The Impact of Climate Policy on Oil and Gas Investment: Evidence from Firm-Level Data

Author/Editor:

Christian Bogmans ; Andrea Pescatori ; Ervin Prifti

Publication Date:

June 30, 2023

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary:

Using a text-based firm-level measure of climate policy exposure, we show that climate policies have led to a global decline of 6.5 percent in investment among publicly traded oil and gas companies between 2015 and 2019, with European companies experiencing the most significant impact. Similarly, climate policy uncertainty has also had a negative impact. Results support the Neoclassical investment model, which predicts a pre-emptive cut in investment in reaction to downward shifts in prospective demand, in contrast with the “green paradox” that predicts an increase in current investment to shift production toward the present.

Series:

Working Paper No. 2023/140

Subject:

Frequency:

regular

English

Publication Date:

June 30, 2023

ISBN/ISSN:

9798400248443/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2023140

Format:

Paper

Pages:

46

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