Spillovers from Russia to Neighboring Countries: Transmission Channels and Policy Options
Electronic Access:
Free Download. Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view this PDF file
Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
Summary:
This paper studies how output fluctuations in Russia are transmitted internationally. Using vector autoregression (VAR) and dynamic panel models, the paper finds that Russia’s output fluctuations are an important driver of output fluctuations of countries in the region, especially for oil importers, and are transmitted increasingly via trade and market confidence channels. The magnitude of cross-border spillovers is larger for countries with relatively high bilateral trade concentration, low export diversification, and weak external buffers. The paper also finds evidence that stronger public institutional quality- especially in the fiscal area- may help insulate countries from volatility in the Russian sovereign debt market.
Series:
Working Paper No. 2023/185
Subject:
Balance of payments Business cycles Economic growth Exports Financial sector policy and analysis International trade Oil prices Prices Remittances Spillovers
Frequency:
regular
English
Publication Date:
September 8, 2023
ISBN/ISSN:
9798400254871/1018-5941
Stock No:
WPIEA2023185
Format:
Paper
Pages:
46
Please address any questions about this title to publications@imf.org