Raphael A. Espinoza
Last Updated: March 11, 2024
Raphael Espinoza is Deputy Division Chief in the Central America Division of the IMF Western Hemisphere Department and an external research associate at the University of Oxford. Previously, he was Deputy Division Chief in the Fiscal Policy Division of the IMF Fiscal Affairs Department. He has worked on a variety of IMF program and near-program countries as well as on research-oriented positions at the IMF and at the European Central Bank. He has also been Assistant Professor in Economics at University College London (UCL), where he was the Director of the Centre for Studies of Emerging Economies, and provided advisory services as a financial stability expert for the central banks of Peru and Colombia. He has published extensively on macroeconomics and economic development issues, including in two books (Macroeconomic Policy in Fragile States, OUP, 2021; The Macroeconomics of the Arab States of the Gulf, OUP, 2013). He holds a PhD in Economics from the University of Oxford.
Email: RESPINOZA@imf.org
Fluent In: French, Spanish.
Education:
PhD in Economics, University of Oxford, 2009
Visiting PhD student, Yale University, 2007
MSc. in Economics for Development, University of Oxford, 2004
Ingenieur des Ponts et Chaussees (MSc. in Applied Mathematics), 2004
Previous Experience:
Deputy Division Chief, Fiscal Policy and Surveillance Division, Fiscal Affairs Department
Senior Economist, European Department, UK desk, IMF, 2018-2019
Director, Centre for Comparative Studies of Emerging Economies, UCL, 2015-2016
Assistant Professor in Economics, University College London (UCL), 2014-2016
Senior Economist/Economist, Research Department, Systemic Issues Division, IMF, 2011-2018
Economist, Strategy, Policy and Review Department, Strategy Unit for Low Income Countries, IMF, 2010-2011
Economist, Middle East and Central Asia Department, Gulf Cooperation Council Division, IMF, 2008-2010
Economist, International Environment Division, European Central Bank, 2007-2008
Field of Expertise:
Development Economics
Monetary Policy
Macro-Financial Issues
Open Economy Macroeconomics
IMF Books and Working Papers:
The Fiscal Multiplier of Public Investment: The Role of Corporate Balance Sheet , Working Paper No. 20/199 , September 25, 2020
Systemic Risk Modeling: How Theory Can Meet Statistics , Working Paper No. 20/54 , March 13, 2020
Economic Gains From Gender Inclusion : New Mechanisms, New Evidence , Staff Discussion Notes No. 18/06 , October 08, 2018
Macroprudential Stress Tests: A Reduced-Form Approach to Quantifying Systemic Risk Losses , Working Paper No. 18/49 , March 09, 2018
FX Intervention in the New Keynesian Model , Working Paper No. 17/207 , September 29, 2017
How Do Fiscal and Labor Policies in France Affect Inequality? , Working Paper No. 16/41 , February 29, 2016
Wage Moderation in Crises : Policy Considerations and Applications to the Euro Area , Staff Discussion Notes No. 15/22 , November 17, 2015
When Should Public Debt Be Reduced? , Staff Discussion Notes No. 15/10 , June 02, 2015
Labor Tax Cuts and Employment: A General Equilibrium Approach for France , Working Paper No. 14/114 , July 01, 2014
The Macroeconomics of the Arab States of the Gulf , November 21, 2013
Monetary Transaction Costs and the Term Premium , Working Paper No. 13/85 , April 03, 2013
Optimal Oil Production and the World Supply of Oil , Working Paper No. 12/294 , December 17, 2012
As You sow so Shall You Reap : Public Investment Surges, Growth, and Debt Sustainability in togo , Working Paper No. 12/127 , May 01, 2012
Monetary Policy Transmission in the GCC Countries , Working Paper No. 12/132 , May 01, 2012
Spillovers to Low-Income Countries : Importance of Systemic Emerging Markets , Working Paper No. 12/49 , February 01, 2012
Probabilities of Default and the Market Price of Risk in a Distressed Economy , Working Paper No. 11/75 , April 01, 2011
How Strong Are Fiscal Multipliers in the GCC? An Empirical Investigation , Working Paper No. 11/61 , March 01, 2011
Nonperforming Loans in the GCC Banking System and their Macroeconomic Effects , Working Paper No. 10/224 , October 01, 2010
Recent Credit Stagnation in the MENA Region: What to Expect? What Can Be Done? , Working Paper No. 10/219 , September 01, 2010
Regional Financial Integration in the GCC , Working Paper No. 10/90 , April 01, 2010
Estimating The Inflation-Growth Nexus - A Smooth Transition Model , Working Paper No. 10/76 , March 01, 2010
The Role of Financial Variables in Predicting Economic Activity in the Euro Area , Working Paper No. 09/241 , November 01, 2009
Regional Financial Integration in the Caribbean: Evidence from Financial and Macroeconomic Data , Working Paper No. 09/139 , July 01, 2009
Other Published Materials
Public Investment for the Recovery, Fiscal Monitor, October 2020, Lead author
Strengthening the Credibility of Public Finances, Fiscal Monitor, Lead author
Books
Publications in Journals (Refereed)
Monetary Transaction Costs and the Term Premium," with D. Tsomocos, Economic Theory, 2015
Other Published Materials
Raphael Espinoza is Deputy Division Chief in the Central America Division of the IMF Western Hemisphere Department and an external research associate at the University of Oxford. Previously, he was Deputy Division Chief in the Fiscal Policy Division of the IMF Fiscal Affairs Department. He has worked on a variety of IMF program and near-program countries as well as on research-oriented positions at the IMF and at the European Central Bank. He has also been Assistant Professor in Economics at University College London (UCL), where he was the Director of the Centre for Studies of Emerging Economies, and provided advisory services as a financial stability expert for the central banks of Peru and Colombia. He has published extensively on macroeconomics and economic development issues, including in two books (Macroeconomic Policy in Fragile States, OUP, 2021; The Macroeconomics of the Arab States of the Gulf, OUP, 2013). He holds a PhD in Economics from the University of Oxford.
