Deniz Igan

Last Updated: November 04, 2024

Deniz Igan is the Chief of the IMF Research Department’s World Economic Studies Division. Between 2021 and 2024, she was the Head of Macroeconomic Analysis at the Bank for International Settlements. Prior to that, she held various positions at the IMF, including as co-editor of the IMF Research Perspectives, an advisor to the editor for the IMF's Finance & Development magazine, and a recurring contributor to the Global Financial Stability Report, the World Economic Outlook, and the IMF-FSB Early Warning Exercise. Her research interests include macro-financial linkages, financial crises, real estate markets, and the political economy of financial regulation. Her work has been published in academic journals including policy-oriented volumes and presented widely in conferences and workshops. Deniz is a CEPR Research Fellow, an EUI Young Policy Leaders Fellow, an expert panelist at Zillow’s House Price Expectations Survey, and a recipient of the IMF Research Award for her innovative work on risks in real estate markets for the Early Warning Exercise and of best paper awards from the Midwest Finance Association and the American Real Estate Society.

Personal WebPage: https://ideas.repec.org/e/pig12.html

Fluent In: Turkish.

Education:

Princeton University, Ph.D.

Princeton University, M.A.

Bilkent University, B.A.


Field of Expertise:

Macro-Financial Issues

IMF Books and Working Papers:

Pricing Protest: The Response of Financial Markets to Social Unrest , Working Paper No. 2021/079 , March 19, 2021

Zombies on the Brink: Evidence from Japan on the Reversal of Monetary Policy Effectiveness , Working Paper No. 2021/044 , February 19, 2021

Government Intervention and Bank Market Power: Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis for the COVID-19 Crisis , Working Paper No. 2020/275 , December 11, 2020

Tracking the Economic Impact of COVID-19 and Mitigation Policies in Europe and the United States , Working Paper No. 20/125 , July 10, 2020

Does Going Tough on Banks Make the Going Get Tough? Bank Liquidity Regulations, Capital Requirements, and Sectoral Activity , Working Paper No. 20/103 , June 19, 2020

Discerning Good from Bad Credit Booms : The Role of Construction , Staff Discussion Notes No. 20/02 , February 12, 2020

Bank Lobbying: Regulatory Capture and Beyond , Working Paper No. 19/171 , August 09, 2019

Doing More for Less? New Evidence on Lobbying and Government Contracts , Working Paper No. 19/172 , August 09, 2019

The Long Shadow of the Global Financial Crisis: Public Interventions in the Financial Sector , Working Paper No. 19/164 , July 30, 2019

How Do Regulations of Entry and Credit Access Relate to Industry Competition? International Evidence , Working Paper No. 18/84 , April 06, 2018

Trade-offs in Bank Resolution , February 09, 2018

Winning Connections? Special Interests and the Sale of Failed Banks , Working Paper No. 17/262 , November 22, 2017

March Madness in Wall Street : (What) Does the Market Learn from Stress Tests? , Working Paper No. 15/271 , December 23, 2015

Delegated Portfolio Management, Benchmarking, and the Effects on Financial Markets , Working Paper No. 15/198 , September 08, 2015

Capital Inflows, Credit Growth, and Financial Systems , Working Paper No. 15/193 , August 19, 2015

The Macroeconomic Relevance of Credit Flows : An Exploration of U.S. Data , Working Paper No. 15/143 , June 30, 2015

Monetary Policy and Balance Sheets , Working Paper No. 13/158 , July 03, 2013

Fiscal Consolidation and the Cost of Credit : Evidence from Syndicated Loans , Working Paper No. 13/36 , February 01, 2013

Global Housing Cycles , Working Paper No. 12/217 , August 01, 2012

Policies for Macrofinancial Stability: How to Deal with Credit Booms , Staff Discussion Notes No. 12/6 , June 07, 2012

Policies for Macrofinancial Stability: How to Deal with Credit Booms , Staff Discussion Notes No. 12/6 , June 07, 2012

Credit Growth and Bank Soundness : Fast and Furious? , Working Paper No. 11/278 , December 01, 2011

Do Loan-To-Value and Debt-To-Income Limits Work? Evidence From Korea , Working Paper No. 11/297 , December 01, 2011

How to Deal with Real Estate Booms : Lessons From Country Experiences , Working Paper No. 11/91 , April 01, 2011

Policies for Macrofinancial Stability: Options to Deal with Real Estate Booms , Staff Discussion Notes No. 11/2 , March 01, 2011

Bank Lending in Turkey : Effects of Monetary and Fiscal Policies , Working Paper No. 10/233 , October 01, 2010

Lessons and Policy Implications from the Global Financial Crisis , Working Paper No. 10/44 , February 01, 2010

A Fistful of Dollars: Lobbying and the Financial Crisis , Working Paper No. 09/287 , December 01, 2009

Three Cycles: Housing, Credit, and Real Activity , Working Paper No. 09/231 , October 01, 2009

Exposure to Real Estate Losses: Evidence from the US Banks , Working Paper No. 09/79 , April 01, 2009

Are Weak Banks Leading Credit Booms? Evidence from Emerging Europe , Working Paper No. 08/219 , September 01, 2008

Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Market , Working Paper No. 08/106 , April 01, 2008

The Dynamics of Product Quality and International Competitiveness , Working Paper No. 07/97 , April 01, 2007

IMF Survey Articles

Global House Prices Still Showing Down Trend (with Prakash Loungani), 2012, IMF Survey, September 17

