Aging Gracefully: Steering the Banking Sector through Demographic Shifts
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Summary:
We analyze how aging populations might affect the stability of banking systems through changes in the balance sheets and risk preferences of banks over the period 2000-2022. While the anticipated decline in maturity transformation due to aging hints at a possible reduction in risk exposure, an older population may propel banks towards yield-seeking behaviors, offsetting the diminishing prominence of conventional lending operations. Through a comprehensive examination of advanced economies over the past two decades, our findings reveal a general enhancement in bank stability correlating with the aging of populations. However, the adaptive responses of banks to these demographic changes are potentially introducing tail risks. Given the rapid global shift towards aging societies, our analysis highlights the critical need for policymakers to be proactive and vigilant. This is particularly pertinent considering historical precedents where periods of relative stability have often been harbingers of emerging risks.
Series:
Working Paper No. 2024/118
Subject:
Aging Bank soundness Commercial banks Financial institutions Financial sector policy and analysis Loans Population and demographics
Frequency:
regular
English
Publication Date:
June 14, 2024
ISBN/ISSN:
9798400279447/1018-5941
Stock No:
WPIEA2024118
Format:
Paper
Pages:
51
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