Email: RESPINOZA@imf.org
Fluent In: French, Spanish.
Education:
PhD in Economics, University of Oxford, 2009
Visiting PhD student, Yale University, 2007
MSc. in Economics for Development, University of Oxford, 2004
Ingenieur des Ponts et Chaussees (MSc. in Applied Mathematics), 2004
Previous Experience:
Deputy Division Chief, Fiscal Policy and Surveillance Division, Fiscal Affairs Department
Senior Economist, European Department, UK desk, IMF, 2018-2019
Director, Centre for Comparative Studies of Emerging Economies, UCL, 2015-2016
Assistant Professor in Economics, University College London (UCL), 2014-2016
Senior Economist/Economist, Research Department, Systemic Issues Division, IMF, 2011-2018
Economist, Strategy, Policy and Review Department, Strategy Unit for Low Income Countries, IMF, 2010-2011
Economist, Middle East and Central Asia Department, Gulf Cooperation Council Division, IMF, 2008-2010
Economist, International Environment Division, European Central Bank, 2007-2008
Field of Expertise:
Development Economics
Monetary Policy
Macro-Financial Issues
Open Economy Macroeconomics
IMF Books and Working Papers:
The Fiscal Multiplier of Public Investment: The Role of Corporate Balance Sheet , Working Paper No. 20/199 , September 25, 2020
Systemic Risk Modeling: How Theory Can Meet Statistics , Working Paper No. 20/54 , March 13, 2020
Economic Gains From Gender Inclusion : New Mechanisms, New Evidence , Staff Discussion Notes No. 18/06 , October 08, 2018
Macroprudential Stress Tests: A Reduced-Form Approach to Quantifying Systemic Risk Losses , Working Paper No. 18/49 , March 09, 2018
FX Intervention in the New Keynesian Model , Working Paper No. 17/207 , September 29, 2017
How Do Fiscal and Labor Policies in France Affect Inequality? , Working Paper No. 16/41 , February 29, 2016
Wage Moderation in Crises : Policy Considerations and Applications to the Euro Area , Staff Discussion Notes No. 15/22 , November 17, 2015
When Should Public Debt Be Reduced? , Staff Discussion Notes No. 15/10 , June 02, 2015
Labor Tax Cuts and Employment: A General Equilibrium Approach for France , Working Paper No. 14/114 , July 01, 2014
The Macroeconomics of the Arab States of the Gulf , November 21, 2013
Monetary Transaction Costs and the Term Premium , Working Paper No. 13/85 , April 03, 2013
Optimal Oil Production and the World Supply of Oil , Working Paper No. 12/294 , December 17, 2012
As You sow so Shall You Reap : Public Investment Surges, Growth, and Debt Sustainability in togo , Working Paper No. 12/127 , May 01, 2012
Monetary Policy Transmission in the GCC Countries , Working Paper No. 12/132 , May 01, 2012
Spillovers to Low-Income Countries : Importance of Systemic Emerging Markets , Working Paper No. 12/49 , February 01, 2012
Probabilities of Default and the Market Price of Risk in a Distressed Economy , Working Paper No. 11/75 , April 01, 2011
How Strong Are Fiscal Multipliers in the GCC? An Empirical Investigation , Working Paper No. 11/61 , March 01, 2011
Nonperforming Loans in the GCC Banking System and their Macroeconomic Effects , Working Paper No. 10/224 , October 01, 2010
Recent Credit Stagnation in the MENA Region: What to Expect? What Can Be Done? , Working Paper No. 10/219 , September 01, 2010
Regional Financial Integration in the GCC , Working Paper No. 10/90 , April 01, 2010
Estimating The Inflation-Growth Nexus - A Smooth Transition Model , Working Paper No. 10/76 , March 01, 2010
The Role of Financial Variables in Predicting Economic Activity in the Euro Area , Working Paper No. 09/241 , November 01, 2009
Regional Financial Integration in the Caribbean: Evidence from Financial and Macroeconomic Data , Working Paper No. 09/139 , July 01, 2009
Other Published Materials
Public Investment for the Recovery, Fiscal Monitor, October 2020, Lead author
Strengthening the Credibility of Public Finances, Fiscal Monitor, Lead author
Books
Publications in Journals (Refereed)
Monetary Transaction Costs and the Term Premium," with D. Tsomocos, Economic Theory, 2015