IMF RESEARCHER

Born on January 22, 1964 in Prague, Czech Republic

Email: ABULIR@imf.org

Personal WebPage: http://ales-bulir.wbs.cz/

Fluent In: Czech, Russian.

Education:

PhD. (Econ), thesis on monetary targeting, Prague University of Economics, 1988-1992 M.Sc. (Econ), London School of Economics and Political Science, 1991-1992

Previous Experience:

Czech National Bank, Prague, 1992-1993, 2002/2003; Prague University of Economics, Prague, Assistant and Associate Professor, 1987-1993, 2002/2003

Referee Activities:

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy; European Economic Review; Journal of Development Economics; Economica; Economic Modelling; Journal of Financial Stability; European Journal of Political Economy; Journal of Comparative Economics; South African Journal of Economics; Czech Journal of Economics and Finance; Economic Systems; Economic Letters; Empirical Economics; Economics Bulletin; International Finance; Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance; World Development

Other Professional Positions:

Adviser to Governor (Czech National Bank, 2002-2003): areas of work included inflation targeting and research coordination; Member of the External Research Committee (Czech National Bank)

Country work or Mission Assignment:

Technical assistance on developing forecasting and policy analysis framework in Morocco; Desk economist: Russia, Ghana, Malawi; External sector (SPR): Mexico, Zimbabwe; Capacity Development (ICD): Development of several courses on policy modeling

IMF Career:

Research Department; Institute for Capacity Development; Policy and Development Review Department; African Department; Monetary and Exchange Affairs Department; European II Department

Field of Expertise:

Monetary Policy

Open Economy Macroeconomics

Macro-Financial Issues

Development Economics

Economic Modeling

IMF Books and Working Papers:

Using Macroeconomic Frameworks to Analyze the Impact of COVID-19 : An Application to Colombia and Cambodia , Technical Notes and Manuals No. 2021/001 , April 01, 2021

A Simple Macrofiscal Model for Policy Analysis: An Application to Cambodia , Working Paper No. 20/202 , September 25, 2020

Monetary Policy Is Not Always Systematic and Data-Driven: Evidence from the Yield Curve , Working Paper No. 20/4 , January 17, 2020

An Index for Transparency for Inflation-Targeting Central Banks: Application to the Czech National Bank , Working Paper No. 18/210 , September 28, 2018

Morocco: A Practical Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis in a Country with Capital Controls , Working Paper No. 18/27 , February 14, 2018

Monetary Transmission : Are Emerging Market and Low Income Countries Different? , Working Paper No. 15/239 , November 20, 2015

Does the Clarity of Inflation Reports Affect Volatility in Financial Markets? , Working Paper No. 14/175 , September 24, 2014

Inflation Reports and Models: How Well Do Central Banks Really Write? , Working Paper No. 14/91 , May 29, 2014

Clarity of Central Bank Communication About Inflation , Working Paper No. 12/9 , January 01, 2012

The Dynamic Implications of Debt Relief for Low-Income Countries , Working Paper No. 11/157 , July 01, 2011

Sustainable Real Exchange Rates in the New EU Member States: What did the Great Recession Change? , Working Paper No. 10/198 , August 01, 2010

Inflation Targeting and Communication: It Pays Off to Read Inflation Reports , Working Paper No. 08/234 , October 01, 2008

Writing Clearly: ECB’s Monetary Policy Communication , Working Paper No. 08/252 , October 01, 2008

Striving to Be "Clearly Open" and "Crystal Clear": Monetary Policy Communication of the CNB , Working Paper No. 08/84 , April 01, 2008

Taylor Rule Under Financial Instability , Working Paper No. 08/18 , January 01, 2008

What Explains Private Saving in Mexico? , Working Paper No. 06/191 , August 01, 2006

The Maastricht Inflation Criterion: How Unpleasant is Purgatory? , Working Paper No. 06/154 , June 01, 2006

Volatility of Development Aid: From the Frying Pan Into the Fire? , Working Paper No. 06/65 , March 01, 2006

The Dynamic Implications of Foreign Aid and Its Variability , Working Paper No. 05/119 , June 01, 2005

Exchange Rates in the New EU Accession Countries: What Have We Learned from the Forerunners? , Working Paper No. 05/27 , February 01, 2005

Liberalized Markets Have More Stable Exchange Rates: Short-Run Evidence from Four Transition Countries , Working Paper No. 04/35 , February 01, 2004

