Constructing a Positive Shock: Growth Through the Lens of Option Pricing

Author/Editor:

Mehmet Cangul

Publication Date:

July 28, 2023

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary:

Low-income economies face negative shocks whose frequency and disproportionate impact overcome growth trajectories, producing a negative drift. COVID-19 was the latest such episode. To escape this negative drift, and build a durable recovery, there is a need for a counter-balancing force: to construct a positive shock. Growth is realized through decisions that fall under two categories, routine and non-linear. While routine decisions modify existing economic behavior along the same path, non-linear decisions describe riskier options that involve transformation. Option pricing theory can be useful to describe the latter, and construct the positive shock required to escape the negative drift.

Series:

Working Paper No. 2023/152

Subject:

Frequency:

regular

English

Publication Date:

July 28, 2023

ISBN/ISSN:

9798400246340/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2023152

Format:

Paper

Pages:

27

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