Bouncing Between Floors? Globally, House Prices are Up and Down (with Prakash Loungani), 2010, IMF Survey, October 8

Asian Real Estate Markets: On Bubble Alert? (with Hui Jin), 2010, IMF Survey, June 2

Managing Housing Sector Boom-Bust Cycles (with Roberto Cardarelli and Alessandro Rebucci), 2008, IMF Survey, April 3

Banking Risks Rise in Eastern Europe (with Natalia Tamirisa), 2007, IMF Survey, September 25

Staying on Top of the Game (with Stefania Fabrizio and Ashoka Mody), 2007, IMF Survey, June 13

iMFdirect Blog Posts

Construction Activity Can Signal When Credit Booms Go Wrong, February 12, 2020

How To Deal With Failed Banks, July 3, 2018

Going with the Flow: Benefits of Capital Inflows for Emerging Markets, December 6, 2016

Top Five Policy Priorities to Brighten America’s Economic Future, November 5, 2014

More Jobs That Pay Decent Wages: How To Fight Poverty In The United States, August 28, 2014

U.S. Fiscal Policy: A Tough Balancing Act, July 30, 2013

F&D articles

Making Friends (with Prachi Mishra), 2011, Finance & Development, June, Vol. 48, No. 2

Selected Issue

Housing Finance, 2015, United States: 2015 Article IV Consultation IMF Country Report No. 15/169

Fiscal Risks and Borrowing Costs in State and Local Governments (with Madelyn Estrada and Dinah Knight), 2014, in United States: 2014 Article IV Consultation IMF Country Report No. 14/222

Risky Business: The Uncertainty in U.S. Health Care Spending (with Kenichiro Kashiwase and Baoping Shang), 2013, in United States: 2013 Article IV Consultation IMF Country Report No. 13/237

Dutch Housing Markets: What Went Up Will Come Down?, 2010, Analytical Note 1 in Kingdom of the Netherlands – Netherlands: 2009 Article IV Consultation IMF Country Report No. 10/34

Macro-Financial Linkages in the Netherlands, 2010, Analytical Note 2 in Kingdom of the Netherlands – Netherlands: 2009 Article IV Consultation IMF Country Report No. 10/34

Emigration from Lithuania: Determinants and Implications, 2006, in Republic of Lithuania: Selected Issues, SM/06/163

Export Structure and Credit Growth (with Ashoka Mody, Stefania Fabrizio, and Natalia Tamirisa), 2006, Czech Republic, Republic of Estonia, Hungary, Republic of Latvia, Republic of Lithuania, Republic of Poland, Slovak Republic, and Republic of Slovenia, IMF Country Report No. 06/414

Other Published Materials

House Prices and Consumer Price Inflation (with Nina Biljanovska and Chenxu Fu), 2021, Box 1.1 in World Economic Outlook: Recovery During a Pandemic.

The Impact of COVID-19 on Inflation: Potential Drivers and Dynamics (with Ehsan Ebrahimy and Maria Soledad Martinez Peria), 2020, IMF COVID-19 Special Series Notes, September 10.

The Disconnect between Financial Markets and the Real Economy (with Divya Kirti and Maria Soledad Martinez Peria), 2020, IMF COVID-19 Special Series Notes, August 26.

The Role of Financial Sector Repair in the Speed of the Recovery, 2018, Box 2.3 in World Economic Outlook: Challenges to Steady Growth.

Growing with Flows: Evidence from Industry-Level Data, 2017, Box 2.2 in World Economic Outlook: Gaining Momentum?

Dealing with Household Debt (with Daniel Leigh, John Simon, and Petia Topalova), 2012, Chapter 3 in World Economic Outlook: Growth Resuming, Dangers Remain

Housing Finance and Financial Stability—Back to Basics? (with Ann-Margret Westin, Dawn Yi Lin Chew, Francesco Columba, Alessandro Gullo, Andreas Jobst, John Kiff, Andrea Maechler, Srobona Mitra, and Erlend Nier), 2011, Chapter 3 in Global Financial Stability Report: Durable Financial Stability: Getting There from Here

Dismal Prospects for the Real Estate Sector (with Prakash Loungani), 2010, Box 1.2 in World Economic Outlook: Recovery, Risk, and Rebalancing

Asian Residential Real Estate Markets: Bubble Trouble? (with Hui Jin), 2010, Box 1.3 in Global Financial Stability Report: Meeting New Challenges to Stability and Building a Safer System

Risks from Real Estate Markets (with Prakash Loungani), 2009, Box 1.4 in World Economic Outlook: Sustaining the Recovery

Seven Questions about Political Influence and the Financial Crisis (with Prachi Mishra and Thierry Tressel), 2009, IMF Research Bulletin, September

The Changing Housing Cycle and the Implications for Monetary Policy (with Roberto Cardarelli and Alessandro Rebucci), 2008, in World Economic Outlook: Housing and the Business Cycle

Publications in Journals (Refereed)

Pricing Protest: The Response of Financial Markets to Social Unrest (with Philip Barrett, Mariia Bondar, Sophia Chen, and Mali Chivakul), 2024, Review of Finance, vol. 28, pp. 1419–1450.

The Lion’s Share: Evidence from Federal Contracts on the Value of Political Connections (with Senay Agca), 2023, Journal of Law and Economics, vol. 66, pp. 609–638.

A Shot in the Arm: Economic Support Packages and Firm Performance during COVID-19 (with Ali Mirzaei and Tomoe Monroe), 2023, Journal of Corporate Finance, vol. 78, pp. 102340.