Do IMF-Supported Programs Help Make Fiscal Adjustment More Durable? , Working Paper No. 03/38 , February 01, 2003

Aid and Fiscal Management , Working Paper No. 02/112 , June 01, 2002

IMF-Supported Programs in Capital Account Crises : Design and Experience , Occasional Paper No. 210 , February 06, 2002

How Volatile and Unpredictable Are Aid Flows, and What Are the Policy Implications? , Working Paper No. 01/167 , October 01, 2001

The Gender Gap in Education in Eritrea in 1991-98: A Missed Opportunity? , Working Paper No. 01/94 , August 01, 2001

Growth Slowdown in Bureaucratic Economic Systems: An Issue Revisited , Working Paper No. 01/6 , January 01, 2001

Managing Financial Crises - The Experience in East Asia , Working Paper No. 00/107 , June 01, 2000

The Price Incentive to Smuggle and the Cocoa Supply in Ghana, 1950-96 , Working Paper No. 98/88 , June 01, 1998

Income Inequality - Does Inflation Matter? , Working Paper No. 98/7 , January 01, 1998

Business Cycle in Czechoslovakia Under Central Planning: Were Credit Shocks Causing it? , Working Paper No. 96/129 , November 01, 1996

Inflation and Income Distribution - Further Evidence on Empirical Links , Working Paper No. 95/86 , August 01, 1995

Publications in Journals (Refereed)

Aleš Bulír, Jaromír Hurník, Katerina Šmídková, 2016, "What Do Central Banks Know about Inflation Factors?" Open Economies Review

Alma Lucía Romero-Barrutieta, Aleš Bulír, and José Daniel Rodríguez-Delgado, 2015, "The Dynamic Implications of Debt Relief for Low-Income Countries," Review of Development Finance

Bulír, Aleš; Cihák, Martin, Jansen, David-Jan, 2012, "Clarity of Central Bank Communication About Inflation," Open Economies Review

Aleš Bulír, Martin Cihák, Katerina Šmídková, 2012, "Writing Clearly: The ECB's Monetary Policy Communication," German Economic Review

Jan Babecký, Aleš Bulír, and Katerina Šmídková, 2012, "Sustainable Real Exchange Rates in the New EU Member States: What did the Great Recession Change?", Czech Journal of Economics and Finance

Sofia Bauducco, Aleš Bulír, and Martin Cihák, 2011, "Monetary Policy Rules with Financial Instability," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance

Cristina Arellano, Aleš Bulír, Timothy Lane, and Leslie Lipschitz, 2009, "The dynamic implications of foreign aid and its variability," Journal of Development Economics

Aleš Bulír, Jaromír Hurník, 2009, "Inflation convergence in the euro area: just another gimmick?" Journal of Financial Economic Policy

Aleš Bulír and Andrew Swiston, 2009, "Emerging Market Countries Don’t Believe in Fiscal Stimuli: Should We Blame Ricardo?", Czech Journal of Economics and Finance

Šmídková, Katerina, Aleš Bulír, Martin Cihák, 2008, "Hits and Misses: Ten Years of Czech Inflation Targeting," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance

Aleš Bulír and A. Javier Hamann, 2008, "Volatility of Development Aid: From the Frying Pan into the Fire?" World Development

Aleš Bulír, and Jaromír Hurník, 2008, "Why has inflation in the European Union stopped converging?" Journal of Policy Modeling

Aleš Bulír and A. Javier Hamann, 2007, "Volatility of Development Aid: An Update," IMF Staff Papers

Aleš Bulír, and Jaromír Hurník, 2006, "The Maastricht inflation criterion: how unpleasant is purgatory?" Economic Systems

Jan Babecký, Aleš Bulír, and Katerina Šmídková, 2008, "Sustainable Exchange Rates when Trade Winds Are Plentiful," National Institute Economic Review

Aleš Bulír, 2005 "Liberalized Markets Have More Stable Exchange Rates: Short-Run Evidence from Four Transition Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance

Aleš Bulír and Katerina Šmídková, 2005, "Exchange rates in the new EU accession countries: What have we learned from the forerunners? Economic Systems

Šmídková, Katerina and Bulír, Aleš, 2007, "Striving to Be 'Clearly Open' and 'Crystal Clear' : Monetary Policy Communication of the CNB," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance

