Measuring Quarterly Economic Growth from Outer Space
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Summary:
This paper presents a novel framework to estimate the elasticity between nighttime lights and quarterly economic activity. The relationship is identified by accounting for varying degrees of measurement errors in nighttime light data across countries. The estimated elasticity is 1.55 for emerging markets and developing economies, ranging from 1.36 to 1.81 across country groups and robust to different model specifications. The paper uses a light-adjusted measure of quarterly economic activity to show that higher levels of development, statistical capacity, and voice and accountability are associated with more precise national accounts data. The elasticity allows quantification of subnational economic impacts. During the COVID-19 pandemic, regions with higher levels of development and population density experienced larger declines in economic activity.
Series:
Working Paper No. 2022/109
Subject:
COVID-19 Econometric analysis GDP measurement Health National accounts Population and demographics Vector autoregression
Frequency:
regular
English
Publication Date:
June 3, 2022
ISBN/ISSN:
9798400211553/1018-5941
Stock No:
WPIEA2022109
Pages:
45
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