Does Macroprudential Policy Alleviate the Adverse Impact of COVID-19 on the Resilience of Banks? (with Ali Mirzaei and Tomoe Monroe), 2023, Journal of Banking and Finance, vol. 147, pp. 106419.

Winning Connections: Special Interests and the Sale of Failed Banks (with Thomas Lambert, Wolf Wagner, and Eden Zhang), 2022, Journal of Banking and Finance, vol. 140, pp. 106496.

The Long Shadow of the Global Financial Crisis: Public Interventions in the Financial Sector (with Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, Paolo Mauro, Hala Moussawi, Alexander Tieman, and Aleksandra Zdzienicka), 2022, IMF Economic Review, vol. 70 (2), pp. 212–251.

Government intervention and bank markups: Lessons from the global financial crisis for the COVID-19 crisis (with Brandon Tan, Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, Nicola Pierri, and Andrea F. Presbitero), 2021, Journal of Banking and Finance, vol. 133, pp. 106320.

The Real Effects of Capital Inflows in Emerging Markets (with Ali Kutan and Ali Mirzaei), 2020, Journal of Banking and Finance, vol. 119, pp. 105993.

Does Going Tough on Banks Make the Going Get Tough? Bank Liquidity Regulations, Capital Requirements, and Sectoral Activity (with Ali Mirzaei), 2020, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, vol. 177, pp. 688–726.

Tracking the Economic Impact of COVID-19 and Mitigation Policies in Europe and the United States (with Sophia Chen, Nicola Pierri, and Andrea Presbitero), 2020, COVID Economics, vol. 36, pp. 1–24.

March Madness in Wall Street: (What) Does the Market Learn from Stress Tests? (with Marcelo Fernandes and Marcelo Pinheiro), 2020, Journal of Banking and Finance, Volume 112, pp. 105250.

Fiscal Consolidation and the Cost of Credit (with Senay Agca), 2019, Journal of International Economics, Volume 120, pp. 84-108.

Capital Inflows, Credit Growth, and Financial Systems (with Zhibo Tan), 2017, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Volume 53 (12), pp. 2649–2671.

The Macroeconomic Relevance of Credit Flows: An Exploration of U.S. Data (with Alexander Herman and Juan Sole), 2017, Journal of Financial Stability, Volume 32, pp. 124-141.

Monetary Policy and Balance Sheets (with Francisco Nadal de Simone, Alain Kabundi, and Natalia Tamirisa), 2017, Journal of Policy Modeling 39 (1), 169–184.

Home Truths: Promises and Challenges in Linking Mortgages and Political Influence, 2016, Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences 2 (7), 69–86.

Delegated Portfolio Management, Benchmarking, and the Effects on Financial Markets (with Marcelo Pinheiro), 2016, Journal of Financial Transformation 43, 144–157.

Credit Booms and Macrofinancial Stability (with Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, Luc Laeven, and Hui Tong), 2016, Economic Policy 31 (86), 299–355.

A Study of a Market Anomaly: “White Men Can’t Jump,” But Would You Bet On It?” (with Marcelo Pinheiro and John Smith), 2015, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 113, 13-25.

Wall Street, Capitol Hill, and K Street: Political Influence and Financial Regulation (with Prachi Mishra), 2014, Journal of Law and Economics 57 (4), 1063-1084.

How to Deal with Real Estate Booms: Lessons from Country Experiences (with Christopher Crowe, Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, and Pau Rabanal), 2013, Journal of Financial Stability 9 (3), 300-319.

Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Market (with Giovanni Dell’Ariccia and Luc Laeven), 2012, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 44 (3), 367-384.

The Power of K: Politically-Targeted Activities, Connections, and the Financial System (with Prachi Mishra), 2012, Journal of Financial Transformation, Volume 35.

Bank Lending in Turkey: Effects of Monetary and Fiscal Policies (with Burcu Aydin), 2012, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade 48 (5), 78-104.

The “Wal-Mart Effect” in Central and Eastern Europe (with Junichi Suzuki), 2012, Journal of Comparative Economics 40 (2), 194-210.

Housing, Credit, and Real Activity Cycles: Characteristics and Comovement (with Francisco Nadal de Simone, Alain Kabundi, Marcelo Pinheiro, and Natalia Tamirisa), 2011, Journal of Housing Economics 20 (3), 210-231.

Incentive to Manipulate Earnings and its Connection to Analysts' Forecasts, Trading, and Corporate Governance (with Marcelo Pinheiro), 2012, Journal of Economics and Finance 36 (4), 781-821.

A Fistful of Dollars: Lobbying and the Financial Crisis (with Prachi Mishra and Thierry Tressel), 2011, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Volume 26.

Cross-Country Experiences and Policy Implications from the Global Financial Crisis (with Stijn Claessens, Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, and Luc Laeven), 2010, Economic Policy 62, 267-293.

Exposure to Real Estate in Bank Portfolios (with Marcelo Pinheiro), 2010, Journal of Real Estate Research 32 (1), 47-74.

Are Weak Banks Leading Credit Booms? Evidence from Emerging Europe (with Natalia Tamirisa), 2008, Comparative Economic Studies 50, 599-619.

Publications in Books and Conference Volumes

Distributional Effects of Monetary Policy (with Valentina Bonifacio, Luis Brandao-Marques, Nina Budina, Balazs Csonto, Philipp Engler, Chiara Fratto, Davide Furceri, Rui Mano, Machiko Narita, Murad Omoev, Gurnain Kaur Pasricha, and Helene Poirson), 2022, in Economic Challenges for Europe After the Pandemic, ed. Luigi Paganetto, Springer: Cham, Switzerland.