Aleš Bulír and Soojin Moon, 2004, "Is Fiscal Adjustment More Durable When The IMF is Involved?" Comparative Economic Studies

Aleš Bulír and A. Javier Hamann, 2003, "Aid Volatility: An Empirical Assessment," IMF Staff Papers

Zuzana Brixiová and Aleš Bulír, 2003, "Output performance under central planning: a model of poor incentives," Economic Systems

Aleš Bulír, 2001, "Income Inequality: Does Inflation Matter?" IMF Staff Papers

Aleš Bulír, 1998, "Business cycle in Czechoslovakia under central planning: were credit shocks causing it?" Journal of Comparative Economics

Aleš Bulír, 2001, "The impact of macroeconomic policies on the distribution of income," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics

Aleš Bulír, 1995, "Credit redistribution and monetary targets under central planning in Czechoslovakia," Economic Systems.

Aleš Bulír and Joshua Charap, 1993, "The Czech and Slovak Republics: The Process of Divergence," Communist Economies and Economic Transformation

Publications in Books and Conference Volumes

Aleš Bulír and Katerina Šmídková, 2007, "Fast Sailing Toward the Euro: Dangers of the Lee Shore," in: Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets and Other Developing Countries, edited by Nicoletta Batini

Aleš Bulír and Timothy Lane, 2004, "Aid and Fiscal Management," In: Helping Countries Develop, S. Gupta, B. Clements, and G. Inchauste, eds. (International Monetary Fund: Washington)

Aleš Bulír, 1997, "Monitoring of Borrowers under Asymmetric Information: The Czech Experience in the Early 1990s," In: The Privatization Process in East-Central Europe, M. Mejstrík (ed.), (Kluwer Academic Publishers: London).

Aleš Bulír, 1992, "Macroeconomic Policy and Institutions in the Czechoslovak Transition: The Starting Point and First Steps," In: The Economic Transformation of Eastern Europe: Views from Within, B. Katz and L. Rittenberg (eds.), (Praeger: London)

Other Published Materials

In September 2006 I interviewed Mrs. Meda Mládková about her life in Washington (her husband, Jan Mládek, was Director of the IMF's African and Central Banking Departments), her love of art collecting, and the modern art museum in Prague (Muzeum Kampa) she founded with her collection and continues to run.

Born on January 22, 1964 in Prague, Czech Republic

Email: ABULIR@imf.org

Personal WebPage: http://ales-bulir.wbs.cz/

Fluent In: Czech, Russian.

Education:

PhD. (Econ), thesis on monetary targeting, Prague University of Economics, 1988-1992 M.Sc. (Econ), London School of Economics and Political Science, 1991-1992

Previous Experience:

Czech National Bank, Prague, 1992-1993, 2002/2003; Prague University of Economics, Prague, Assistant and Associate Professor, 1987-1993, 2002/2003

Referee Activities:

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy; European Economic Review; Journal of Development Economics; Economica; Economic Modelling; Journal of Financial Stability; European Journal of Political Economy; Journal of Comparative Economics; South African Journal of Economics; Czech Journal of Economics and Finance; Economic Systems; Economic Letters; Empirical Economics; Economics Bulletin; International Finance; Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance; World Development

Other Professional Positions:

Adviser to Governor (Czech National Bank, 2002-2003): areas of work included inflation targeting and research coordination; Member of the External Research Committee (Czech National Bank)

Country work or Mission Assignment:

Technical assistance on developing forecasting and policy analysis framework in Morocco; Desk economist: Russia, Ghana, Malawi; External sector (SPR): Mexico, Zimbabwe; Capacity Development (ICD): Development of several courses on policy modeling

IMF Career:

Research Department; Institute for Capacity Development; Policy and Development Review Department; African Department; Monetary and Exchange Affairs Department; European II Department

Field of Expertise:

Monetary Policy

Open Economy Macroeconomics

Macro-Financial Issues

Development Economics

Economic Modeling

IMF Books and Working Papers:

Using Macroeconomic Frameworks to Analyze the Impact of COVID-19 : An Application to Colombia and Cambodia , Technical Notes and Manuals No. 2021/001 , April 01, 2021

A Simple Macrofiscal Model for Policy Analysis: An Application to Cambodia , Working Paper No. 20/202 , September 25, 2020

Monetary Policy Is Not Always Systematic and Data-Driven: Evidence from the Yield Curve , Working Paper No. 20/4 , January 17, 2020

