Selected Issues Papers

Inflation in Portugal: Recent Trends, Drivers, and Risks

Author/Editor:

Kamil Dybczak ; Ippei Shibata

Publication Date:

July 10, 2023

Electronic Access:

Free Download. Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view this PDF file

Summary:

This paper examines recent trends, main drivers, and risks to near-term inflation in Portugal. Before the energy crisis, inflation in Portugal was low, often below the Euro Area average, but it accelerated quickly in the second half of 2022. Our estimated Phillips curve regression suggests that, similarly to other Euro Area countries, inflation in Portugal has been largely driven by food and external prices pressures. Inflation is projected to gradually decrease, reflecting receding energy prices and anchored inflation expectations. However, uncertainty remains high and inflation could remain elevated, especially if the inflationary process became backward looking or wage-inflation spirals are induced by pressures from energy prices.

Series:

Selected Issues Paper No. 2023/044

Subject:

Commodity prices Energy prices Inflation International organization Labor Monetary policy Oil prices Prices Wages

Frequency:

Regular