Bank Lobbying: Regulatory Capture and Beyond (with Thomas Lambert), 2019, (Chapter 5) in The Political Economy of Financial Regulation, eds. E. Avgouleas and D. Donald, Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK.

Policies for Macrofinancial Stability: Options to Deal with Credit Booms and Busts (with Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, Luc Laeven and Hui Tong), 2014, (Chapter 11) in Financial Crises: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses, eds. Claessens et al., IMF: Washington, DC.

Policies for Macrofinancial Stability: Managing Real Estate Booms and Busts (with Christopher Crowe, Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, and Pau Rabanal), 2014, (Chapter 12) in Financial Crises: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses, eds. Claessens et al., IMF: Washington, DC.

Repairing Household Balance Sheets (with Daniel Leigh, John Simon, and Petia Topalova), 2014, (Chapter 18) in Financial Crises: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses, eds. Claessens et al., IMF: Washington, DC.

A Cross-Country Perspective on the Causes of the Global Financial Crisis (with Stijn Claessens, Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, and Luc Laeven), 2013, (Chapter 48) in Handbooks in Financial Globalization: The Evidence and Impact of Financial Globalization, ed. Gerard Caprio, Elsevier: Oxford, UK.

Lessons and Policy Implications from the Global Financial Crisis (with Stijn Claessens, Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, and Luc Laeven), 2013, (Chapter 49) in Handbooks in Financial Globalization: The Evidence and Impact of Financial Globalization, ed. Gerard Caprio, Elsevier: Oxford, UK.

Dealing with Real Estate Booms (with Giovanni Dell'Ariccia), 2011, in Managing Real Estate Booms and Busts, eds. Stijn Claessens and Tae Soo Kang, IMF: Washington, DC.

Loan-to-Value and Debt-to-Income Limits as Macroprudential Tools: Evidence from Korea (with Heedon Kang), 2011, in Managing Real Estate Booms and Busts, eds. Stijn Claessens and Tae Soo Kang, IMF: Washington, DC.

The U.S. Subprime Mortgage Crisis: A Credit Boom Gone Bad? (with Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, and Luc Laeven), 2008, Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, May, 201-204.

Are Weak Banks Leading Credit Booms? Evidence from Emerging Europe (with Natalia Tamirisa), in Macrofinancial Linkages: Trends, Crises, and Policies, 2010, eds. Christopher Crowe, Simon Johnson, Jonathan Ostry, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer, IMF: Washington, DC. [reprinted in Global Banking Crises and Emerging Markets, 2016, eds. Josef C. Brada and Paul Wachtel, Palgrave Macmillan: UK.]

Speed Kills? Mortgage Credit Boom and the Crisis (with Giovanni Dell'Ariccia and Luc Laeven), 2010, in Lessons from the Financial Crisis: Causes, Consequences, and Our Economic Future, ed. Robert Kolb, Wiley: New York.

The Relationship between the Recent Boom and the Current Delinquencies in Subprime Mortgages (with Giovanni Dell'Ariccia and Luc Laeven), 2008, (lead piece) in The First Global Financial Crisis of the 21st Century, eds. Andrew Felton and Carmen Reinhart, CEPR: London, UK.

Product Quality and International Competitiveness in the New Member States of the EU, 2008, in Currency and Competitiveness in Europe, eds. Klaus Liebscher, Josef Christl, Peter Mooslechner, and Doris Ritzberger-Grunwald, Edward Elgar Publishing: Cheltenham, UK.

Other Published Materials

Housing costs: a final hurdle in the last mile of disinflation? (with Ryan Banerjee, Denis Gorea, and Gabor Pinter), 2024, BIS Bulletin 89.

Resilience in emerging markets: what makes it, what could shake it? (with Bryan Hardy and Enisse Kharroubi), 2024, BIS Bulletin 88.

Sectoral price dynamics in the last mile of post-Covid-19 disinflation (with Pongpitch Amatyakul and Marco Lombardi), 2024, BIS Quarterly Review, March, pp. 45–57.

Labour markets: what explains the resilience? (with Bernardus Doornik and Enisse Kharroubi), 2023, BIS Quarterly Review, December, pp. 77–93.

Monetary policy, financial conditions and real activity: is this time different? (with Fernando Avalos, Cristina Manea, and Richhild Moessner), 2023, BIS Bulletin 80.

The changing nexus between commodity prices and the dollar: causes and implications (with Boris Hofmann and Daniel Rees), 2023, BIS Bulletin 74.

Energy markets: shock, economic fallout and policy response (with Fernando Avalos, Adam Cap, Enisse Kharroubi, and Gabriela Nodari), 2022, BIS Bulletin 64.

Global supply chain disruptions: evolution, impact, outlook (with Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul and Koji Takahashi), 2022, BIS Bulletin 61.

Rising household inflation expectations: what are the communication challenges for central banks? (with Fiorella De Fiore, Tirupam Goel, and Richhild Moessner), 2022, BIS Bulletin 55.

Commodity market disruptions, growth and inflation (with Emanuel Kohlscheen, Gabriela Nodari, and Daniel Rees), 2022, BIS Bulletin 54.

Are major advanced economies on the verge of a wage-price spiral? (with Frederic Boissay, Fiorella De Fiore, Daniel Rees), BIS Bulletin 53.

Housing market risks in the wake of the pandemic (with Emanuel Kohlscheen and Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul), 2022, BIS Bulletin 50.