An Index for Transparency for Inflation-Targeting Central Banks: Application to the Czech National Bank , Working Paper No. 18/210 , September 28, 2018

Morocco: A Practical Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis in a Country with Capital Controls , Working Paper No. 18/27 , February 14, 2018

Monetary Transmission : Are Emerging Market and Low Income Countries Different? , Working Paper No. 15/239 , November 20, 2015

Does the Clarity of Inflation Reports Affect Volatility in Financial Markets? , Working Paper No. 14/175 , September 24, 2014

Inflation Reports and Models: How Well Do Central Banks Really Write? , Working Paper No. 14/91 , May 29, 2014

Clarity of Central Bank Communication About Inflation , Working Paper No. 12/9 , January 01, 2012

The Dynamic Implications of Debt Relief for Low-Income Countries , Working Paper No. 11/157 , July 01, 2011

Sustainable Real Exchange Rates in the New EU Member States: What did the Great Recession Change? , Working Paper No. 10/198 , August 01, 2010

Inflation Targeting and Communication: It Pays Off to Read Inflation Reports , Working Paper No. 08/234 , October 01, 2008

Writing Clearly: ECB’s Monetary Policy Communication , Working Paper No. 08/252 , October 01, 2008

Striving to Be "Clearly Open" and "Crystal Clear": Monetary Policy Communication of the CNB , Working Paper No. 08/84 , April 01, 2008

Taylor Rule Under Financial Instability , Working Paper No. 08/18 , January 01, 2008

What Explains Private Saving in Mexico? , Working Paper No. 06/191 , August 01, 2006

The Maastricht Inflation Criterion: How Unpleasant is Purgatory? , Working Paper No. 06/154 , June 01, 2006

Volatility of Development Aid: From the Frying Pan Into the Fire? , Working Paper No. 06/65 , March 01, 2006

The Dynamic Implications of Foreign Aid and Its Variability , Working Paper No. 05/119 , June 01, 2005

Exchange Rates in the New EU Accession Countries: What Have We Learned from the Forerunners? , Working Paper No. 05/27 , February 01, 2005

Liberalized Markets Have More Stable Exchange Rates: Short-Run Evidence from Four Transition Countries , Working Paper No. 04/35 , February 01, 2004

Do IMF-Supported Programs Help Make Fiscal Adjustment More Durable? , Working Paper No. 03/38 , February 01, 2003

Aid and Fiscal Management , Working Paper No. 02/112 , June 01, 2002

IMF-Supported Programs in Capital Account Crises : Design and Experience , Occasional Paper No. 210 , February 06, 2002

How Volatile and Unpredictable Are Aid Flows, and What Are the Policy Implications? , Working Paper No. 01/167 , October 01, 2001

The Gender Gap in Education in Eritrea in 1991-98: A Missed Opportunity? , Working Paper No. 01/94 , August 01, 2001

Growth Slowdown in Bureaucratic Economic Systems: An Issue Revisited , Working Paper No. 01/6 , January 01, 2001

Managing Financial Crises - The Experience in East Asia , Working Paper No. 00/107 , June 01, 2000

The Price Incentive to Smuggle and the Cocoa Supply in Ghana, 1950-96 , Working Paper No. 98/88 , June 01, 1998

Income Inequality - Does Inflation Matter? , Working Paper No. 98/7 , January 01, 1998

Business Cycle in Czechoslovakia Under Central Planning: Were Credit Shocks Causing it? , Working Paper No. 96/129 , November 01, 1996

Inflation and Income Distribution - Further Evidence on Empirical Links , Working Paper No. 95/86 , August 01, 1995

Publications in Journals (Refereed)

Aleš Bulír, Jaromír Hurník, Katerina Šmídková, 2016, "What Do Central Banks Know about Inflation Factors?" Open Economies Review

Alma Lucía Romero-Barrutieta, Aleš Bulír, and José Daniel Rodríguez-Delgado, 2015, "The Dynamic Implications of Debt Relief for Low-Income Countries," Review of Development Finance

Bulír, Aleš; Cihák, Martin, Jansen, David-Jan, 2012, "Clarity of Central Bank Communication About Inflation," Open Economies Review

Aleš Bulír, Martin Cihák, Katerina Šmídková, 2012, "Writing Clearly: The ECB's Monetary Policy Communication," German Economic Review

Jan Babecký, Aleš Bulír, and Katerina Šmídková, 2012, "Sustainable Real Exchange Rates in the New EU Member States: What did the Great Recession Change?", Czech Journal of Economics and Finance

