18/142 , June 13, 2018
A New Action-based Dataset of Fiscal Consolidation in Latin America and the Caribbean , Working Paper No. 18/94 , April 26, 2018
Wage Moderation in Crises : Policy Considerations and Applications to the Euro Area , Staff Discussion Notes No. 15/22 , November 17, 2015
The Distributional Effects of Fiscal Consolidation , Working Paper No. 13/151 , June 21, 2013
Okun's Law : Fit at 50? , Working Paper No. 13/10 , January 14, 2013
Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers , Working Paper No. 13/1 , January 03, 2013
Expansionary Austerity New International Evidence , Working Paper No. 11/158 , July 01, 2011
A New Action-Based Dataset of Fiscal Consolidation , Working Paper No. 11/128 , June 01, 2011
To Starve or not to Starve the Beast? , Working Paper No. 10/199 , September 01, 2010
What’s the Damage? Medium-term Output Dynamics After Banking Crises , Working Paper No. 09/245 , November 01, 2009
Monetary Policy and the Lost Decade: Lessons from Japan , Working Paper No. 09/232 , October 01, 2009
The Second Transition: Eastern Europe in Perspective , Working Paper No. 09/43 , March 01, 2009
Fiscal and Monetary Policy During Downturns: Evidence from the G7 , Working Paper No. 09/50 , March 01, 2009
Monetary and Fiscal Policy Options for Dealing with External Shocks: Insights from the GIMF for Colombia , Working Paper No. 09/59 , March 01, 2009
Achieving a Soft Landing: The Role of Fiscal Policy , Working Paper No. 08/69 , March 01, 2008
Alternative Fiscal Rules for Norway , Working Paper No. 07/241 , October 01, 2007
Ensuring Fiscal Sustainability in G-7 Countries , Working Paper No. 07/187 , July 01, 2007
Fiscal Adjustments: Determinants and Macroeconomic Consequences , Working Paper No. 07/178 , July 01, 2007
Catch-Up Growth, Habits, Oil Depletion, and Fiscal Policy: Lessons from the Republic of Congo , Working Paper No. 07/80 , April 01, 2007
International Finance and Income Convergence: Europe is Different , Working Paper No. 07/64 , March 01, 2007
Growth in the Central and Eastern European Countries of the European Union , Occasional Paper No. 252 , January 03, 2007
Fuel Price Subsidies in Gabon: Fiscal Cost and Distributional Impact , Working Paper No. 06/243 , October 01, 2006
Natural-Resource Depletion, Habit Formation, and Sustainable Fiscal Policy: Lessons from Gabon , Working Paper No. 06/193 , August 01, 2006
Estimating the Implicit Inflation Target: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy , Working Paper No. 05/77 , April 01, 2005
Leading Indicators of Growth and Inflation in Turkey , Working Paper No. 02/231 , December 01, 2002
Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkey , Working Paper No. 02/204 , November 01, 2002
IMF Country Reports
IMF Occasional Papers, Pamphlets, and Special Issues Papers
Publications in Journals (Refereed)
"Expansionary Austerity? International Evidence" (with A.Pescatori and J.Guajardo). Journal of the European Economic Association (forthcoming).
“Painful Medicine” (with L.Ball and P.Loungani). Finance&Development (September 2011): 20-23.
“The Second Transition” (with S.Fabrizio, and A.Mody). European Economy 366 (March 2009).
Daniel Leigh heads the World Economic Studies division in the IMF's Research Department, which produces the World Economic Outlook (WEO). Earlier, he was chief of the Open Economy Macroeconomics Division, which produces the External Sector Report. In previous roles, he was Deputy Division Chief in the Western Hemisphere Department, where he covered the United States and served as Mission Chief for Belize and Suriname. He also served as Assistant to the Director of the Research Department, and covered Gabon and Peru in the Fiscal Affairs Department. His research interests are in international macroeconomics, with a focus on fiscal and monetary policy and forecasting. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Johns Hopkins University and an M.Sc. in Economics from the London School of Economics.
Email: DLEIGH@imf.org
Fluent In: Czech, French, Spanish.
Education:
Ph.D., Economics, Johns Hopkins University, 1999-2004
M.Sc., Economics, London School of Economics, 1998-1999
B.A. (First Class Honours), Economics, University of Manchester, 1994-1998
Previous Experience:
International Monetary Fund, Research Department: Senior Economist (World Economic Studies division), 2009-2012.
International Monetary Fund, Fiscal Affairs Department: Economist (Fiscal Policy division), 2006-2009; Economist Program (Fiscal Policy division), 2005-2006.