Deniz Igan is the Chief of the IMF Research Department’s World Economic Studies Division. Between 2021 and 2024, she was the Head of Macroeconomic Analysis at the Bank for International Settlements. Prior to that, she held various positions at the IMF, including as co-editor of the IMF Research Perspectives, an advisor to the editor for the IMF's Finance & Development magazine, and a recurring contributor to the Global Financial Stability Report, the World Economic Outlook, and the IMF-FSB Early Warning Exercise. Her research interests include macro-financial linkages, financial crises, real estate markets, and the political economy of financial regulation. Her work has been published in academic journals including policy-oriented volumes and presented widely in conferences and workshops. Deniz is a CEPR Research Fellow, an EUI Young Policy Leaders Fellow, an expert panelist at Zillow’s House Price Expectations Survey, and a recipient of the IMF Research Award for her innovative work on risks in real estate markets for the Early Warning Exercise and of best paper awards from the Midwest Finance Association and the American Real Estate Society.

Personal WebPage: https://ideas.repec.org/e/pig12.html

Fluent In: Turkish.

Education:

Princeton University, Ph.D.

Princeton University, M.A.

Bilkent University, B.A.


Field of Expertise:

Macro-Financial Issues

IMF Books and Working Papers:

Pricing Protest: The Response of Financial Markets to Social Unrest , Working Paper No. 2021/079 , March 19, 2021

Zombies on the Brink: Evidence from Japan on the Reversal of Monetary Policy Effectiveness , Working Paper No. 2021/044 , February 19, 2021

Government Intervention and Bank Market Power: Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis for the COVID-19 Crisis , Working Paper No. 2020/275 , December 11, 2020

Tracking the Economic Impact of COVID-19 and Mitigation Policies in Europe and the United States , Working Paper No. 20/125 , July 10, 2020

Does Going Tough on Banks Make the Going Get Tough? Bank Liquidity Regulations, Capital Requirements, and Sectoral Activity , Working Paper No. 20/103 , June 19, 2020

Discerning Good from Bad Credit Booms : The Role of Construction , Staff Discussion Notes No. 20/02 , February 12, 2020

Bank Lobbying: Regulatory Capture and Beyond , Working Paper No. 19/171 , August 09, 2019

Doing More for Less? New Evidence on Lobbying and Government Contracts , Working Paper No. 19/172 , August 09, 2019

The Long Shadow of the Global Financial Crisis: Public Interventions in the Financial Sector , Working Paper No. 19/164 , July 30, 2019

How Do Regulations of Entry and Credit Access Relate to Industry Competition? International Evidence , Working Paper No. 18/84 , April 06, 2018

Trade-offs in Bank Resolution , February 09, 2018

Winning Connections? Special Interests and the Sale of Failed Banks , Working Paper No. 17/262 , November 22, 2017

March Madness in Wall Street : (What) Does the Market Learn from Stress Tests? , Working Paper No. 15/271 , December 23, 2015

Delegated Portfolio Management, Benchmarking, and the Effects on Financial Markets , Working Paper No. 15/198 , September 08, 2015

Capital Inflows, Credit Growth, and Financial Systems , Working Paper No. 15/193 , August 19, 2015

The Macroeconomic Relevance of Credit Flows : An Exploration of U.S. Data , Working Paper No. 15/143 , June 30, 2015

Monetary Policy and Balance Sheets , Working Paper No. 13/158 , July 03, 2013

Fiscal Consolidation and the Cost of Credit : Evidence from Syndicated Loans , Working Paper No. 13/36 , February 01, 2013

Global Housing Cycles , Working Paper No. 12/217 , August 01, 2012

Policies for Macrofinancial Stability: How to Deal with Credit Booms , Staff Discussion Notes No. 12/6 , June 07, 2012

Policies for Macrofinancial Stability: How to Deal with Credit Booms , Staff Discussion Notes No. 12/6 , June 07, 2012

Credit Growth and Bank Soundness : Fast and Furious? , Working Paper No. 11/278 , December 01, 2011

Do Loan-To-Value and Debt-To-Income Limits Work? Evidence From Korea , Working Paper No. 11/297 , December 01, 2011

How to Deal with Real Estate Booms : Lessons From Country Experiences , Working Paper No. 11/91 , April 01, 2011

Policies for Macrofinancial Stability: Options to Deal with Real Estate Booms , Staff Discussion Notes No. 11/2 , March 01, 2011

Bank Lending in Turkey : Effects of Monetary and Fiscal Policies , Working Paper No. 10/233 , October 01, 2010

Lessons and Policy Implications from the Global Financial Crisis , Working Paper No. 10/44 , February 01, 2010

A Fistful of Dollars: Lobbying and the Financial Crisis , Working Paper No. 09/287 , December 01, 2009

Three Cycles: Housing, Credit, and Real Activity , Working Paper No. 09/231 , October 01, 2009

Exposure to Real Estate Losses: Evidence from the US Banks , Working Paper No. 09/79 , April 01, 2009

Are Weak Banks Leading Credit Booms? Evidence from Emerging Europe , Working Paper No. 08/219 , September 01, 2008

Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Market , Working Paper No. 08/106 , April 01, 2008

The Dynamics of Product Quality and International Competitiveness , Working Paper No. 07/97 , April 01, 2007

IMF Survey Articles

Global House Prices Still Showing Down Trend (with Prakash Loungani), 2012, IMF Survey, September 17

Bouncing Between Floors? Globally, House Prices are Up and Down (with Prakash Loungani), 2010, IMF Survey, October 8

