The Macroeconomic Effects of Large Immigration Waves
Electronic Access:
Free Download. Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view this PDF file
Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
Summary:
We propose a novel approach to measure the dynamic macroeconomic effects of immigration on the destination country, combining the analysis of episodes of large immigration waves with instrumental variables techniques. We distinguish the impact of immigration shocks in OECD countries from that of refugee immigration in emerging and developing economies. In OECD, large immigration waves raise domestic output and productivity in both the short and the medium term, pointing to significant dynamic gains for the host economy. We find no evidence of negative effects on aggregate employment of the native-born population. In contrast, our analysis of large refugee flows into emerging and developing countries does not find clear evidence of macroeconomic effects on the host country, a conclusion in line with a growing body of evidence that refugee immigrants are at disadvantage compared to other type of immigrants.
Series:
Working Paper No. 2023/259
Subject:
Econometric analysis Employment Estimation techniques Labor Migration Population and demographics Production Total factor productivity
Frequency:
regular
English
Publication Date:
December 15, 2023
ISBN/ISSN:
9798400261794/1018-5941
Stock No:
WPIEA2023259
Format:
Paper
Pages:
19
Please address any questions about this title to publications@imf.org