Sofia Bauducco, Aleš Bulír, and Martin Cihák, 2011, "Monetary Policy Rules with Financial Instability," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance

Cristina Arellano, Aleš Bulír, Timothy Lane, and Leslie Lipschitz, 2009, "The dynamic implications of foreign aid and its variability," Journal of Development Economics

Aleš Bulír, Jaromír Hurník, 2009, "Inflation convergence in the euro area: just another gimmick?" Journal of Financial Economic Policy

Aleš Bulír and Andrew Swiston, 2009, "Emerging Market Countries Don’t Believe in Fiscal Stimuli: Should We Blame Ricardo?", Czech Journal of Economics and Finance

Šmídková, Katerina, Aleš Bulír, Martin Cihák, 2008, "Hits and Misses: Ten Years of Czech Inflation Targeting," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance

Aleš Bulír and A. Javier Hamann, 2008, "Volatility of Development Aid: From the Frying Pan into the Fire?" World Development

Aleš Bulír, and Jaromír Hurník, 2008, "Why has inflation in the European Union stopped converging?" Journal of Policy Modeling

Aleš Bulír and A. Javier Hamann, 2007, "Volatility of Development Aid: An Update," IMF Staff Papers

Aleš Bulír, and Jaromír Hurník, 2006, "The Maastricht inflation criterion: how unpleasant is purgatory?" Economic Systems

Jan Babecký, Aleš Bulír, and Katerina Šmídková, 2008, "Sustainable Exchange Rates when Trade Winds Are Plentiful," National Institute Economic Review

Aleš Bulír, 2005 "Liberalized Markets Have More Stable Exchange Rates: Short-Run Evidence from Four Transition Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance

Aleš Bulír and Katerina Šmídková, 2005, "Exchange rates in the new EU accession countries: What have we learned from the forerunners? Economic Systems

Šmídková, Katerina and Bulír, Aleš, 2007, "Striving to Be 'Clearly Open' and 'Crystal Clear' : Monetary Policy Communication of the CNB," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance

Aleš Bulír and Soojin Moon, 2004, "Is Fiscal Adjustment More Durable When The IMF is Involved?" Comparative Economic Studies

Aleš Bulír and A. Javier Hamann, 2003, "Aid Volatility: An Empirical Assessment," IMF Staff Papers

Zuzana Brixiová and Aleš Bulír, 2003, "Output performance under central planning: a model of poor incentives," Economic Systems

Aleš Bulír, 2001, "Income Inequality: Does Inflation Matter?" IMF Staff Papers

Aleš Bulír, 1998, "Business cycle in Czechoslovakia under central planning: were credit shocks causing it?" Journal of Comparative Economics

Aleš Bulír, 2001, "The impact of macroeconomic policies on the distribution of income," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics

Aleš Bulír, 1995, "Credit redistribution and monetary targets under central planning in Czechoslovakia," Economic Systems.

Aleš Bulír and Joshua Charap, 1993, "The Czech and Slovak Republics: The Process of Divergence," Communist Economies and Economic Transformation

Publications in Books and Conference Volumes

Aleš Bulír and Katerina Šmídková, 2007, "Fast Sailing Toward the Euro: Dangers of the Lee Shore," in: Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets and Other Developing Countries, edited by Nicoletta Batini

Aleš Bulír and Timothy Lane, 2004, "Aid and Fiscal Management," In: Helping Countries Develop, S. Gupta, B. Clements, and G. Inchauste, eds. (International Monetary Fund: Washington)

Aleš Bulír, 1997, "Monitoring of Borrowers under Asymmetric Information: The Czech Experience in the Early 1990s," In: The Privatization Process in East-Central Europe, M. Mejstrík (ed.), (Kluwer Academic Publishers: London).

Aleš Bulír, 1992, "Macroeconomic Policy and Institutions in the Czechoslovak Transition: The Starting Point and First Steps," In: The Economic Transformation of Eastern Europe: Views from Within, B. Katz and L. Rittenberg (eds.), (Praeger: London)

Other Published Materials

In September 2006 I interviewed Mrs. Meda Mládková about her life in Washington (her husband, Jan Mládek, was Director of the IMF's African and Central Banking Departments), her love of art collecting, and the modern art museum in Prague (Muzeum Kampa) she founded with her collection and continues to run.