Asian Real Estate Markets: On Bubble Alert? (with Hui Jin), 2010, IMF Survey, June 2

Managing Housing Sector Boom-Bust Cycles (with Roberto Cardarelli and Alessandro Rebucci), 2008, IMF Survey, April 3

Banking Risks Rise in Eastern Europe (with Natalia Tamirisa), 2007, IMF Survey, September 25

Staying on Top of the Game (with Stefania Fabrizio and Ashoka Mody), 2007, IMF Survey, June 13

iMFdirect Blog Posts

Construction Activity Can Signal When Credit Booms Go Wrong, February 12, 2020

How To Deal With Failed Banks, July 3, 2018

Going with the Flow: Benefits of Capital Inflows for Emerging Markets, December 6, 2016

Top Five Policy Priorities to Brighten America’s Economic Future, November 5, 2014

More Jobs That Pay Decent Wages: How To Fight Poverty In The United States, August 28, 2014

U.S. Fiscal Policy: A Tough Balancing Act, July 30, 2013

F&D articles

Making Friends (with Prachi Mishra), 2011, Finance & Development, June, Vol. 48, No. 2

Selected Issue

Housing Finance, 2015, United States: 2015 Article IV Consultation IMF Country Report No. 15/169

Fiscal Risks and Borrowing Costs in State and Local Governments (with Madelyn Estrada and Dinah Knight), 2014, in United States: 2014 Article IV Consultation IMF Country Report No. 14/222

Risky Business: The Uncertainty in U.S. Health Care Spending (with Kenichiro Kashiwase and Baoping Shang), 2013, in United States: 2013 Article IV Consultation IMF Country Report No. 13/237

Dutch Housing Markets: What Went Up Will Come Down?, 2010, Analytical Note 1 in Kingdom of the Netherlands – Netherlands: 2009 Article IV Consultation IMF Country Report No. 10/34

Macro-Financial Linkages in the Netherlands, 2010, Analytical Note 2 in Kingdom of the Netherlands – Netherlands: 2009 Article IV Consultation IMF Country Report No. 10/34

Emigration from Lithuania: Determinants and Implications, 2006, in Republic of Lithuania: Selected Issues, SM/06/163

Export Structure and Credit Growth (with Ashoka Mody, Stefania Fabrizio, and Natalia Tamirisa), 2006, Czech Republic, Republic of Estonia, Hungary, Republic of Latvia, Republic of Lithuania, Republic of Poland, Slovak Republic, and Republic of Slovenia, IMF Country Report No. 06/414

Other Published Materials

House Prices and Consumer Price Inflation (with Nina Biljanovska and Chenxu Fu), 2021, Box 1.1 in World Economic Outlook: Recovery During a Pandemic.

The Impact of COVID-19 on Inflation: Potential Drivers and Dynamics (with Ehsan Ebrahimy and Maria Soledad Martinez Peria), 2020, IMF COVID-19 Special Series Notes, September 10.

The Disconnect between Financial Markets and the Real Economy (with Divya Kirti and Maria Soledad Martinez Peria), 2020, IMF COVID-19 Special Series Notes, August 26.

The Role of Financial Sector Repair in the Speed of the Recovery, 2018, Box 2.3 in World Economic Outlook: Challenges to Steady Growth.

Growing with Flows: Evidence from Industry-Level Data, 2017, Box 2.2 in World Economic Outlook: Gaining Momentum?

Dealing with Household Debt (with Daniel Leigh, John Simon, and Petia Topalova), 2012, Chapter 3 in World Economic Outlook: Growth Resuming, Dangers Remain

Housing Finance and Financial Stability—Back to Basics? (with Ann-Margret Westin, Dawn Yi Lin Chew, Francesco Columba, Alessandro Gullo, Andreas Jobst, John Kiff, Andrea Maechler, Srobona Mitra, and Erlend Nier), 2011, Chapter 3 in Global Financial Stability Report: Durable Financial Stability: Getting There from Here

Dismal Prospects for the Real Estate Sector (with Prakash Loungani), 2010, Box 1.2 in World Economic Outlook: Recovery, Risk, and Rebalancing

Asian Residential Real Estate Markets: Bubble Trouble? (with Hui Jin), 2010, Box 1.3 in Global Financial Stability Report: Meeting New Challenges to Stability and Building a Safer System

Risks from Real Estate Markets (with Prakash Loungani), 2009, Box 1.4 in World Economic Outlook: Sustaining the Recovery

Seven Questions about Political Influence and the Financial Crisis (with Prachi Mishra and Thierry Tressel), 2009, IMF Research Bulletin, September

The Changing Housing Cycle and the Implications for Monetary Policy (with Roberto Cardarelli and Alessandro Rebucci), 2008, in World Economic Outlook: Housing and the Business Cycle

Publications in Journals (Refereed)

Pricing Protest: The Response of Financial Markets to Social Unrest (with Philip Barrett, Mariia Bondar, Sophia Chen, and Mali Chivakul), 2024, Review of Finance, vol. 28, pp. 1419–1450.

The Lion’s Share: Evidence from Federal Contracts on the Value of Political Connections (with Senay Agca), 2023, Journal of Law and Economics, vol. 66, pp. 609–638.

A Shot in the Arm: Economic Support Packages and Firm Performance during COVID-19 (with Ali Mirzaei and Tomoe Monroe), 2023, Journal of Corporate Finance, vol. 78, pp. 102340.