International Monetary Fund, European Department: Economist Program (Hungary and Lithuania country assignments), 2004-2005.
International Monetary Fund. European Department: Summer Intern (2002). Estimated effect of exchange rate fluctuations on inflation in Turkey and developed inflation forecasting model.
Inter-American Development Bank. Research Department: Summer Intern (2001). Investigated effect of currency union on trade with a focus on EMU.
Field of Expertise:
Public Finance
Open Economy Macroeconomics
Monetary Policy
Labor Economics
IMF Books and Working Papers:
U.S. Investment Since the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 , Working Paper No. 19/120 , May 31, 2019
Hysteresis in Labor Markets? Evidence from Professional Long-Term Forecasts , Working Paper No. 19/114 , May 23, 2019
Is the Cycle the Trend? Evidence From the Views of International Forecasters , Working Paper No. 18/163 , July 13, 2018
Global Market Power and its Macroeconomic Implications , Working Paper No. 18/137 , June 15, 2018
The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation in Emerging Economies: Evidence from Latin America , Working Paper No. 18/142 , June 13, 2018
A New Action-based Dataset of Fiscal Consolidation in Latin America and the Caribbean , Working Paper No. 18/94 , April 26, 2018
Wage Moderation in Crises : Policy Considerations and Applications to the Euro Area , Staff Discussion Notes No. 15/22 , November 17, 2015
The Distributional Effects of Fiscal Consolidation , Working Paper No. 13/151 , June 21, 2013
Okun's Law : Fit at 50? , Working Paper No. 13/10 , January 14, 2013
Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers , Working Paper No. 13/1 , January 03, 2013
Expansionary Austerity New International Evidence , Working Paper No. 11/158 , July 01, 2011
A New Action-Based Dataset of Fiscal Consolidation , Working Paper No. 11/128 , June 01, 2011
To Starve or not to Starve the Beast? , Working Paper No. 10/199 , September 01, 2010
What’s the Damage? Medium-term Output Dynamics After Banking Crises , Working Paper No. 09/245 , November 01, 2009
Monetary Policy and the Lost Decade: Lessons from Japan , Working Paper No. 09/232 , October 01, 2009
The Second Transition: Eastern Europe in Perspective , Working Paper No. 09/43 , March 01, 2009
Fiscal and Monetary Policy During Downturns: Evidence from the G7 , Working Paper No. 09/50 , March 01, 2009
Monetary and Fiscal Policy Options for Dealing with External Shocks: Insights from the GIMF for Colombia , Working Paper No. 09/59 , March 01, 2009
Achieving a Soft Landing: The Role of Fiscal Policy , Working Paper No. 08/69 , March 01, 2008
Alternative Fiscal Rules for Norway , Working Paper No. 07/241 , October 01, 2007
Ensuring Fiscal Sustainability in G-7 Countries , Working Paper No. 07/187 , July 01, 2007
Fiscal Adjustments: Determinants and Macroeconomic Consequences , Working Paper No. 07/178 , July 01, 2007
Catch-Up Growth, Habits, Oil Depletion, and Fiscal Policy: Lessons from the Republic of Congo , Working Paper No. 07/80 , April 01, 2007
International Finance and Income Convergence: Europe is Different , Working Paper No. 07/64 , March 01, 2007
Growth in the Central and Eastern European Countries of the European Union , Occasional Paper No. 252 , January 03, 2007
Fuel Price Subsidies in Gabon: Fiscal Cost and Distributional Impact , Working Paper No. 06/243 , October 01, 2006
Natural-Resource Depletion, Habit Formation, and Sustainable Fiscal Policy: Lessons from Gabon , Working Paper No. 06/193 , August 01, 2006
Estimating the Implicit Inflation Target: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy , Working Paper No. 05/77 , April 01, 2005
Leading Indicators of Growth and Inflation in Turkey , Working Paper No. 02/231 , December 01, 2002
Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkey , Working Paper No. 02/204 , November 01, 2002
IMF Country Reports
IMF Occasional Papers, Pamphlets, and Special Issues Papers
Publications in Journals (Refereed)
"Expansionary Austerity? International Evidence" (with A.Pescatori and J.Guajardo). Journal of the European Economic Association (forthcoming).
“Painful Medicine” (with L.Ball and P.Loungani). Finance&Development (September 2011): 20-23.
“The Second Transition” (with S.Fabrizio, and A.Mody). European Economy 366 (March 2009).