Does Macroprudential Policy Alleviate the Adverse Impact of COVID-19 on the Resilience of Banks? (with Ali Mirzaei and Tomoe Monroe), 2023, Journal of Banking and Finance, vol. 147, pp. 106419.

Winning Connections: Special Interests and the Sale of Failed Banks (with Thomas Lambert, Wolf Wagner, and Eden Zhang), 2022, Journal of Banking and Finance, vol. 140, pp. 106496.

The Long Shadow of the Global Financial Crisis: Public Interventions in the Financial Sector (with Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, Paolo Mauro, Hala Moussawi, Alexander Tieman, and Aleksandra Zdzienicka), 2022, IMF Economic Review, vol. 70 (2), pp. 212–251.

Government intervention and bank markups: Lessons from the global financial crisis for the COVID-19 crisis (with Brandon Tan, Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, Nicola Pierri, and Andrea F. Presbitero), 2021, Journal of Banking and Finance, vol. 133, pp. 106320.

The Real Effects of Capital Inflows in Emerging Markets (with Ali Kutan and Ali Mirzaei), 2020, Journal of Banking and Finance, vol. 119, pp. 105993.

Does Going Tough on Banks Make the Going Get Tough? Bank Liquidity Regulations, Capital Requirements, and Sectoral Activity (with Ali Mirzaei), 2020, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, vol. 177, pp. 688–726.

Tracking the Economic Impact of COVID-19 and Mitigation Policies in Europe and the United States (with Sophia Chen, Nicola Pierri, and Andrea Presbitero), 2020, COVID Economics, vol. 36, pp. 1–24.

March Madness in Wall Street: (What) Does the Market Learn from Stress Tests? (with Marcelo Fernandes and Marcelo Pinheiro), 2020, Journal of Banking and Finance, Volume 112, pp. 105250.

Fiscal Consolidation and the Cost of Credit (with Senay Agca), 2019, Journal of International Economics, Volume 120, pp. 84-108.

Capital Inflows, Credit Growth, and Financial Systems (with Zhibo Tan), 2017, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Volume 53 (12), pp. 2649–2671.

The Macroeconomic Relevance of Credit Flows: An Exploration of U.S. Data (with Alexander Herman and Juan Sole), 2017, Journal of Financial Stability, Volume 32, pp. 124-141.

Monetary Policy and Balance Sheets (with Francisco Nadal de Simone, Alain Kabundi, and Natalia Tamirisa), 2017, Journal of Policy Modeling 39 (1), 169–184.

Home Truths: Promises and Challenges in Linking Mortgages and Political Influence, 2016, Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences 2 (7), 69–86.

Delegated Portfolio Management, Benchmarking, and the Effects on Financial Markets (with Marcelo Pinheiro), 2016, Journal of Financial Transformation 43, 144–157.

Credit Booms and Macrofinancial Stability (with Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, Luc Laeven, and Hui Tong), 2016, Economic Policy 31 (86), 299–355.

A Study of a Market Anomaly: “White Men Can’t Jump,” But Would You Bet On It?” (with Marcelo Pinheiro and John Smith), 2015, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 113, 13-25.

Wall Street, Capitol Hill, and K Street: Political Influence and Financial Regulation (with Prachi Mishra), 2014, Journal of Law and Economics 57 (4), 1063-1084.

How to Deal with Real Estate Booms: Lessons from Country Experiences (with Christopher Crowe, Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, and Pau Rabanal), 2013, Journal of Financial Stability 9 (3), 300-319.

Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Market (with Giovanni Dell’Ariccia and Luc Laeven), 2012, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 44 (3), 367-384.

The Power of K: Politically-Targeted Activities, Connections, and the Financial System (with Prachi Mishra), 2012, Journal of Financial Transformation, Volume 35.

Bank Lending in Turkey: Effects of Monetary and Fiscal Policies (with Burcu Aydin), 2012, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade 48 (5), 78-104.

The “Wal-Mart Effect” in Central and Eastern Europe (with Junichi Suzuki), 2012, Journal of Comparative Economics 40 (2), 194-210.

Housing, Credit, and Real Activity Cycles: Characteristics and Comovement (with Francisco Nadal de Simone, Alain Kabundi, Marcelo Pinheiro, and Natalia Tamirisa), 2011, Journal of Housing Economics 20 (3), 210-231.

Incentive to Manipulate Earnings and its Connection to Analysts' Forecasts, Trading, and Corporate Governance (with Marcelo Pinheiro), 2012, Journal of Economics and Finance 36 (4), 781-821.

A Fistful of Dollars: Lobbying and the Financial Crisis (with Prachi Mishra and Thierry Tressel), 2011, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Volume 26.

Cross-Country Experiences and Policy Implications from the Global Financial Crisis (with Stijn Claessens, Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, and Luc Laeven), 2010, Economic Policy 62, 267-293.

Exposure to Real Estate in Bank Portfolios (with Marcelo Pinheiro), 2010, Journal of Real Estate Research 32 (1), 47-74.

Are Weak Banks Leading Credit Booms? Evidence from Emerging Europe (with Natalia Tamirisa), 2008, Comparative Economic Studies 50, 599-619.

Publications in Books and Conference Volumes

Distributional Effects of Monetary Policy (with Valentina Bonifacio, Luis Brandao-Marques, Nina Budina, Balazs Csonto, Philipp Engler, Chiara Fratto, Davide Furceri, Rui Mano, Machiko Narita, Murad Omoev, Gurnain Kaur Pasricha, and Helene Poirson), 2022, in Economic Challenges for Europe After the Pandemic, ed. Luigi Paganetto, Springer: Cham, Switzerland.

Bank Lobbying: Regulatory Capture and Beyond (with Thomas Lambert), 2019, (Chapter 5) in The Political Economy of Financial Regulation, eds. E. Avgouleas and D. Donald, Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK.

Policies for Macrofinancial Stability: Options to Deal with Credit Booms and Busts (with Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, Luc Laeven and Hui Tong), 2014, (Chapter 11) in Financial Crises: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses, eds. Claessens et al., IMF: Washington, DC.

Policies for Macrofinancial Stability: Managing Real Estate Booms and Busts (with Christopher Crowe, Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, and Pau Rabanal), 2014, (Chapter 12) in Financial Crises: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses, eds. Claessens et al., IMF: Washington, DC.

Repairing Household Balance Sheets (with Daniel Leigh, John Simon, and Petia Topalova), 2014, (Chapter 18) in Financial Crises: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses, eds. Claessens et al., IMF: Washington, DC.

A Cross-Country Perspective on the Causes of the Global Financial Crisis (with Stijn Claessens, Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, and Luc Laeven), 2013, (Chapter 48) in Handbooks in Financial Globalization: The Evidence and Impact of Financial Globalization, ed. Gerard Caprio, Elsevier: Oxford, UK.

Lessons and Policy Implications from the Global Financial Crisis (with Stijn Claessens, Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, and Luc Laeven), 2013, (Chapter 49) in Handbooks in Financial Globalization: The Evidence and Impact of Financial Globalization, ed. Gerard Caprio, Elsevier: Oxford, UK.

Dealing with Real Estate Booms (with Giovanni Dell'Ariccia), 2011, in Managing Real Estate Booms and Busts, eds. Stijn Claessens and Tae Soo Kang, IMF: Washington, DC.

Loan-to-Value and Debt-to-Income Limits as Macroprudential Tools: Evidence from Korea (with Heedon Kang), 2011, in Managing Real Estate Booms and Busts, eds. Stijn Claessens and Tae Soo Kang, IMF: Washington, DC.

The U.S. Subprime Mortgage Crisis: A Credit Boom Gone Bad? (with Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, and Luc Laeven), 2008, Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, May, 201-204.

Are Weak Banks Leading Credit Booms? Evidence from Emerging Europe (with Natalia Tamirisa), in Macrofinancial Linkages: Trends, Crises, and Policies, 2010, eds. Christopher Crowe, Simon Johnson, Jonathan Ostry, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer, IMF: Washington, DC. [reprinted in Global Banking Crises and Emerging Markets, 2016, eds. Josef C. Brada and Paul Wachtel, Palgrave Macmillan: UK.]

Speed Kills? Mortgage Credit Boom and the Crisis (with Giovanni Dell'Ariccia and Luc Laeven), 2010, in Lessons from the Financial Crisis: Causes, Consequences, and Our Economic Future, ed. Robert Kolb, Wiley: New York.

The Relationship between the Recent Boom and the Current Delinquencies in Subprime Mortgages (with Giovanni Dell'Ariccia and Luc Laeven), 2008, (lead piece) in The First Global Financial Crisis of the 21st Century, eds. Andrew Felton and Carmen Reinhart, CEPR: London, UK.

Product Quality and International Competitiveness in the New Member States of the EU, 2008, in Currency and Competitiveness in Europe, eds. Klaus Liebscher, Josef Christl, Peter Mooslechner, and Doris Ritzberger-Grunwald, Edward Elgar Publishing: Cheltenham, UK.

Other Published Materials

Housing costs: a final hurdle in the last mile of disinflation? (with Ryan Banerjee, Denis Gorea, and Gabor Pinter), 2024, BIS Bulletin 89.

Resilience in emerging markets: what makes it, what could shake it? (with Bryan Hardy and Enisse Kharroubi), 2024, BIS Bulletin 88.

Sectoral price dynamics in the last mile of post-Covid-19 disinflation (with Pongpitch Amatyakul and Marco Lombardi), 2024, BIS Quarterly Review, March, pp. 45–57.

Labour markets: what explains the resilience? (with Bernardus Doornik and Enisse Kharroubi), 2023, BIS Quarterly Review, December, pp. 77–93.

Monetary policy, financial conditions and real activity: is this time different? (with Fernando Avalos, Cristina Manea, and Richhild Moessner), 2023, BIS Bulletin 80.

The changing nexus between commodity prices and the dollar: causes and implications (with Boris Hofmann and Daniel Rees), 2023, BIS Bulletin 74.

Energy markets: shock, economic fallout and policy response (with Fernando Avalos, Adam Cap, Enisse Kharroubi, and Gabriela Nodari), 2022, BIS Bulletin 64.

Global supply chain disruptions: evolution, impact, outlook (with Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul and Koji Takahashi), 2022, BIS Bulletin 61.

Rising household inflation expectations: what are the communication challenges for central banks? (with Fiorella De Fiore, Tirupam Goel, and Richhild Moessner), 2022, BIS Bulletin 55.

Commodity market disruptions, growth and inflation (with Emanuel Kohlscheen, Gabriela Nodari, and Daniel Rees), 2022, BIS Bulletin 54.

Are major advanced economies on the verge of a wage-price spiral? (with Frederic Boissay, Fiorella De Fiore, Daniel Rees), BIS Bulletin 53.

Housing market risks in the wake of the pandemic (with Emanuel Kohlscheen and Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul), 2022, BIS Bulletin 50.